Best practice in transfer function modelling
This project explored the latest research against how the Environment Agency currently uses these models in flood forecasting to make recommendations for the future.
Documents
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Details
Transfer Function rainfall-runoff models (models that predict the likely runoff from every possible level of rainfall using a mathematical formula) are accepted as a valid approach to flood forecasting. These models have been used for more than twenty years. However, there are some known problems with using them.
This study was commissioned to review the latest developments in Transfer Function models for predicting flooding from rivers. It also reviews how the Environment Agency uses them. This included looking at differences between regional EA teams, to work out the best way of using these models and to give guidance on how to develop them. Finally, it explored recommendations for future research into this area.
As part of the study, researchers consulted with key experts in Transfer Function modelling, but did not examine the various software packages available from vendors.
The Technical Report covers a range of topics, including:
- current knowledge about setting up and checking the accuracy of models
- modelling assumptions
- techniques for updating these assumptions
- uncertainty - modelling
- how sensitive the models are to different inputs
Best practice approaches are also reported where these could be identified. This also includes recommendations for future research and operational improvements in the way that Transfer Function models are used within the Agency.
The project started in 2000 and was completed in 2003.