Prediction of large scale long-term coastal geomorphological changes and responses (phase 1- conceptional model development)

A model for predicting long term changes in coastal landscapes. This study created a framework to predict how coastal environments will change as a result of natural processes and man-made interventions.

• From: Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management Research and Development Programme and Environment Agency
• Published: 18 February 2021

• Category: Understanding risks from all sources of flooding
• Topics: Adaptation, Asset system optimisation, Climate change, Coast, Coastal erosion, Decision making with uncertainty, Flood risk assessment, Modelling, Non-stationarity, Sea level rise
• Project status: Completed
• Project code: SC060074
• Date of completion: 31 December 2009

Documents

Characterisation and prediction of large scale, long term change of coastal geomorphological behaviours - summary (129KB) PDF

Characterisation and prediction of large scale, long term change of coastal geomorphological behaviours - extended summary (1.8MB) PDF

Characterisation and prediction of large scale, long term change of coastal geomorphological behaviours - technical report (6.8MB) PDF

Characterisation and prediction of large scale, long term coastal geomorphological change: Proof of concept modelling - technical report (3.4MB) PDF

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Details

This project developed a framework and a conceptual model to predict long-term changes in the coastal landscape. This includes changes that happen as a result of human activities. It analyses the local geomorphology as a whole, and explores the links between all its different elements. This includes features such as open coast or estuary made up of beaches, sea cliffs or saltmarshes, and geological controls such as headlands and the supply of sediments.

it’s vital to be able to understand and predict these changes in order to assess the risks of flooding and erosion. The model enables people working in and around a coastline to understand how it has evolved up until now, and how it might continue to change. This is as a result of natural processes and human interventions, such as defences and sea walls, as well as the effects of climate change.

This project was started in 2007 and completed in 2009.

Published 18 February 2021