EMRG medium-term projections for COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths: 25 May 2022

Q: England

Figure 2a. Modelled projections of COVID-19 deaths per day (by date of death) in the UK nations based on data available on 23 May 2022 The number of COVID-19 deaths (by date of death) within 28 days of being identified as a COVID-19 case. The past data for England is taken from the UKHSA line list of deaths. This figure has minor adjustments for publication to prevent statistical disclosure.

Q: Wales

Figure 1b. Modelled projections of new hospital admissions per day in the UK nations based on data available on 23 May 2022 Number of patients admitted with confirmed COVID-19 by admission date and inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 by test authorisation date. Provided by Public Health Wales. This figure has minor adjustments for publication to prevent statistical disclosure.

Q: Scotland

Figure 1c. Modelled projections of new hospital admissions per day in the UK nations based on data available on 23 May 2022 Number of patients who tested positive for COVID-19 in the 14 days prior to admission, on the day of admission, or during their stay in hospital. Readmissions within 14 days of a positive test are excluded. Provided by Public Health Scotland. This figure has minor adjustments for publication to prevent statistical disclosure.

Q: Northern Ireland

Figure 1d. Modelled projections of new hospital admissions per day in the UK nations based on data available on 23 May 2022 Number of patients admitted with confirmed COVID-19 and inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19. Provided by Health and Social Care Northern Ireland. This figure has minor adjustments for publication to prevent statistical disclosure.

Q: London

Figure 3a. Modelled projections of new hospital admissions per day in the NHS England regions based on data available on 23 May 2022 Number of patients admitted with confirmed COVID-19 and the number of inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 in the past 24 hours. The past data is taken from the NHS England COVID-19 situation reports.

Q: East of England

Figure 3b. Modelled projections of new hospital admissions per day in the NHS England regions based on data available on 23 May 2022 Number of patients admitted with confirmed COVID-19 and the number of inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 in the past 24 hours. The past data is taken from the NHS England COVID-19 situation reports.

Q: Midlands

Figure 3c. Modelled projections of new hospital admissions per day in the NHS England regions based on data available on 23 May 2022 Number of patients admitted with confirmed COVID-19 and the number of inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 in the past 24 hours. The past data is taken from the NHS England COVID-19 situation reports.

Q: North East and Yorkshire

Figure 3d. Modelled projections of new hospital admissions per day in the NHS England regions based on data available on 23 May 2022 Number of patients admitted with confirmed COVID-19 and the number of inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 in the past 24 hours. The past data is taken from the NHS England COVID-19 situation reports.

Q: North West

Figure 3e. Modelled projections of new hospital admissions per day in the NHS England regions based on data available on 23 May 2022 Number of patients admitted with confirmed COVID-19 and the number of inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 in the past 24 hours. The past data is taken from the NHS England COVID-19 situation reports.

Question 1

Medium-term projections

Accepted Answer

These MTPs for COVID-19 hospitalisations ^± and deaths ^¥ are not forecasts or predictions. They represent a scenario in which the trajectory of the epidemic continues to follow the trends that were seen in data available to 23 May 2022.
Several modelling groups produce their own set of projections. These individual projections are then combined to form consensus MTPs. MTPs are provided for England, Wales and Scotland, for hospital admissions (Figure 1) and deaths (Figure 2), as well as English regional hospital admissions (Figure 3) and deaths.
The number of deaths has fallen to very low levels in Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and in the English regions. Projecting forwards is difficult when numbers fall to very low levels, therefore projections for deaths are not provided for these nations and regions this week. However, the consensus view is that the number of deaths in these nations and regions will remain low over the next 6 weeks.
The delay between infection, developing symptoms, the need for hospital care, and death means the MTPs cannot fully reflect the impact of policy and behavioural changes made in the 2 to 3 weeks prior to 23 May 2022. An assumed effect of school holidays has been included.
Modelling groups have used their expert judgement and evidence from UKHSA and other published studies when making assumptions about vaccine effectiveness.
Projections do not include the potential effects of any novel variants. The delay between infection, developing symptoms, the need for hospital care, and death means it is unlikely that a novel variant will significantly alter the trajectories of hospitalisations and deaths in the timescales covered by these projections.

± These are new hospitalisations per day which incorporates both the number of individuals admitted with COVID-19, as well as inpatients newly diagnosed with COVID-19. Data definitions differ slightly across all 4 nations.

¥ These are the number of new deaths per day (by date of death) that are within 28 days of being identified as a COVID-19 case. Data definitions differ slightly across all 4 nations.

Question 2

Acknowledgements

Accepted Answer

UKHSA thanks SPI-M-O and academic partners for providing model outputs for these projections. UKHSA also acknowledges the work developing combination estimates from [Defence and Science Technology Laboratory(https://arxiv.org/pdf/2103.01742.pdf) and the support and collaboration of the SPI-M-O Secretariat and co-Chairs, as well as colleagues across the 4 nations.

Key

All fan charts show the 90% credible interval (lighter shading) and interquartile range (darker shading) of the combined projections based on current trends. Note axes scales differ for each of the figures.

Question 3

England

Accepted Answer

Figure 2a. Modelled projections of COVID-19 deaths per day (by date of death) in the UK nations based on data available on 23 May 2022

The number of COVID-19 deaths (by date of death) within 28 days of being identified as a COVID-19 case. The past data for England is taken from the UKHSA line list of deaths. This figure has minor adjustments for publication to prevent statistical disclosure.

Question 4

Wales

Accepted Answer

Figure 1b. Modelled projections of new hospital admissions per day in the UK nations based on data available on 23 May 2022

Number of patients admitted with confirmed COVID-19 by admission date and inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 by test authorisation date. Provided by Public Health Wales. This figure has minor adjustments for publication to prevent statistical disclosure.

Question 5

Scotland

Accepted Answer

Figure 1c. Modelled projections of new hospital admissions per day in the UK nations based on data available on 23 May 2022

Number of patients who tested positive for COVID-19 in the 14 days prior to admission, on the day of admission, or during their stay in hospital. Readmissions within 14 days of a positive test are excluded. Provided by Public Health Scotland. This figure has minor adjustments for publication to prevent statistical disclosure.

Question 6

Northern Ireland

Accepted Answer

Figure 1d. Modelled projections of new hospital admissions per day in the UK nations based on data available on 23 May 2022

Number of patients admitted with confirmed COVID-19 and inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19. Provided by Health and Social Care Northern Ireland. This figure has minor adjustments for publication to prevent statistical disclosure.

Question 7

London

Accepted Answer