Official Statistics

Background and methodology: Cold Weather Payment estimates

Updated 10 April 2019

Applies to England, Scotland and Wales

Description of the Cold Weather Payments scheme

The Social Fund Cold Weather Payments scheme provides help to individuals on benefits who are the most vulnerable to the cold:

• older people in receipt of Pension Credit
• disabled adults, families with a disabled child or families with a child under 5, who are in receipt of Universal Credit or one of the following legacy benefits:
  • income-based Jobseeker’s Allowance
  • income-related Employment and Support Allowance
  • Income Support

The scheme runs from 1 November to 31 March each year. This period is referred to as the Cold Weather Payment season.

During this period, the daily average temperatures are measured by the Met Office at a network of 94 weather stations across Great Britain. Each residential postcode area in the country is linked to 1 of these weather stations.

A payment of £25 is automatically made to those eligible in the coverage area of each weather station when the average temperature has been recorded as, or is forecast to be, zero degrees Celsius or below over 7 consecutive days.

How Cold Weather Payments are determined

1. The Cold Weather Payment scheme is the responsibility of the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP), supported by the Met Office.

2. The scheme links postcode districts to weather stations that report to the Met Office on a daily basis. The Met Office takes account of topography, the extent of built-up areas and the distance from available weather stations. Each postcode district is assigned to a weather station with the most similar climate in terms of 1981 to 2010 average winter temperature.

3. The final postcode listings are agreed by DWP and this postcode to weather station mapping will be used throughout the Cold Weather Payment season and will not be reviewed further until the following year.

4. Every day, throughout the Cold Weather Payment season, the Met Office records the average daily temperature from each of the 94 Weather Stations. The Met Office then uses the daily averages from the previous 7 days to produce a single 7 day average covering the last 7 days. They also forecast what the 7 day average will be over the next 7 days.

5. DWP uses this information to determine whether any weather stations have “triggered” for a Cold Weather Payment. This will be the case if the recorded or forecasted 7 day average temperature is zero degrees Celsius or below and there are no overlapping periods for which a Cold Weather Payment has already been made.

6. In a case of a trigger, information on the location of that trigger is entered into the relevant benefit systems. A payment of £25 will be automatically issued to any eligible person living in the area covered by that weather station. The recipient should receive the payment within 14 days

What the statistical release provides

The statistical release provides estimates of the numbers of individuals eligible for Cold Weather Payments in Great Britain in 2018 to 2019 as well as weekly updates on the number of triggers for Cold Weather Payments throughout the season.

These estimates are based on eligible individuals in receipt of:

• Pension Credit
• income-based Jobseeker’s Allowance
• income-related Employment and Support Allowance
• Income Support
• Universal Credit

The main spreadsheet accompanying this document contains the following tables:

Table 1

Cold Weather Payment estimates in Great Britain since 1 November 2018. Estimates of the number of eligible recipients and payments made for Cold Weather Payments, at the start of the season, split by country and receipt of Pension Credit. Number of triggers, also split by country, since 1 November 2018 to date.

Table 2

Weekly and Monthly Cold Weather Payment estimates made in Great Britain since 1 November 2018. Estimates of the number of eligible recipients, split by month and week that payments were triggered.

Table 3

Cold Weather Payment estimates by Weather Station since 1 November 2018. Estimates of the number of eligible recipients in each weather station area, and the number of triggers in each.

This spreadsheet will be updated on a weekly basis throughout the 2018 to 2019 Cold Weather Payment season.

The first publication was on the 5 December 2018 and the last will be on 10 April 2019, with a 2 week break over Christmas and the New Year. A full timetable for the release is given in Table 2 of the main spreadsheet.

The Weather Stations and Postcodes spreadsheet accompanying this document provides details of the weather stations used in 2018 to 2019 and their coverage areas.

How these estimates are calculated

DWP does not collect regular information on the exact number of Cold Weather Payments made throughout the winter due to the time and cost that would be involved in tracking this. We instead report on triggers and an estimate of the number of eligible recipients made at the start of the season.

This information can be used to calculate weekly estimates of the number of Cold Weather Payments made.

Estimation of eligible recipients

A count of the number of recipients eligible for Cold Weather Payments in receipt of one of the qualifying benefits was made on the 27 October 2018. These figures were produced by weather station area and qualifying benefit.

Note, the number of eligible recipients is not necessarily the total number of individuals benefitting from a Cold Weather Payment. Any individuals making a joint claim for 1 of the qualifying benefits, such as a couple living together, will receive 1 payment overall rather than 1 each.

In addition, for the first time an estimate of the number of Universal Credit claimants, that are eligible for Cold Weather Payments at the beginning of the cold weather season, was calculated and included in these reports.

This improves on the 2017 to 2018 reports. This did not capture eligible recipients on Universal credit prior to cold weather season, or recipients on Universal Credit who were not previously entitled under legacy.

The approach detailed below, for the 2018 to 2019 reports, accounts for the cases previously excluded, to give a more accurate estimate. Individuals starting a Universal Credit claim in the Cold Weather period, who would have previously qualified through legacy benefits, continue to be included as in the 2017 to 2018 reports.

These estimates were created by using the latest available snapshot of Universal Credit claimants at the end of August 2018. To get an estimated snapshot as at end of October 2018, in line with legacy benefit claimants, an adjustment was applied. This adjustment was based on the estimated increase in claimants from August 2018 to October 2018 in the experimental statistics.

Each eligible Universal Credit household is counted as an eligible recipient, as a Cold Weather Payment is made once per household. The adjustment for August 2018 to October 2018 is based on the number of individual claimants. Therefore it is assumed the increase in individuals and households, on Universal Credit, is the same.

Note, of the information held on each household, around 5% is not based on the latest month’s information, but instead uses the latest available.

These estimates of Universal Credit claimants, eligible for Cold Weather Payments, were produced by weather station based on the claimant’s postcode area.

The figures exclude a small number of claimants who solely meet the Support for Mortgage Interest (SMI) Loan eligibility criteria for Cold Weather Payments. This is not expected to have a material impact on the overall accuracy of our estimates.

Estimation of payments and expenditure

The eligible recipient figures remain unchanged throughout the season, and can be used to estimate payment volumes and expenditure based on reported triggers in each weather station area. This was previously included in these reports, but following a consultation in 2018 it was agreed to remove the estimates of volumes and expenditure.

Estimates can be calculated based on the figures provided.

The number of payments made in Great Britain is provided (see Table 1).

The number of payments in a given weather station area can be estimated by multiplying the number of estimated eligible recipients in that area by the number of triggers recorded in that area (see Table 3).

As the award amount is fixed at £25, the amount of expenditure on Cold Weather Payments can be estimated as the number of estimated payments multiplied by £25.

Estimation of figures for England, Scotland and Wales

The estimates of the numbers of eligible Cold Weather Payments recipients in 2018 to 2019 are produced as totals for each weather station area. There are a number of weather station areas that cross the England and Scotland or England and Wales borders. We do not know the exact country of residence of Cold Weather Payment recipients in these weather station areas.

The number of recipients in each country has therefore been estimated using the postcode information for those on Cold Weather Payment-eligible benefits in October 2018 from the DWP National Benefits Database to determine the proportion of benefit claimants in each country in these weather station areas.

Triggers

The information about the number and location triggers given in the estimates is exact.

Comparison of estimates and actuals

Exact figures on the amount paid out in each financial year are available in the Social Fund White Paper Accounts and DWP budget information published after the end of the financial year.

The following table shows the estimated Cold Weather Payment expenditure reported during the season and the actual expenditure reported in the Social Fund White Paper Accounts between 2012 to 2013 and 2017 to 2018.

Note, estimated expenditure is taken from previous Cold Weather Payment Estimates official statistics, and actual expenditure taken from the Social Fund White Paper Accounts.

Table 1: Cold Weather Payment expenditure estimated and actual, 1 November 2012 to 31 March 2018

Year	Estimated expenditure (millions)	Actual expenditure (millions)	Difference (millions)
2012 to 2013	£146.1m	£141.7m	£4.4m
2013 to 2014	£0.03m	£8.4m	-£8.4m
2014 to 2015	£10.6m	£11.0m	-£0.4m
2015 to 2016	£3.9m	£3.9m	£0.0m
2016 to 2017	£3.3m	£3.1m	£0.2m
2017 to 2018	£118.7m	£114.3m	£4.4m

In table 1 the larger discrepancies between estimated and actual expenditure in 2012 to 2013 and 2013 to 2014 are due to differences in the timings used to record the payments.

The estimated figures are produced based on the date the payments are triggered whilst the exact expenditure is based on when the payment was made. These dates can differ by up to 14 days. If triggers are reported in late March, this means the payments may not be made until the following financial year.

In 2013 to 2014, only 1 trigger was recorded between 1 November 2013 and 31 March 2014, resulting in estimated expenditure of £0.03m.

The £8m expenditure recorded as the actual figure relates to triggers that were recorded in late March 2013 but not paid until April 2013.

Further information

Information about Cold Weather Payments.

Cold Weather Payment scheme

Read about Cold Weather Payments – what you’ll get, eligibility and how to find out if your area is due a payment

The Cold Weather Payment scheme runs from 1 November 2018 to 31 March 2019. Check if you can get a payment in your area.

Cold Weather Payment estimates

Read the Cold Weather Payment estimates for previous years.

These figures and further detail about the Cold Weather Payment scheme are also available in the Social Fund annual report 2017 to 2018.

The Social Fund accounts provide information on total actual expenditure on Cold Weather Payments each year.

A time series of past expenditure on Cold Weather Payments from 1987 to 2018 and forecasts up to 2023 to 2024 are available in the DWP benefit expenditure and caseload tables.

The Cold Weather Payment estimates published by the DWP were assessed by the UK Statistics Authority in Summer and Autumn 2015. Read a copy of the Assessment Report published by the UK Statistics Authority on 26 November 2015.

Winter Fuel Payments

Cold Weather Payments provide support to vulnerable individuals in periods of extreme cold weather. They are not the same as Winter Fuel Payments which provide a one-off lump sum paid each winter to help older people with the costs of heating their homes. Winter Fuel Payments are administered and reported separately of the Cold Weather Payment scheme.

Read information on Winter Fuel Payments – claim form, how much you get and eligibility.

Winter Fuel Payments statistics are published annually by DWP.

Contact information

Tell your pension centre or Jobcentre Plus office if you think you should have received a Cold Weather Payment but you have not.

If you’re getting Universal Credit, contact the helpline instead.

Universal Credit helpline
Telephone: 0800 328 9344
(Monday to Friday, 9am to 4pm)
Textphone: 0800 328 1344
(Monday to Friday, 8am to 6pm)

Find out about call charges

If you have any other queries regarding the Cold Weather Payment scheme or the Social Fund, contact the DWP Social Fund policy team.

If you have any comments, questions or suggestions regarding this document or the Cold Weather Payment estimates, contact tom.stewart@dwp.gsi.gov.uk at DWP.