EMRG medium-term projections for COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths: 12 October 2022

Q: England

Figure 2. Modelled projections of COVID-19 deaths per day (by date of death) in the UK nations based on data available on 6 October 2022 View key . The number of COVID-19 deaths (by date of death) within 28 days of being identified as a COVID-19 case. The past data for England is taken from the UKHSA line list of deaths.

Q: Wales

Figure 1b. Modelled projections of new hospital admissions per day in the UK nations based on data available on 6 October 2022 View key . Number of patients admitted with confirmed COVID-19 by admission date and inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 by test authorisation date. Provided by Public Health Wales.

Q: Scotland

Figure 1c. Modelled projections of new hospital admissions per day in the UK nations based on data available on 6 October 2022 View key . Number of patients who tested positive for COVID-19 in the 14 days prior to admission, on the day of admission, or during their stay in hospital. Readmissions within 14 days of a positive test are excluded. Provided by Public Health Scotland. This figure has minor adjustments for publication to prevent statistical disclosure.

Q: London

Figure 3a. Modelled projections of new hospital admissions per day in the NHS England regions based on data available on 6 October 2022 View key . Number of patients admitted with confirmed COVID-19 and the number of inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 in the past 24 hours. The past data is taken from the NHS England COVID-19 situation reports.

Q: East of England

Figure 3b. Modelled projections of new hospital admissions per day in the NHS England regions based on data available on 6 October 2022 View key . Number of patients admitted with confirmed COVID-19 and the number of inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 in the past 24 hours. The past data is taken from the NHS England COVID-19 situation reports.

Q: Midlands

Figure 3c. Modelled projections of new hospital admissions per day in the NHS England regions based on data available on 6 October 2022 View key . Number of patients admitted with confirmed COVID-19 and the number of inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 in the past 24 hours. The past data is taken from the NHS England COVID-19 situation reports.

Q: North East and Yorkshire

Figure 3d. Modelled projections of new hospital admissions per day in the NHS England regions based on data available on 6 October 2022 View key . Number of patients admitted with confirmed COVID-19 and the number of inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 in the past 24 hours. The past data is taken from the NHS England COVID-19 situation reports.

Q: North West

Figure 3e. Modelled projections of new hospital admissions per day in the NHS England regions based on data available on 6 October 2022 View key . Number of patients admitted with confirmed COVID-19 and the number of inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 in the past 24 hours. The past data is taken from the NHS England COVID-19 situation reports.

Q: South East

Figure 3f. Modelled projections of new hospital admissions per day in the NHS England regions based on data available on 6 October 2022 View key . Number of patients admitted with confirmed COVID-19 and the number of inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 in the past 24 hours. The past data is taken from the NHS England COVID-19 situation reports.

Question 1

Medium-term projections

Accepted Answer

These medium-term projections (MTPs) for COVID-19 hospitalisations ^± and deaths ^¥ are not forecasts or predictions. They represent a scenario in which the trajectory of the epidemic continues to follow the trends that were seen in data available to 6 October 2022.
Several modelling groups produce their own set of projections. These individual projections are then combined to form consensus MTPs. MTPs are provided for England and Scotland, for hospital admissions (Figure 1) and England for deaths (Figure 2), as well as English regional hospital admissions (Figure 3). Due to an insufficient number of models being available, it has not been possible to produce projections for Northern Ireland hospitalisations.
The number of deaths are currently low in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales. Projecting forwards is difficult when numbers fall to very low levels, therefore projections for deaths are not provided for these nations this week. Likewise, English regional deaths are not included.
MTPs are provided for 4 weeks. The projections, based on continuation of current trends, become increasingly uncertain over this time-period, as current data trends are unclear. The high levels of uncertainty are seen in wide ranges of estimates between the 5th to 95th centiles (such as in Figure 1a), but these statistical extremes do not reflect the expected course of the epidemic.
The delay between infection, developing symptoms, the need for hospital care, and death means the MTPs cannot fully reflect the impact of policy and behavioural changes made in the 2 to 3 weeks prior to 6 October 2022 (although an assumed effect of school holidays has been included), which further increases uncertainty at present.
Modelling groups have used their expert judgement, estimations from NHS England, evidence from UKHSA and other published studies when making assumptions about vaccinations.
Projections do not include the potential effects of any novel variants. The delay between infection, developing symptoms, the need for hospital care, and death means it is unlikely that a novel variant will significantly alter the trajectories of hospitalisations and deaths in the timescales covered by these projections.

± These are new hospitalisations per day which incorporates both the number of individuals admitted with COVID-19, as well as inpatients newly diagnosed with COVID-19. Data definitions differ slightly across all 4 nations.

¥ These are the number of new deaths per day (by date of death) that are within 28 days of being identified as a COVID-19 case. Data definitions differ slightly across all 4 nations.

Question 2

Acknowledgements

Accepted Answer

UKHSA thanks SPI-M-O and academic partners for providing model outputs for these projections. UKHSA also acknowledges the work developing combination estimates from Defence and Science Technology Laboratory and the support and collaboration of the SPI-M-O Secretariat and co-Chairs, as well as colleagues across the 4 nations.

Key

This key applies to all of the following fan charts.

All fan charts show the 90% credible interval (lighter shading) and interquartile range (darker shading) of the combined projections based on current trends. Note axes scales differ for figures.

Question 3

England

Accepted Answer

Figure 2. Modelled projections of COVID-19 deaths per day (by date of death) in the UK nations based on data available on 6 October 2022

View key.

The number of COVID-19 deaths (by date of death) within 28 days of being identified as a COVID-19 case. The past data for England is taken from the UKHSA line list of deaths.

Question 4

Wales

Accepted Answer

Figure 1b. Modelled projections of new hospital admissions per day in the UK nations based on data available on 6 October 2022

View key.

Number of patients admitted with confirmed COVID-19 by admission date and inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 by test authorisation date. Provided by Public Health Wales.

Question 5

Scotland

Accepted Answer

Figure 1c. Modelled projections of new hospital admissions per day in the UK nations based on data available on 6 October 2022

View key.

Number of patients who tested positive for COVID-19 in the 14 days prior to admission, on the day of admission, or during their stay in hospital. Readmissions within 14 days of a positive test are excluded. Provided by Public Health Scotland. This figure has minor adjustments for publication to prevent statistical disclosure.

Question 6

London

Accepted Answer