Forecasting how often rivers will flood using continuous data models
This project exploited improvements in data gathering and modelling to create a method of forecasting how often and how much a river will flood.
Documents
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Details
This project proposed a new way of predicting how often on average particular rivers will flood and at what levels. This information is vital to managing flood risk from rivers and was previously based largely on the 1999 Flood Estimation Handbook.
The method outlined in this project paves the way for a new approach for this type of forecasting. This is based on recent advances in how data is gathered and in modelling how water runs off the land.
The technical report is designed to be read as a stand-alone document and includes details of:
- the data
- the modelling
- how the method can be extended nationally
- an estimate of the levels of uncertainty involved
- recommendations for the way the method should be used in practice
The project started in 2001 and was completed in 2005 at a cost of £436,026.