EMRG medium-term projections for COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths: 7 December 2022

Q: England

Figure 2a. Modelled projections of COVID-19 deaths per day (by date of death) in the UK nations based on data available on 1 December 2022 View key . The number of COVID-19 deaths (by date of death) within 28 days of being identified as a COVID-19 case. The past data for England is taken from the UKHSA line list of deaths.

Q: Wales

Figure 1b. Modelled projections of new hospital admissions per day in the UK nations based on data available on 1 December 2022 View key . Number of patients admitted with confirmed COVID-19 by admission date and inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 by test authorisation date. Provided by Public Health Wales.

Q: Scotland

Figure 1c. Modelled projections of new hospital admissions per day in the UK nations based on data available on 1 December 2022 View key . Number of patients who tested positive for COVID-19 in the 14 days prior to admission, on the day of admission, or during their stay in hospital. Readmissions within 14 days of a positive test are excluded. Provided by Public Health Scotland.

Q: London

Figure 3a. Modelled projections of new hospital admissions per day in the NHS England regions based on data available on 1 December 2022 View key . Number of patients admitted with confirmed COVID-19 and the number of inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 in the past 24 hours. The past data is taken from the NHS England COVID-19 situation reports.

Q: East of England

Figure 3b. Modelled projections of new hospital admissions per day in the NHS England regions based on data available on 1 December 2022 View key . Number of patients admitted with confirmed COVID-19 and the number of inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 in the past 24 hours. The past data is taken from the NHS England COVID-19 situation reports.

Q: Midlands

Figure 3c. Modelled projections of new hospital admissions per day in the NHS England regions based on data available on 1 December 2022 View key . Number of patients admitted with confirmed COVID-19 and the number of inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 in the past 24 hours. The past data is taken from the NHS England COVID-19 situation reports.

Q: North East and Yorkshire

Figure 3d. Modelled projections of new hospital admissions per day in the NHS England regions based on data available on 1 December 2022 View key . Number of patients admitted with confirmed COVID-19 and the number of inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 in the past 24 hours. The past data is taken from the NHS England COVID-19 situation reports.

Q: North West

Figure 3e. Modelled projections of new hospital admissions per day in the NHS England regions based on data available on 1 December 2022 View key . Number of patients admitted with confirmed COVID-19 and the number of inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 in the past 24 hours. The past data is taken from the NHS England COVID-19 situation reports.

Q: South East

Figure 3f. Modelled projections of new hospital admissions per day in the NHS England regions based on data available on 1 December 2022 View key . Number of patients admitted with confirmed COVID-19 and the number of inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 in the past 24 hours. The past data is taken from the NHS England COVID-19 situation reports.

Question 1

Medium-term projections

Accepted Answer

These medium-term projections (MTPs) for COVID-19 hospitalisations ^± and deaths ^¥ are not forecasts or predictions. They represent a scenario in which the trajectory of the epidemic continues to follow the trends that were seen in data available to 1 December 2022.
Several modelling groups produce their own set of projections. These individual projections are then combined to form consensus MTPs. MTPs are provided for England, Wales and Scotland for hospital admissions (Figure 1) and England for deaths (Figure 2), as well as English regional hospital admissions (Figure 3). Due to an insufficient number of models being available, it has not been possible to produce projections for Northern Ireland hospitalisations.
The delay between infection, developing symptoms, the need for hospital care, and death means the MTPs cannot fully reflect the impact of policy and behavioural changes made in the 2 to 3 weeks prior to 1 December 2022. An assumed effect of school holidays has been included.
Modelling groups have used their expert judgement and evidence from UKHSA and other published studies when making assumptions about vaccine effectiveness.
Projections do not include the potential effects of any novel variants. The delay between infection, developing symptoms, the need for hospital care, and death means it is unlikely that a novel variant will significantly alter the trajectories of hospitalisations and deaths in the timescales covered by these projections.
Several English regions have seen an increase in admissions and occupancy in the last few days of available data. Prior to this, data had remained largely flat. Under these conditions, those models which fit to this recent increase project higher estimated growth rates. These are reflected in the upper-bound of the 90% confidence intervals which are considered an unlikely scenario. Combined with assumptions on waning immunity in these models, admissions are projected to start decreasing after about 3 weeks.
Following a detailed review, the next publication of the ‘EMRG medium-term projections (MTP) for COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths’ on 6 January 2023 will be the last. COVID-19 incidence data will continue to be accessible from the ONS coronavirus (COVID-19) infection survey. All UKHSA data publications will be kept under constant review. For feedback email emrg@ukhsa.gov.uk

± These are new hospitalisations per day which incorporates both the number of individuals admitted with COVID-19, as well as inpatients newly diagnosed with COVID-19. Data definitions differ slightly across all 4 nations.

¥ These are the number of new deaths per day (by date of death) that are within 28 days of being identified as a COVID-19 case. Data definitions differ slightly across all 4 nations.

Question 2

Acknowledgements

Accepted Answer

UKHSA thanks SPI-M-O and academic partners for providing model outputs for these projections. UKHSA also acknowledges the work developing combination estimates from Defence and Science Technology Laboratory and the support and collaboration of the SPI-M-O Secretariat and co-Chairs, as well as colleagues across the 4 nations.

Key

This key applies to all of the following fan charts.

All fan charts show the 90% credible interval (lighter shading) and interquartile range (darker shading) of the combined projections based on current trends. Note axes scales differ for figures.

Question 3

England

Accepted Answer

Figure 2a. Modelled projections of COVID-19 deaths per day (by date of death) in the UK nations based on data available on 1 December 2022

View key.

The number of COVID-19 deaths (by date of death) within 28 days of being identified as a COVID-19 case. The past data for England is taken from the UKHSA line list of deaths.

Question 4

Wales

Accepted Answer

Figure 1b. Modelled projections of new hospital admissions per day in the UK nations based on data available on 1 December 2022

View key.

Number of patients admitted with confirmed COVID-19 by admission date and inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 by test authorisation date. Provided by Public Health Wales.

Question 5

Scotland

Accepted Answer

Figure 1c. Modelled projections of new hospital admissions per day in the UK nations based on data available on 1 December 2022

View key.

Number of patients who tested positive for COVID-19 in the 14 days prior to admission, on the day of admission, or during their stay in hospital. Readmissions within 14 days of a positive test are excluded. Provided by Public Health Scotland.

Question 6

London

Accepted Answer