Guidance

Business Critical Models in the Ministry of Defence in 2022

Published 20 December 2022

1. We are publishing a revised list of the MOD’s business critical models^{[footnote 1]} as of 1 April 2022 as part of our response to the Macpherson Review of Quality Assurance of Analytical Models. We have continued to regularly update and publish a list of the Department’s business critical models on our website. The list of business critical models is expected to change over time as existing models are revised or retired and new models added. The list that has been published represents the most up-to-date version and supersedes any previously published lists.

Background

2. Following the problems in the award process for the InterCity West Coast franchise by the Department of Transport, Sir Nick Macpherson, Permanent Secretary at the Treasury, carried out a review of the quality assurance of analytical models that inform policy across government. The review was published in March 2013 and made a number of recommendations: Review of quality assurance of government models.

How have we implemented the Macpherson Review?

3. As required by the Macpherson Review, our governance statement must confirm that we have an appropriate quality assurance framework for analytical models. Our governance statement is published in the Department’s Annual Report and Accounts. We also asked each Arm’s Length Body that has one or more business critical models to confirm their arrangements are appropriate in their annual Assurance Statement.

4. MOD has well established arrangements already. To further strengthen our processes and documentation - as well as our culture and the environment in which quality assurance takes place - we have:

• embedded quality assurance of analytical models into the Standards workstream of the Department’s Analysis Function and have now published guidance which is available across the Department;

• continued to improve our governance arrangements, for example engaging with each area of the Department that produces analysis to ensure that they understand the requirements and that each business critical model has a Senior Responsible Owner. This year we have continued to expand our coverage of models across Defence;

• continued to promote transparency by publishing a list of our business critical models. This list is updated regularly and any changes therefore reflect the churn of models in Defence, with some being retired and other new models coming into service;

• promoted a pro-quality assurance culture, for example by using Modelling Champions in key organisations and, where appropriate, including quality assurance as a work objective for staff.

1. As suggested by the Macpherson Review, we define a model as business critical if it drives key financial and funding decisions, it is essential to the achievement of our business plan, or if error could lead to serious financial, legal or reputational damage. ↩