Guidance

How to fill in a climate change risk assessment worksheet

Updated 7 October 2021

This guidance was withdrawn on 31 August 2022

The Environment Agency has removed the requirement to consider climate change adaptation from the permit application process. Instead, you need to integrate climate change adaptation into your management system. Use the industry sector examples for your risk assessment when you do this.”

Applies to England

Each worksheet, tailored to your own location and river basin district, lists potential changes in weather and climate that may occur between now and 2050.

You can add in other changes to the climate (climate variables) if you think they could affect your operations.

The worksheet will help you do a qualitative risk assessment of how your site and processes will be affected by climate change. It also has space for you to record your proposed mitigation measures as well as further assessment once the proposed mitigation is accounted for.

Some of the same weather and climate change information is used as part of the spatial planning process. If you’ve done a flood risk assessment as part of a planning application for your site, you can use the evidence of impacts and mitigation from that assessment.

Complete the risk assessment worksheet in 2 stages:

1. Assess the impacts from each of the weather and climate change scenarios. Your risk score is the likelihood of something happening multiplied by the severity of its impact.
2. If your risk score is 5 or more, you must propose mitigation measures and then re-assess the risk considering your mitigation measures.

Calculate your risk score using the risk scoring matrix in this guide.

If any of your scores are 5 or more after you’ve taken mitigation measures into account, the Environment Agency we may specify actions in your permit that you must do to reduce potential risk.

You must complete all the rows in the worksheet.

Consider:

• critical thresholds (where a ‘tipping point’ is reached, for example a specific temperature where site processes cannot operate safely)
• changes to averages (for example an entire summer of higher than expected rainfall that causes waterlogging)
• where hazards may combine to cause more impacts

Some of the climate change variables may have similar effects. For example, higher daily summer temperatures and drier summers may reduce recharge to an aquifer, which may reduce the availability of water for abstraction from groundwater or rivers. Complete the rows for both variables.

Each climate change variable may also have more than one effect. For example, higher average winter rainfall may cause increased groundwater and surface water flooding. Score each impact individually.

1. Explanation of the columns in the worksheet

1.1 Climate variables (first column in the worksheet)

You must consider the risk to your site from:

• flooding caused by changes in rainfall, river levels and sea level
• prolonged dry weather and drought caused by dry summers and low river flows

1.2 Increased rainfall and river flow (changing climate variables 3, 4 and 7 in the worksheet)

Higher rainfall, particularly rainfall intensity, is likely to increase the flow and levels in rivers and the risk of flooding. More extreme rainfall is likely to increase the risk of flooding from surface water.

Find out about the risk of flooding from rivers, sea and surface water.

1.3 Sea level rise (changing climate variable number 5 in the worksheet)

Sea level rise will affect the coast and low-lying land close to inland rivers. It will also affect rivers and other water bodies further inland. Even if you are not near the coast, critical processes for your business may still be affected (for example, land spreading).

Use Magic Map to estimate your site’s vulnerability to sea level rise.

1.4 Drier summers and reduced river flow (changing climate variables 6 and 7 in the worksheet)

Drier summers and reduced river flows could lead to reduced water availability. To help you estimate your site’s vulnerability to reduced water availability, find out:

• which catchment you are in
• which abstraction licence strategy applies to your site – see the ‘resource availability’ section of the relevant strategy document to identify water availability at your site

1.5 Column A: Impact

Will predicted weather and climate change stop you meeting the conditions in your permit? Think about anything that might happen, rather than the most likely things to happen. You can prioritise them in column B.

Use existing records of potential hazards. Think about any processes which may be climate-dependent or temperature-sensitive and any thresholds, for example:

• is there a tipping point when certain issues become critical?
• will higher temperatures put your processes under pressure?
• will low flow in a watercourse cause problems with discharge limits?
• could flooding interrupt operations or lead to an uncontrolled release of pollutants?

You must show that you understand the impacts your site and operations may experience. Think about this as an extension of your accident management plan where you already consider your risks.

You can use new lines to add other climate variables if you think they could impact your operations.

1.6 B: Likelihood

Estimate the likelihood of extreme weather impacting your site using the risk scoring matrix. Enter the corresponding numerical score into the worksheet.

1.7 C: Severity

Estimate the severity of the potential impact and permit breach using the risk scoring matrix. Enter the corresponding numerical score into the worksheet.

1.8 D: Risk

Multiply the scores for likelihood and severity together. Enter the resulting risk score in column D.

If your risk score is 5 or more, describe your mitigation measures. Re-do the risk assessment taking these measures into account by completing columns E to H.

1.9 E: Mitigation

For each weather or climate variable with a score of 5 or more, describe your proposed mitigation measures. These may include changes such as:

• more drains or changed processes
• gathering more information
• doing a more detailed risk assessment

Where possible, select mitigation measures which do not increase your contribution to the causes of climate change.

1.10 F: Likelihood (after mitigation)

Estimate the likelihood of the risk occurring, considering the mitigation measures you’ve proposed. Use the risk scoring matrix and enter the corresponding numerical score into the worksheet.

1.11 G: Severity (after mitigation)

Estimate the residual consequences of the impact. Consider the mitigation measures proposed. Use the risk scoring matrix and enter the corresponding numerical score into the worksheet.

1.12 H: Residual risk

Multiply the scores for likelihood and severity. Enter the resulting risk score in column H.

2. Risk scoring matrix

Assess the impacts from each of the weather and climate change scenarios and calculate your risk score using the risk scoring matrix.

Your risk score is the likelihood of something happening multiplied by the severity of its impact.

	Severe impact (score 4)	Medium impact (score 3)	Mild impact (score 2)	Minor impact (score 1)
Highly likely (score 4)	16	12	8	4
Likely (score 3)	12	9	6	3
Low likelihood (score 2)	8	6	4	2
Unlikely (score 1)	4	3	2	1

2.1 Key

Risk categories:

• 12 to 16: high
• 8 to 9: moderate to high
• 4 to 6: moderate to low
• 1 to 3: low

Severity of impact:

• severe impact: short-term, acute impact to operations resulting in permanent compliance breaches
• medium impact: short-term, acute impact to operations resulting in multiple temporary compliance breaches
• mild impact: short-term, acute impact to operations resulting in single temporary compliance breach
• minor impact: short or long-term impact to operations resulting in additional measures for compliance

Likelihood:

• highly likely: event appears very likely in the short term and almost inevitable over the long term, or there is evidence of the event already happening
• likely: it is probable that an event will occur, or circumstances are such that the event is not inevitable, but possible in the short term and likely over the long term
• low likelihood: circumstances are such that an event could occur, but it is not certain even in the long term that an event would occur and it is less likely in the short term
• unlikely: circumstances are such that it is improbable the event would occur even in the long term

3. The data the worksheets are based on

The worksheets are based on data from the UK climate projections 2009 (UKCP09). UK climate projections 2018 (UKCP18) is broadly consistent with UKCP09 so the worksheets are still valid for screening risk.

The worksheets provide changes for river basin districts consistent with a 4°C rise in global mean temperature by the end of the century.

The data is from UK datasets and existing guidance. The values are precautionary – they will normally represent an upper limit on possible climate change.

There will always be some uncertainty associated with future climate change projections. However, you need to be aware of changing climate risks using the best available evidence. The worksheets are a starting point to help you discuss and consider potential impacts.

Contact the Environment Agency if you want to see detailed evidence of the data and figures they used.