Communication and dissemination of probabilistic flood forecasts

This study explored the best of communicating flood risk forecasts involving a probability calculation for various types of audience.

Documents

Communication and dissemination of probabilistic flood forecasts - summary (219KB) PDF

Communication and dissemination of probabilistic flood forecasts - technical report (2.8MB) PDF

Literature review: Communication and dissemination of probabilistic flood warnings - summary (218KB) PDF

Literature review 1: How the public and professional partners make sense of information about risk and uncertainty – technical report (2.6MB) PDF

Literature review 2: Communicating risk and uncertainty in flood warnings (EA and Defra material) - technical report (2.1MB) PDF

Literature review 3: Communication and dissemination of probabilistic flood warnings (international material) - technical report (3.4MB) PDF

Details

This research aimed to establish the best way of communicating flood risk for different groups, including:

  • professional partners
  • internal staff
  • small businesses
  • the general public

It included a literature review into methods used internationally to communicate hazards and weather warnings. It also looked at how the public and professionals make sense of communications that involve messages around risk.

Researchers also held focus groups before making a series of recommendations to inform the Environment Agency’s policy on communicating risk probabilities.

Findings

This study showed that there’s a general appetite amongst internal staff, professional partners, small businesses and the general public to receive flood risk information using probabilities. Particularly from those that have experienced flooding in the past. It made 21 recommendations for how to approach rolling out these forecasts.

The project was started in 2007 and completed in 2009.

Updates to this page

Published 18 February 2021