Guidance

Combustion power: examples for your adapting to climate change risk assessment

Updated 17 May 2023

Applies to England

Possible impacts and mitigation measures to consider when preparing your climate change risk assessment.

Summer daily maximum temperature

This may be around 7°C higher compared to average summer temperatures now, with the potential to reach extreme temperatures as high as over 40°C with increasing frequency based on today’s values.

Impact 1

An increase in cooling water temperature may cause a drop in efficiency, higher temperature discharges or decrease in operation.

The mitigation for this could include:

• making sure temperature limits are set correctly and that measures are in place to remain in compliance
• limiting operations during high temperatures

Impact 2

The higher temperatures could lead to increased resistance of wiring circuits and in generators, with an increased risk of fire.

The mitigation for this could include:

• limiting operations during high temperatures
• reviewing ventilation of enclosed spaces around generators

Winter daily maximum temperature

This could be up to 4°C more than the current average with the potential for more extreme temperatures, both warmer and colder than present.

Impact 1

Increases in temperature may cause a drop in efficiency, but a lower risk than in summer.

The mitigation for this could include:

• limiting operations during high temperatures
• using lagging, but in a manner that accounts for high temperature changes between seasons

Daily extreme rainfall

Daily rainfall intensity could increase by up to 20% on today’s values.

Impact 1

Critical areas of the site could see flash flooding.

The mitigation for this could include protection and raising of critical equipment.

Impact 2

Bunded areas could get flooded, reducing their capacity.

The mitigation for this could include:

• installing bund level detection systems
• increasing the capacity of bunds

Impact 3

Surface water run-off systems need to be clear and account for increased flows to prevent them being overwhelmed.

The mitigation for this could include:

• redoing capacity calculations to make sure trigger points are clear and action plans can be instigated
• increasing the surface water system capacity

Impact 4

Potential for increased site surface water and flooding.

Mitigation for this would be to prepare flood plan with reference to the guidance Preparing for flooding: A guide for sites regulated under EPR and COMAH.

This should include:

• identification and risk assessment of process equipment and services at greatest risk from flooding
• provision of emergency pumps to remove floodwater and identification of lowest risk location for discharge of floodwaters
• protection of control and electrical systems
• identification and protection of flat bottom tanks at risk of floating in floodwater

Average winter rainfall

Average winter rainfall may increase by over 40% on today’s averages.

Impact 1

Potential for increased site surface water and flooding.

Mitigation for this would be to prepare flood plan with reference to the guidance Preparing for flooding: A guide for sites regulated under EPR and COMAH.

This should include:

• identification and risk assessment of process equipment and services at greatest risk from flooding
• provision of emergency pumps to remove floodwater and identification of lowest risk location for discharge of floodwaters
• protection of control and electrical systems
• identification and protection of flat bottom tanks at risk of floating in floodwater

Impact 2

Bunded areas could get flooded, reducing their capacity.

The mitigation for this could include:

• installing bund level detection systems
• increasing the capacity of bunds

Impact 3

Surface water run off systems need to be clear and account for increased flows to prevent them being overwhelmed.

The mitigation for this could include:

• redoing capacity calculations to make sure trigger points are clear and action plans can be instigated
• increasing the surface water system capacity

Sea level rise

Sea level rise which could be as much as 0.6m higher compared to today’s level.

Impact 1

If a site is located near the coast there is potential increased risk of flooding.

The mitigation for this would be to review flood defences around coastal landfill sites and to produce a flood plan with reference to the guidance Preparing for flooding: A guide for sites regulated under EPR and COMAH.

This should include:

• identification and risk assessment of process equipment and services at greatest risk from flooding
• provision of emergency pumps to remove floodwater and identification of lowest risk location for discharge of floodwaters
• protection of control and electrical systems
• identification and protection of flat bottom tanks at risk of floating in floodwater

Impact 2

Site surface water systems and effluent treatment plant may become overwhelmed and unable to discharge for prolonged periods due to backing up.

The mitigation for this would be to make sure site drainage systems and effluent treatment plant has enough storage or treatment capacity.

Drier summers

Summers could see potentially up to 40% less rain than now.

Impact 1

The site may be subject to cooling water restrictions of temperature and volume.

The mitigation for this would be to:

• limit operations during high temperatures
• make sure temperature limits are set correctly and that measures in place to remain in compliance

Impact 2

Potential risks of fire in biomass fuel and waste storage facilities as the ambient moisture levels would be lower.

Mitigation for this would be changes in storage methods, with more internal or covering of stockpiles being required.

River flow

The flow in the watercourses could be 50% more than now at its peak, and 80% less than now at its lowest.

Impact 1

The site may be subject to cooling water restrictions of temperature and volume.

The mitigation for this would be to make sure temperature limits are set correctly and that measures in place to remain in compliance.

Impact 2

There is likely to be an increased impact on the river due to an increased temperature and the impact of the emission on lower flows.

The mitigation for this could be to limit operation in times of low river flow.

Storms

Storms could see a change in frequency and intensity. The unique combination of increased wind speeds, increased rainfall, and lightning during these events provides the potential for more extreme storm impacts.

Storms and high winds could damage building structures with increased potential for fugitive emissions.

The mitigation for this could include:

• reviewing the design of vulnerable tall structures, stacks and buildings
• reviewing wind loading calculations, providing reinforcement if necessary
• maintaining building integrity