Regionalised impacts of climate change on flood flows

This project assessed whether a regional approach could be used for guidance on how climate change might affect the highest water flows in specific catchments.

Documents

Regionalised impacts of climate change on flood flows - final report (608 KB) PDF

Regionalised impacts of climate change on flood flows - final report supplement (45 KB) PDF

Regionalised impacts of climate change on flood flows - technical report (8 MB) PDF

Regionalised impacts of climate change on flood flows: hydrological Models, catchments and calibration - milestone report (2 MB) PDF

Regionalised impacts of climate change on flood flows: rationale for definition of climate change scenarios and sensitivity framework - milestone report (2 MB) PDF

Regionalised impacts of climate change on flood flows: identification of flood response types for Britain - milestone report (5 MB) PDF

Regionalised impacts of climate change on flood flows: regionalising the flood response types in Britain - milestone report (3 MB) PDF

Regionalised impacts of climate change on flood flows: uncertainty analysis - milestone report (6 MB) PDF

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Details

This project assessed whether a regional, rather than national, approach could be used for guidance on how climate change might affect the highest water flows in specific catchments.

Background

‘The flood and coastal defence project appraisal guidance’ - FCDPAG3 (October 2006) recommended increasing the predictions of peak flows between 2025 and 2115 by 20% in all catchments, based on evidence available at the time. This project was designed to increase the evidence available to see if a more targeted regional approach could be used.

The research found that the 20% increase, which had been seen as a precaution rather than necessarily accurate, was in fact no longer sufficient. it did not cover predicted changes in many catchments. It also found strong evidence that the way a catchment responds to climate change is influenced by factors specific to that catchment. This means that a single national increase might not be the most useful approach. It might be possible to develop regional allowances based on the type of catchment.

Outcome

The project provided vital information for developing regional guidance on climate change and flood flows in Britain (since carried out as part of project FD2648, ‘Practicalities for implementing regionalised allowances for climate change on flood flows’).

The project was started in 2005 and completed in 2009 at a cost of £236,683.

Updates to this page

Published 19 February 2021