Assessing whether fine grid models provide better predictions of surges

This project ran fine grid models to forecast water surges and compared them to surge data from two different sets of gauges to strengthen existing data.

• From: Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management Research and Development Programme and Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs
• Published: 11 February 2021

• Category: Understanding risks from all sources of flooding
• Topics: Coast, Flood forecasting, Hydrology, Modelling and Monitoring and detection
• Project status: Completed
• Project code: FD1203
• Date of completion: 31 March 2000

Documents

Fine grid surge model evaluation - final report (49KB) WORD

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Details

This project investigated whether fine grid models of surges in water bodies can provide better prediction forecasts rather than large-scale models currently used.

The fine grid surges were generated by:

• wind
• atmospheric pressure
• tides

It was hoped that fine grid models would improve how surges are predicted to strengthen the data used to set flood defence policy.

The fine grid models were run for periods of up to one year on the central South Coast, the eastern Irish Sea and the central East Coast. Model results were compared with surges derived from tide gauges of the national ‘A’ class network. This research was maintained by the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory (POL) for Defra and from additional gauges run by the Environment Agency.

This project ran during 2000 at a cost of £30,000.

Published 11 February 2021