UK SAF mandate: accessible text descriptions for final stage cost benefit analysis figures
Updated 25 April 2024
© Crown copyright 2024
This publication is licensed under the terms of the Open Government Licence v3.0 except where otherwise stated. To view this licence, visit nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3 or write to the Information Policy Team, The National Archives, Kew, London TW9 4DU, or email: psi@nationalarchives.gov.uk.
Where we have identified any third party copyright information you will need to obtain permission from the copyright holders concerned.
This publication is available at https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/pathway-to-net-zero-aviation-developing-the-uk-sustainable-aviation-fuel-mandate/outcome/uk-saf-mandate-accessible-text-descriptions-for-final-stage-cost-benefit-analysis-figures
These accessible text descriptions relate to figures published in the UK SAF mandate: final stage cost benefit analysis.
Figure 1: SAF mandate trajectory options (2025 to 2040)
Figure 1 is a line graph that shows 2 SAF mandate trajectory options, the baseline trajectory where no SAF mandate is in place and the preferred option as a percentage of total aviation fuel demand from 2025 to 2040. The baseline option starts at 1% in 2025 reaching 1.9% in 2030 and 4.3% in 2040. Option 2 starts at 2% in 2025, reaching 10% in 2030 and 22% in 2040.
Figure 2: illustrative continuation of SAF mandate trajectories out to 2050
Figure 2 is a line graph that shows how the baseline and preferred option SAF mandate trajectories could continue out to 2050. Trajectories out to 2040 are the same as in Figure 1. The baseline reaches 10% in 2050 with the preferred option 1 reaches 50% in 2050.
Figure 3: SAF abatement costs relative to DESNZ carbon appraisal values (2025 to 2040)
Figure 3 is a line graph that shows the estimated abatement costs for different SAF feedstocks compared to DESNZ carbon appraisal values. There are 14 lines in total including 3 DESNZ appraisal values labelled: carbon low, carbon central and carbon high all in 2020 prices.
The remaining 11 lines show the different SAF pathways represented in this work: UCO, tallow, forestry residue, MSW, agricultural residues, waste wood, wet manure, residual waste, imported, point source and DAC.
The carbon low is a relatively horizontal line and has an abatement cost of £130/tCO2e in 2025 and £163/tCO2e in 2040.
The carbon central is a relatively constant line and has an abatement cost of £260/tCO2e in 2025 and £326/tCO2e in 2040.
The carbon high is a relatively constant line and has an abatement cost of £390/tCO2e in 2025 and £489/tCO2e in 2040.
The UCO line is a relatively constant line and has an abatement cost of £199/tCO2e in 2025 and £188/tCO2e in 2040.
The tallow line is a relatively constant line and has an abatement cost of £173/tCO2e in 2025 and £156/tCO2e in 2040.
The remaining lines are relatively constant until 2030 but drop until 2035 and then remain relatively constant until 2040.
The forestry residue line has an abatement cost of £623/tCO2e in 2025, £520/tCO2e in 2030, £170/tCO2e in 2035 and £151/tCO2e in 2040.
The MSW line has an abatement cost of £1,464/tCO2e in 2025, £1,025/tCO2e in 2030, £322/tCO2e and £285/tCO2e in 2040.
The agricultural residue line has an abatement cost of £666/tCO2e in 2025, £565/tCO2e in 2030, £206/tCO2e in 2035 and £186/tCO2e in 2040.
The waste wood line has an abatement cost of £1,695/tCO2e in 2025, £1,194/tCO2e in 2030, £405/tCO2e in 2035 and £364/tCO2e in 2040.
The wet manure line has an abatement cost of £540/tCO2e in 2025, £368/tCO2e in 2030, £33/tCO2e in 2035 and £10/tCO2e in 2040.
The residual waste line has an abatement cost of £23,759/tCO2e in 2025, £2,740/tCO2e in 2030, £587/tCO2e in 2035 and £462/tCO2e in 2040.
The DAC line representing a PtL fuel has an abatement cost of £1,624/tCO2e in 2025, £1,244/tCO2e in 2030, £971/tCO2e in 2035 and £913/tCO2e in 2040.
The imported line representing PtL imported fuels has an abatement cost of £187/tCO2e in 2025, £187/tCO2e in 2030, £179/tCO2e in 2035 and £173/tCO2e in 2040.
The point source line representing a PtL fuel has an abatement cost of £852/tCO2e in 2025, £743/tCO2e in 2030, £573/tCO2e in 2035 and £547/tCO2e in 2040.
Figure 4: HEFA cap relative to total SAF in the fuel mix (2025 to 2040)
Figure 4 is a line graph that shows the HEFA cap and percentage of SAF uptake as a proportion in the total aviation fuel mix.
The HEFA cap line starts at 2% in 2025, increases to 7% in 2030 and remains relatively constant at 8% until 2040.
The percentage of SAF uptake line starts at 2% in 2025, increases to 10% in 2030 and then increases to 22% in 2040.
Figure 5: proportion of PtL relative to total SAF in the fuel mix (2025 to 2040)
Figure 5 is a line graph that shows the percentage of PtL in fuel mix relative to percentage of SAF in total aviation fuel mix.
The PtL line starts at 0% in 2025, increases to 0.5% in 2030 and reaches 3.5% by 2040.
The SAF line starts at 2% in 2025, increases to 10% in 2030 and reaches 22% by 2040.
Figure 6: range of SAF production costs used in analysis
Figure 6 is a boxplot that shows the range of SAF production costs for different fuels such as HEFA, BTL, ATJ, PtL and HTL.
Each fuel has a boxplot for the years 2025, 2030 and 2040.
HEFA:
- in 2025, the production cost ranges from £821/tonne to £1786/tonne, with the median being £1210/tonne and the mean being £1272/tonne
- in 2030 the production cost ranges from £792/tonne to £1741/tonne, with the median being £1177/tonne and the mean being £1236/tonne
- in 2040 the production cost ranges from £764/tonne to £1708/tonne, with the median being £1133/tonne and the mean being £1202/tonne
BtL:
- in 2025, the production cost ranges from £2988/tonne to £6078/tonne, with the median being £3696/tonne and the mean being £4254/tonne
- in 2030 the production cost ranges from £2725/tonne to £5638/tonne, with the median being £3384/tonne and the mean being £3916/tonne
- in 2040 the production cost ranges from £1126/tonne to £2987/tonne, with the median being £1578/tonne and the mean being £1897/tonne
AtJ:
- in 2025, the production cost ranges from £3284/tonne to £8636/tonne, with the median being £5016/tonne and the mean being £5645/tonne
- in 2030 the production cost ranges from £1770/tonne to £4733/tonne, with the median being £2627/tonne and the mean being £3044/tonne
- in 2040 the production cost ranges from £1616/tonne to £4345/tonne, with the median being £2384/tonne and the mean being £2382/tonne
PtL
- in 2025, the production cost ranges from £1884/tonne to £9200/tonne, with the median being £5318/tonne and the mean being £5467/tonne
- in 2030 the production cost ranges from £1394/tonne to £8072/tonne, with the median being £4425/tonne and the mean being £4631/tonne
- in 2040 the production cost ranges from £861/tonne to £7106/tonne, with the median being £3322/tonne and the mean being £3763/tonne
HtL
- in 2025, the production cost ranges from £2927/tonne to £7267/tonne, with the median being £3682/tonne and the mean being £4625/tonne
- in 2030 the production cost ranges from £1704/tonne to £7027/tonne, with the median being £2972/tonne and the mean being £3901/tonne
- in 2040 the production cost ranges from £452/tonne to £4731/tonne, with the median being £1771/tonne and the mean being £2318/tonne
Figure 7: development of UK HEFA technology deployment over time (2024 to 2040)
Figure 7 is a line graph that shows the UK HEFA production compared to the SAF mandate in Mt/year.
The HEFA production line starts at 0.16Mt/year in 2025, increases to 0.32Mt/year in 2030 and reaches 1.28Mt/year in 2040.
The SAF mandate line starts at 0.23Mt/year in 2025, increases to 1.24Mt/year in 2030 and reaches 2.92Mt/year in 2040.
Figure 8. development of UK Non-HEFA SAF technology deployment over time (2025 to 2040)
Figure 8 is a line graph that compares the SAF mandate against UK Non-HEFA SAF production from AFF plants.
There are 2 AFF plant scenarios, AFF50 and AFF25.
The SAF mandate line starts at 0.23Mt/year in 2025, increases to 1.24Mt/year in 2030 and reaches 2.92Mt/year in 2040.
The AFF50 line starts at 0Mt/year in 2025, increases to 0.31Mt/year in 2030 and reaches 1.24Mt/year in 2040.
The AFF25 line starts at 0Mt/year in 2025, increases to 0.15Mt/year in 2030 and reaches 0.62Mt/year in 2040.
Figure 9: development of UK power to liquid technology deployment over time (2025 to 2040)
Figure 9 is a line graph that compares the SAF mandate against PtL production from AFF plants.
There are 2 AFF PtL plant scenarios, AFF PtL25 and AFF PtL50.
The SAF mandate line starts at 0.23Mt/year in 2025, increases to 1.24Mt/year in 2030 and reaches 2.92Mt/year in 2040.
The AFF PtL50 line starts at 0Mt/year in 2025, increases to 0.06Mt/year in 2030 and reaches 0.40Mt/year in 2040.
The AFF PtL25 line starts at 0Mt/year in 2025, increases to 0.03Mt/year in 2030 and reaches 0.20Mt/year in 2040.
Figure 10: total UK SAF technology deployment over time (2025 to 2040)
Figure 10 is a line graph that plots total SAF production by combining different AFF, HEFA and PtL scenario production levels from the previous graphs.
The SAF mandate is also represented. The SAF mandate line starts at 0.23Mt/year in 2025, increases to 1.24Mt/year in 2030 and reaches 2.92Mt/year in 2040.
The AFF50 line starts at 0Mt/year in 2025, increases to 0.31Mt/year in 2030 and reaches 1.24Mt/year in 2040.
The AFF50 + HEFA line starts at 0.16Mt/year in 2025, increases to 0.62Mt/year in 2030 and reaches 2.53Mt/year in 2040.
The AFF50 + HEFA + PTL 50 line starts at 01.6Mt/year in 2025, increases to 0.68Mt/year in 2030 and reaches 2.93Mt/year in 2040.
The AFF25 line starts at 0Mt/year in 2025, increases to 0.15Mt/year in 2030 and reaches 0.62Mt/year in 2040.
The AFF25 + HEFA line starts at 0.16Mt/year in 2025, increases to 0.47Mt/year in 2030 and reaches 1.90Mt/year in 2040.
The AFF25 + HEFA + PtL25 line starts at 0.16Mt/year in 2025, increases to 0.50Mt/year in 2030 and reaches 2.11Mt/year in 2040.
Figure 11: UK HEFA production and feedstock availability (2024 to 2040)
Figure 11 is a line graph that compares total UK HEFA production against a low and high HEFA feedstock scenario.
The total UK HEFA production line starts at 0.16Mt/year in 2025, increases to 0.26Mt/year in 2030 and reaches 1.28Mt/year in 2040.
The high HEFA feedstock line starts at 0.36Mt/year in 2025, decreases to 0.26Mt/year in 2030 and reaches 0.49Mt/year in 2040.
The low HEFA feedstock line starts at 0.33Mt/year in 2025, decreases to 0.12Mt/year in 2030 and reaches 0.24Mt/year in 2040.
Figure 12: UK proportion of global UCO fuels across various import trajectories (2020 to 2040)
Figure 12 is a line graph that shows 3 different UCO fuel import trajectories named used through this analysis: restricted, linear decline and hold to 2029; all as a proportion of global UCO fuel.
The restricted line starts at 11.8%, decreases to 0.7% in 2030 and 0.5% in 2040 before reaching 0.4% in 2050.
The linear decline line starts at 11.8%, decreases to 8.6% in 2030 and 5.3% in 2040 before reaching 2% in 2050.
The hold to 2029 line starts at 11.8%, decreases to 11.4% in 2030 and 6.7% in 2040 before reaching 2% in 2050.
Figure 13: total UK UCO fuel imports across various import trajectories (2020
to 2040)
Figure 13 is a line graph that shows the total volume of 3 different UCO fuel import trajectories used in this analysis named: restricted, linear decline and hold to 2029.
The restricted line starts at 0.4Mt/year and decreases to 0.1Mt/year which stays constant until 2040.
The linear decline line starts at 1.3Mt/year, increases to 1.5Mt/year in 2030, before decreasing to 1.4Mt/year in 2035 and 1.3Mt/year in 2040.
The hold to 2029 line starts at 1.5Mt/year, increases to 2.0Mt/year in 2030, before decreasing to 1.9Mt/year in 2035 and 1.6Mt/year in 2040.
Figure 14: UK non-HEFA generation production and feedstock availability (2025 to 2040)
Figure 14 is a line graph that shows non-HEFA feedstock availability in a low and high scenario against AFF50 and AFF 25 production.
The high feedstock line starts at 7.06Mt/year in 2025, increases to 10.33Mt/year in 2030 and decreases to 5.28Mt/year in 2040.
The low feedstock line starts at 4.48Mt/year in 2025, increases to 5.49Mt/year in 2030 and decreases to 3.11Mt/year in 2040.
The AFF50 line starts at 0Mt/year in 2025, increases to 0.31Mt/year in 2030 and reaches 1.24Mt/year in 2040.
The AFF25 line starts at 0Mt/year in 2025, increases to 0.15Mt/year in 2030 and reaches 0.62Mt/year in 2040.
Figure 15: PtL domestic production and imports split (2025 to 2040)
Figure 15 is a stacked area chart that shows the split between domestic PtL production and PtL imports in comparison to the PtL sub mandate.
This chart assumes PtL production operates at 50% of the maximum available capacity from the AFF grant funding.
The PtL sub mandate line starts at 0Mt/year in 2025, increases to 0.06Mt/year in 2030 before reaching 0.47Mt/year in 2040.
The AFF PtL50 area starts at 0Mt/year in 2025, increases to 0.06Mt/year in 2030 before reaching 0.4Mt/year in 2040.
The PtL imports area remains at 0Mt/year in 2025 increases to 0.03Mt/year in 2030 before reaching 0.276Mt/year in 2040.
Figure 16: PtL domestic production and imports split (2025 to 2040)
Figure 16 is a stacked area chart that shows the split between domestic PtL production and PtL imports in comparison to the PtL sub mandate.
This chart assumes PtL production operates at 25% of the maximum available capacity from the AFF grant funding.
The PtL sub mandate line starts at 0Mt/year in 2025, increases to 0.06Mt/year in 2030 before reaching 0.47Mt/year in 2040.
The AFF PtL25 area starts at 0Mt/year in 2025, increases to 0.03Mt/year in 2030 before reaching 0.2Mt/year in 2040.
The PtL imports area remains at 0Mt/year in 2025 but increases to 0.03Mt/year in 2030 before reaching 0.27Mt/year in 2040.
Figure 17: scenario A and B SAF mandate fuel mix (2025 to 2040)
Figure 17 is a stacked area chart that shows SAF fuel mix under scenario A and B.
The SAF mandate line starts at 0.23Mt/year in 2025m increases to 1.24Mt/year before it reaches 2.92Mt/year in 2040.
The HEFA domestic area starts at 0.16Mt/year in 2025, increases to 0.18Mt/year in 2030 before reaching 0.35Mt/year in 2040.
The HEFA imported area starts at 0.07Mt/year in 2025, increases to 0.68Mt/year in 2030 and fluctuates before reaching 0.68Mt/year again in 2040.
The non-HEFA area starts at 0.00Mt/year in 2025, increases to 0.31Mt/year in 2030 before reaching 1.41Mt/year in 2040.
The PtL area starts at 0.00Mt/year in 2025, increases to 0.06Mt/year in 2030 before reaching 0.47Mt/year in 2040.
Figure 18: scenario C SAF mandate fuel mix (2025 to 2040)
Figure 18 is a stacked area chart that shows SAF fuel mix under scenario C.
The SAF mandate line starts at 0.23Mt/year in 2025, increases to 1.24Mt/year before it reaches 2.92Mt/year in 2040.
The HEFA domestic area starts at 0.16Mt/year in 2025, decreases to 0.09Mt/year in 2030 before reaching 0.17Mt/year in 2040.
The HEFA imported area starts at 0.07Mt/year in 2025, increases to 0.09Mt/year in 2030 and remains at 0.09Mt/year in 2040.
The non-HEFA area starts at 0.00Mt/year in 2025, increases to 0.16Mt/year in 2030 before reaching 0.66Mt/year in 2040.
The PtL area starts at 0.00Mt/year in 2025, increases to 0.06Mt/year in 2030 before reaching 0.47Mt/year in 2040.
Figure 19: annual emission reduction benefits from the aviation sector
Figure 19 is a line graph that compares the annual emission reduction benefits from the aviation sector under scenarios A, B and C.
The scenario A line starts at 0.3MtCO2e per year in 2025, increases to 2.7MtCO2e per year in 2030 and reaches 6.3MtCO2e per year in 2040.
The scenario B line starts at 0.3MtCO2e per year in 2025, increases to 2.7MtCO2e per year in 2030 and reaches 6.3MtCO2e per year in 2040.
The scenario C line starts at 0.3MtCO2e per year in 2025, increases to 0.5MtCO2e per year in 2030 and reaches 2.9MtCO2e per year in 2040.
Figure 20: indirect loss in emission reduction in the road sector
Figure 20 is a line graph that shows the indirect loss in emissions reduction in the road sector under scenarios A, B and C.
The scenario A line has no indirect loss in carbon savings in the road sector.
The scenario B line has a loss of 0.3MtCO2e in 2025, increases to 1.4MtCO2e in 2030 with no loss of emission reductions in the road sector taking place by 2040.
The scenario C line has a loss of 0.4MtCO2e in 2025 but in 2030 and 2040 there is no loss in carbon savings.
Figure 21: hydrogen and electricity use (2025 to 2040) – domestic
Figure 21 is a line graph that shows the domestic hydrogen and electricity use of the SAF mandate. This graph has 4 different scenarios: hydrogen low, hydrogen high, electricity low and electricity high.
The hydrogen low line starts at 0.2TWh and increases to 0.6TWh in 2030 before reaching 3.9TWh in 2040.
The hydrogen high line starts at 0.2TWh and increases to 1.5TWh in 2030 before reaching 7.4TWh in 2040.
The electricity low line starts at 0.4TWh and increases to 0.9TWh in 2030 before reaching 6TWh in 2040.
The electricity high line starts at 0.4TWh and increases to 2.2TWh in 2030 before reaching 11.2TWh in 2040.
Figure 22: hydrogen and electricity use (2025 to 2040) – including imports
Figure 22 is a line graph that shows the hydrogen and electricity use of the SAF mandate when including imports. This graph has 4 different scenarios: hydrogen low, hydrogen high, electricity low and electricity high.
The hydrogen low line starts at 0.3TWh and increases to 1.3TWh in 2030 before reaching 12.6TWh in 2040.
The hydrogen high line starts at 0.3TWh and increases to 2.6TWh in 2030 before reaching 13.7TWh in 2040.
The electricity low line starts at 0.5TWh and increases to 2.0TWh in 2030 before reaching 19.2TWh in 2040.
The electricity high line starts at 0.5TWh and increases to 4.0TWh in 2030 before reaching 20.8TWh in 2040.