Storm scale numerical modelling
A project investigating whether a storm version of the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model would make it easier to predict floods further ahead.
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Details
Objectives
This project investigated whether it would be possible to use the Met Office’s Numerical Weather Prediction model (NWP) at a scale that would produce accurate predictions even in extreme events, such as storms.
Background
The model had been used this way in research, but up until now had been limited by the computing power available in day to day operations. Furthermore, to work in events such as storms, it requires being able to focus on weather patterns in fine detail (using 1km grid spacing). This had not previously been possible.
Approach
Radar used up to this point could only provide predictions around three hours ahead. This research project investigated whether using a storm version of the NWP model would be able to predict extreme rain up to 12 hours ahead. It also developed tools for interpreting and presenting the rain predictions to help with predicting floods in day to day operations.
Outcome
This project provided evidence that a storm model could make it much easier to predict the kind of rain that would have high impacts and warn people about floods.
This project ran from 2001 to 2004 at a cost of £90,000.