Policy paper

Annex D: estimating the cost of terrorist attacks

Updated 22 September 2023

This was published under the 2022 to 2024 Sunak Conservative government

Executive summary

The impact of a terrorist attack is felt by individuals, their families, and their communities, and can cause profound physical and emotional harm to victims and survivors. The Home Office acknowledges that the approach of monetising the impact of terrorist attacks may seem insensitive, and while this research and analysis cannot capture the entirety of the harm caused, especially to victims and survivors, the approach allows us to better articulate the impacts on society in a clear and quantifiable manner.

This annex presents the estimated economic costs of the five terrorist attacks that took place in the UK in 2017: Westminster (22nd March), Manchester Arena (22nd May), London Bridge (3rd June), Finsbury Park (19th June) and Parsons Green (15th September).

The total direct cost of these five 2017 terrorist attacks in the UK is estimated to be £171.8 million.

Figure 1: estimated direct cost by attack

Attack	Cost
Westminster Bridge, 22 March 2017	£18.8 million
Manchester Arena, 22 May 2017	£116.0 million
London Bridge, 3 June 2017	£28.3 million
Finsbury Park, 19 June 2017	£4.8 million
Parsons Green, 15 September 2017	£3.9 million

There are some important considerations to note about these costs:

• These estimates are specific to the attacks mentioned above, and do not represent an average cost of terrorism. These cost estimates should not be taken as indicative of the cost of any future attacks using these methodologies.
• Direct cost estimates, presented above, are separate to the indirect cost estimates taken from ‘The fight against terrorism: Cost of Non-Europe Report’ and outlined in the Indirect Cost of Terrorism section below.^{[footnote 1] [footnote 2]} These cost estimates should not be added together. This is due to the inherently different methodological approaches in estimating these and the greater uncertainty associated with the indirect costs estimate.
• These costs represent both financial and non-financial costs (impacts monetised using notional non-market values).
• All the costs estimated are presented in 2021 calendar year prices, to ensure consistency across different estimates.
• Bespoke estimates are provided for some cost categories, while others are estimated using available proxies due to a lack of available data.

Introduction

The Home Office, in collaboration with RAND Europe, has estimated the economic and social cost to the UK of terrorist attacks that took place in the UK in 2017. These estimates demonstrate the economic impact of terrorism on UK society and improve our understanding of the scale and nature of harm.

This annex sets out the approach taken to estimate the direct costs of the five terrorist attacks that took place in the UK in 2017. This is based on a methodology jointly developed between RAND Europe and the Home Office in 2019. The Home Office has updated these estimates as more recent information on fatality and injury numbers has become available in subsequent years.

The analysis presents estimates of the direct costs of terrorist attacks. These are distinct to any indirect cost estimates referenced in ‘The fight against terrorism: Cost of Non-Europe Report’. Each of these are defined below:

1. Direct costs – first-order costs incurred by society that are directly attributed to a given attack. The direct costs considered fall under the following categories: casualties, emergency services, property damage, civil justice and courts, and local council.
2. Indirect costs – costs attributable to the attack, but are second order in nature, in that they depend on how individuals and businesses respond to the attack. An example is a fall in economic output because of changes in behaviour or economic and societal participation, estimated as a slowdown in economic growth associated with a terrorist attack.

The direct costs can be categorised into the following cost categories in Table 1 below.

Table 1: cost categories (2021 prices)

Cost category	Cost type	Westminster Bridge	Manchester Arena	London Bridge	Finsbury Park	Parsons Green
1. Counter Terrorism Policing	Bespoke	£3.61m	£9.17m	£4.74m	£0.36m	£1.09m
2. Operation Temperer	Bespoke	£0.00m	£1.71m	£0.00m	£0.00m	£0.72m
3. Inquest	Bespoke	£1.16m	£3.54m	£1.67m	£0.00m	£0.00m
4. Inquiry	Bespoke	£0.00m	£35.63m	£0.00m	£0.00m	£0.00m
5. Prison	Bespoke	£0.0m	£1.16m	£0.0m	£1.04m	£0.93m
6. Cost as a consequence to victims	Proxy	£13.92m	£61.50m	£21.83m	£2.81m	£0.65m
7. Property damage	Proxy	£0.00m	£2.75m	£0.00m	£0.00m	£0.00m
8. Public property and vehicles	Proxy	£0.04m	£0.00m	£0.05m	£0.05m	£0.00m
9. Ambulance	Proxy	£0.01m	£0.06m	£0.01m	£0.00m	£0.01m
10. Fire response	Proxy	£0.01m	£0.01m	£0.02m	£0.01m	£0.02m
11. Civil justice and courts	Proxy	£0.00m	£0.50m	£0.00m	£0.50m	£0.50m
12. Emotional harm to bystanders	Not costed	-	-	-	-	-
13. Police response	Not costed	-	-	-	-	-
Total cost		£18.8m	£116.0m	£28.3m	£4.8m	£3.9m

Methodology

The direct costs resulting from each terrorist attack have been estimated separately using the same methodology. These are presented below and are split into: (a) bespoke cost categories, where there is reasonable data and evidence on which to base an estimate of that category is known; (b) proxy cost categories, where a proxy has been used to estimate the cost of that category because there is only limited data on which to base an estimate; and (c) non-costed cost categories, where there is insufficient data on which to base an estimate.

All costs are presented in 2021 calendar year prices. Physical and emotional harm costs have been adjusted using ONS nominal GDP per capita figures.^{[footnote 3]} All other costs have been adjusted using the most recent GDP Deflator at the time of publication (March 2023).^{[footnote 4]}

Bespoke cost categories

Bespoke cost estimates refer to cost categories where costs have been estimated with a high degree of confidence, either because a specific figure has been provided for the cost, or because a robust methodology has been used to estimate the cost specific to that attack.

1. Counter Terrorism Policing Cost

There is a cost to Counter Terrorism Policing (CTP) in responding to an attack. A bespoke estimate for each attack has been provided by CTP. These values represent the additional costs incurred by Counter Terrorism Policing as a result of the attacks. This does not include the opportunity cost of officers and staff undertaking their core role in Counter Terrorism

The cost to Counter Terrorism Policing is estimated to be £3.6 million for Westminster Bridge, £9.2 million for Manchester Arena, £4.7 million for London Bridge, £0.4 million for Finsbury Park, and £1.1 million for Parsons Green.

2. Operation Temperer cost

For the Manchester Arena and Parsons Green attack, there is a cost of activating Operation Temperer. This is the deployment of troops to support and free up police officers in key locations following a rise in the threat level from ‘severe’ to ‘critical’.

A bespoke estimate for the Manchester Arena attack has been provided by the Ministry of Defence based on the number of troops deployed, and the duration for which Operation Temperer was enacted (7 days). These costs include personnel costs, accommodation and catering, transport, and miscellaneous costs. The cost estimate for the Parsons Green attack is a partial bespoke estimate and partial proxy estimate. The deployment length is known (3 days) but the number of troops deployed is not known, and so it has been assumed that the number of troops deployed is the same as for the Manchester Arena attack.

The cost of Operation Temperer is estimated to be £1.7 million for Manchester Arena and £0.7 million for Parsons Green.

3. Inquest costs

There is a cost associated with any subsequent inquest into the attack. The Westminster Bridge, Manchester Arena, and London Bridge attacks all had inquests, and bespoke costs for each of these have been provided by the Ministry of Justice based on funding requests from local councils following each attack.^{[footnote 5]}

The inquest costs are estimated to be £1.2 million for Westminster Bridge, £3.5 million for Manchester Arena, and £1.7 million for London Bridge.

4. Inquiry costs

There is a cost associated with the inquiry held after the Manchester Arena attack. Bespoke costs for this inquiry have been taken from the publicly available Manchester Arena Inquiry Finance Report.^{[footnote 6]}

The inquiry cost is estimated to be £35.6 million for Manchester Arena.

5. Prison costs

There is a cost to the Ministry of Justice through the HM Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS) of those sent to prison as a result of the Manchester Arena, Finsbury Park and Parsons Green attacks. A bespoke estimate for this cost has been estimated using standard Ministry of Justice unit costs for the cost of a prisoner per year.^{[footnote 7]}

This cost has been estimated by taking the number of prisoners and their sentence length associated with each attack from official government reports.^{[footnote 8]} These are then multiplied by a Ministry of Justice estimate for the cost of an individual prisoner per year and discounted using HMT Green Book discount rate of 3.5%.^{[footnote 9]} The cost of a male dispersal prison is used to reflect the fact that terrorist attackers are overwhelmingly male and are usually placed in high security prisons.

This cost does not include any periods spent on licence, because data was not available in a format that could be included. These costs have not been quantified.

The prison costs are estimated to be £1.2 million for Manchester Arena, £1.0 million for Finsbury Park, and £0.9 million for Parsons Green.

Proxy cost categories

Proxy cost categories refer to cost categories where it has not been possible to provide a bespoke cost estimate because there is only limited data on which to base an estimate. Instead, a proxy has been used to estimate the cost.

6. Cost as a consequence to victims

The cost as a consequence to victims includes the physical and emotional harm to victims, lost output, health service costs and victim service costs. To estimate these costs, unit costs from the Home Office Economic and Social Cost of Crime (ESCC) have been used as a proxy for the cost to victims resulting from terrorist attacks.^{[footnote 10]}

The ESCC unit costs are the average cost of each victim-based crime type in a given year and although these costs can act as a proxy for the potential victim impacts experienced as a consequence of a terror attack, they do not represent the cost of specific past events. The unit costs do not fully reflect the high-harm nature of terror attacks nor represent the exact costs associated with previous terror attacked. These costs therefore should be viewed as an indication of the potential scale of victim impacts experienced from terror attacks.

To estimate these costs, the number of deaths and injuries resulting from each attack have been taken from official government reports.^{[footnote 11]} The numbers of deaths have then been multiplied by the ESCC costs as a consequence of a crime for a homicide, and the number of injuries has been multiplied by the ESCC costs as a consequence for violence with injury. These are generic economic and social cost values used in the Home Office to estimate the cost to victims of crime. If we apply these estimates as a proxy for the cost to victims of terrorism, then we can come up with an estimate of the impacts of each of the 2017 terrorist attacks in the UK.

Ambulance costs have been estimated separately and so have been removed from the health services cost which forms part of the costs as a consequence for violence with injury. As such, a health services cost of £906 (2015/16 prices) has been used instead.

It should be noted that the physical and emotional harm and lost output estimates are non-financial costs, that is, they use ‘notional’ (non-market) values which represent estimated harm in monetary terms. It is also acknowledged that the violence with injury unit cost covers a broad range of injuries, from minor bruising to stab wounds and broken bones, weighted according to frequency of these injuries in each crime in the ESCC. This is used as a proxy for injuries in terrorist attacks as some victims may have experienced serious injuries, while others may experience only slight injuries. It is recognised that for those with serious injuries, this unit cost is likely an underestimate of the true cost of these injuries.

The cost as a consequence to victims is estimated to be £13.9 million for Westminster Bridge, £61.5 million for Manchester Arena, £21.8 million for London Bridge, £2.8 million for Finsbury Park, and £0.6 million for Parsons Green.

7. Property damage

There is a cost of property damage resulting from the Manchester Arena attack. Due to a lack of available data as to the cost of this damage to property, insurance claims to Pool Reinsurance Company LTD and their members have been used as a proxy. This figure has been provided directly by Pool Reinsurance Company LTD.

The cost of property damage is estimated to be £2.8 million for Manchester Arena.

8. Public property and vehicle cost

There is a cost of damage to public property, and the vehicles used, in the London Bridge and Finsbury Park attacks. Due to a lack of data on the cost of the damage caused by these vehicles, the damage to public property is estimated by using the Department for Transport TAG Databook value for ‘Fatal’ Property Damage as a result of road accident as a proxy.^{[footnote 12]} The cost of the damage to the vehicle is estimated as the value of the vehicle when new, based on the estimated RRP of each vehicle when new.^{[footnote 13]}

This does not include the cost of repair to the District Line train which was damaged in the Parsons Green attack due to a lack of data on the cost of this. As such, the property damage estimate provided for Parsons Green is likely to be an underestimate of the true cost.

The cost to public property and vehicles is estimated to be approximately £35,300 for Westminster Bridge, £50,800 for London Bridge, and £50,700 for Finsbury Park.

9. Ambulance service cost

There is a cost to ambulance services of responding to an attack. To estimate these, the unit cost for the cost per ambulance for violence with injury from the ESCC have been used as a proxy for the cost of an ambulance responding to a terrorist attack.

The cost per ambulance is estimated to be £231 (2015/16 prices) and has been taken from the health services cost as part of the cost as a consequence to victims in the ESCC. It has been assumed that one ambulance was required for each person hospitalised. The number of people who were injured and required hospitalisation has then been multiplied by the cost per ambulance to estimate the total ambulance cost of each attack.

This is likely to be an underestimate of the true cost of a terrorist attack as there are likely significantly fewer ambulances that respond to a homicide or injury relative to a terrorist attack.

The ambulance service cost is estimated to be £13,000 for Westminster Bridge, £62,200 for Manchester Arena, £11,700 for London Bridge, £3,100 for Finsbury Park, and £13,300 for Parsons Green.

10. Civil justice and court costs

There are also civil justice and court costs to the government. To estimate these, Civil Justice System (CJS) unit costs for a homicide from the ESCC have been used as a proxy for the CJS costs of a terrorist attack.

The cost used is the sum of the cost of jury service, non-legal aid defence, prosecution, Magistrates Court, Crown Court, legal aid, and National Offender Management Service (NOMS) headquarters. Prison service costs have been excluded as these are estimated separately, and Youth Justice Board costs have been excluded as this did not apply to the offenders. This cost has then been multiplied by the number of prisoners for each attack.

It is recognised that the civil justice and court cost estimate is based on ESCC CJS costs for a homicide which may not reflect the CJS cost for a terrorist attack. This represents the best available proxy at the current time.

The civil justice and court costs are estimated to be £0.5 million for Manchester Arena, £0.5 million for Finsbury Park, and £0.5 million for Parsons Green.

11. Fire response cost

There is a cost of the fire service responding to the attacks where a number of fire crew and equipment were present. A bespoke estimate for this cost has been estimated for each of the attacks using publicly available data on the fire response to each attack and combining this with unit costs from the Economic and Social Cost of Fire (ESCF).^{[footnote 14]}

For the Westminster Bridge, London Bridge, Finsbury Park and Parsons Green attacks, the number of known appliances mobilised are taken from London Fire Brigade incident reports.^{[footnote 15]} For Manchester Arena, the number of appliances used is based on the findings of the Kerslake Report.^{[footnote 16]}

The number of appliances is then multiplied by the duration of the response. In the absence of data for each attack, it has been assumed that the response lasted for 10 hours for each attack. This assumption is based on the London Fire Brigade report on the duration of the Westminster response that “firefighters were at the scene throughout the afternoon and into the night”. It has been assumed that the response started at approximately 14:00 and lasted until 00:00, meaning that the duration of the response was approximately10 hours.^{[footnote 17]} In the absence of more specific data for each attack, it has been assumed that the duration of fire response was 10 hours for each attack. It is recognised that the fire response to the Finsbury Park attack was likely significantly smaller than for the other attacks. As such, it is likely that the estimated fire response cost will be an overestimate.

This is then multiplied by Home Office estimates of the unit cost per hour, per type of appliance (including labour costs) in the Economic and Social Cost of Fire (ESCF) report.^{[footnote 18]} The unit cost for the Manchester Arena attack uses national pay scales, whilst the unit costs used for the other attacks use London-based costs. Finally, costs are uprated to account for non-labour costs and control staff who facilitate the fire response using a multiplier of 2.12 from the ESCF. These costs have then been adjusted to 2021 prices using annual pay settlement data between 2019 to 2020 (2%) and 2020 to 2021 (1.50%).^{[footnote 19]}

The cost of fire response is estimated to be £11,400 for Westminster Bridge, £14,000 for Manchester Arena, £15,800 for London Bridge, £8,300 for Finsbury Park, and £18,600 for Parsons Green.

Non-costed cost categories

Non-costed cost categories refer to cost categories for which it has not been possible to provide an estimate for due to a lack of available data.

12. Emotional harm to bystanders

There is a cost to bystanders who witnessed the attack and may have experience PTSD as a result of this. This cost has not been quantified due to a lack of robust data on the number of bystanders, and the extent to which they may have been affected.

13. Police response cost

There is a cost of the police responding to each of these attacks. This cost has not been quantified due to a lack of robust data on the number of police officers who responded to each attack. To provide a sense of scale, Manchester Council received over £9m from central government for policing costs following the Manchester Arena attack.^{[footnote 20]} This attack resulted in the highest number of deaths and injuries of the five attacks in 2017 with the largest police response.

Key caveats

• The casualty costs are calculated from a victim-based perspective, and do not include wider impacts on indirect victims (for example, the emotional harms experienced by friends and family of the victim). The totality of preventative activity taken by the government against terrorism has also not been considered. The cost captured in this analysis is therefore partial and will be an underestimate of the true impact of terrorist attacks on society.
• It has not been possible to estimate every possible economic cost for each attack. Specific costs not included are listed above, and this also does not include compensation costs to which victims are entitled through the Criminal Injuries Compensation Authority. Importantly, the cost to Counter Terrorism Policing has not been monetised which could represent significant costs.
• The ESCC unit costs used as proxies for the cost as a consequence to victims are based on UK data and foreign nationals and UK citizens are treated equally in this analysis.

Indirect costs of terrorism

There are also wider indirect impacts of terrorism. RAND Europe have developed a methodology which represents one way of estimating these indirect costs by taking a top-down approach to the relationship between terrorism and economic growth to estimate potential indirect impacts on GDP. For full details of the approach and findings, please see ‘The fight against terrorism: Cost of Non-Europe Report’.^{[footnote 21]}

RAND found that a 1-unit increase in the weighted terrorism index is associated with a statistically significant 0.04 percentage point reduction in economic growth in the year of the attack. By applying this to the level of terrorism in 2017, RAND find that the wider potential indirect impacts on GDP of the five terrorist attacks in 2017 “…is estimated to be 0.15 percentage points of economic growth. This corresponds to a loss in economic output of about €3.5bn”. This is equivalent to £3.4 billion in 2021 prices.^{[footnote 22]} The RAND findings suggest that the effect of terrorism on economic output is relatively short term and only applies in the year of the incident. The loss is mainly due to negative impacts on investment, though consumption stays relatively stable or may even increase.

Key caveats

These estimates are subject to a high degree of uncertainty and provide a broad sense of scale rather than a precise and accurate estimate. There are a number of caveats as to how these figures should be interpreted and used:

• The direct and indirect costs should not be added together, particularly due to the risks of double counting. For example, the lost output of victims has been included as a direct cost but will also be captured in the indirect cost, as this is based on total loss in UK GDP. There are also inherent differences in the methodologies used to calculate them as well as uncertainty which mean they are not suitable for combining.
• The RAND indirect cost parameter is based on analysis of terrorism events recorded in the Global Terrorism Database for 28 EU member states plus Norway, Switzerland and Iceland covering the time period 1990 – 2014. It is possible that this may not represent the situation in the UK in 2017 and more recent years.
• This represents a partial equilibrium approach, and the outputs should not be used in economic appraisal, including in cost benefit analysis. The outputs largely reflect a temporary demand side shock that depresses investment in the short term. There are a number of things that can adjust to mitigate the demand shock, including, and not just limited to monetary and fiscal policy. Investment could also just be displaced outside of the window captured in the modelling. HM Treasury Green Book guidance is that any macroeconomic effects not resulting from productivity or labour supply effects only contribute to temporary deviations from trend growth and should not be used in appraisal.^{[footnote 23]}

Table 2: data table

Bespoke cost categories (2021 prices)

Cost area	Calculation	Source
1. Counter Terrorism Policing cost	CTP figures provided	Bespoke costs provided by CTP. (Westminster Bridge: £3.6m; Manchester Arena: £9.2m; London Bridge: £4.8m; Finsbury Park: £0.4m; Parsons Green: £1.1m)
2. Operation Temperer cost	MoD figures provided	Bespoke costs provided by MoD. (Manchester Arena : £1.7m; Parsons Green: £0.7m)
3. Inquest costs	MoJ figures provided	Figures provided by Ministry of Justice and adjusted to 2021 prices (Manchester Arena: £3.5 million; Westminster Bridge: £1.2 million; London Bridge: £1.7m)
4. Inquiry costs	Manchester Arena Inquiry	Manchester Arena Inquiry cost: Key Documents – Manchester Arena Inquiry
5. Prison costs	Prison costs = number of prisoners * sentence length * cost per prisoner per year	Cost per prisoner per year for male dispersal: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/prison-performance-statistics-2017-to-2018 Number of prisoners and duration of sentence: For Manchester Arena: Manchester Arena Inquiry Volume 3: Radicalisation and Preventability (publishing.service.gov.uk). For Finsbury Park and Parsons Green: The 2017 Attacks: What needs to change? (independent.gov.uk)

Proxy cost categories (2021 prices)

Cost area	Calculation	Source
6. Costs as a consequence to victims	Injury cost = (number of fatal injuries * cost as a consequence of homicide) + (number of non-fatal injuries * cost as a consequence of violence with injury)	Injuries: Attacks in London and Manchester between March and June 2017 Attacks in London and Manchester between March and June 2017 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk). For Parsons Green: injuries – The 2017 terror attacks review: 2018 report - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk). Unit costs: Home Office (2018), ‘The Economic and Social Costs of Crime, Third Edition’ The economic and social costs of crime second edition - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
7. Property damage	Pool Reinsurance figures provided	Pool Reinsurance figures provided (Manchester Arena: £2.5 million)
8. Public property and vehicle costs	Public property and vehicle cost = ‘Fatal’ damage as a result of a road accident + vehicle cost	‘Fatal’ damage as a result of a road accident: DfT TAG Databook TAG data book - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) Vehicle cost: WB: Hyundai Tucson Estate 1.7 CRDi Blue Drive SE Nav 2WD 5d specs & dimensions - Parkers; LB: Renault Master LWB 2.3 dCi (170ps) LM35 Business M/R Window Van FWD Quickshift6 Valuation (from 2010) - Parkers; FP: Citroën Relay Conversions 2.2 HDi (108ps) 35 L2 Luton Valuation (from 2011) - Parkers.
9. Ambulance	Ambulance costs = number hospitalised * cost per ambulance	Cost per ambulance: Home Office (2018), ‘The Economic and Social Costs of Crime, Third Edition’ The economic and social costs of crime second edition - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) Number hospitalised: Injury source in ‘Costs as a Consequence to Victim’’ above.
10. Civil justice and courts	CJS costs = number of prisoners * ESCC CJS cost	CJS costs: Home Office (2018), ‘The Economic and Social Costs of Crime, Third Edition’ The economic and social costs of crime second edition - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
11. Fire response cost	Number of appliances utilised * cost per appliance * length of response	Number of appliances utilised (FE = Fire Engine, RU = Rescue Unit, CU = Command Unit): - Westminster Bridge: 3 FE, 2 RU, 0 CU. Westminster terror attack - London Fire Brigade (london-fire.gov.uk). - Manchester Arena: 6 FE, 0 RU, 1 CU. The Kerslake Report: An independent review into the preparedness for, and emergency response to, the Manchester Arena attack on 22nd May 2017 - Fire Brigades Union (fbu.org.uk). - London Bridge: 6 FE, 0 RU, 1 CU. Statement on London Bridge and Borough Market attacks - London Fire Brigade (london-fire.gov.uk). - Finsbury Park: 2 FE, 1 RU, 1 CU. Finsbury Park – report of vehicle in collision with pedestrians - London Fire Brigade (london-fire.gov.uk). - Parsons Green: 6 FE, 2 RU, 0 CU. Incident at Parsons Green tube station - London Fire Brigade (london-fire.gov.uk). Cost per appliance: Home Office estimates in the Economic and Social Cost of Fire. ‘Pumping traditional’ used for fire engines, ‘Rescue traditional’ used for rescue units; and ‘Command’ use for Command units. Length of response. Assumed to be 10 hours. “Firefighters were at the scene throughout the afternoon and into the night.” Westminster terror attack - London Fire Brigade (london-fire.gov.uk Adjustment to 2021 prices: Pay Settlement - Fire Brigades Union (fbu.org.uk)

Other data

Cost area	Calculation	Source
Non-cost inputs	GDP deflator GDP per capita Discount rate	GDP Deflator: National Statistic GDP deflators at market prices, and money GDP March 2023 (Quarterly National Accounts) - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) GDP per Capita: Office for National Statistics (2023) Gross domestic product (Average) per head,at current market prices: SA - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk) Discount rate: HMT Green Book (2022) The Green Book: appraisal and evaluation in central government - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

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1. Indirect costs are second order by nature and difficult to estimate. An estimate is provided by European Parliamentary Research Service and RAND (2018). The fight against terrorism: Cost of Non-Europe Report. Annex B: Page 120 – 131. EAV assessment (europa.eu) ↩

2. European Parliamentary Research Service and RAND (2018). The fight against terrorism: Cost of Non-Europe Report. Annex B, page 120 – 131. EAV assessment (europa.eu) ↩

3. Office for National Statistics (2023). Available at: Gross domestic product (Average) per head,at current market prices: SA - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk) (Accessed 24 May 2023) ↩

4. HM Treasury (2023) GDP deflators at market prices, and money GDP March 2023 (Quarterly National Accounts), GOV.UK. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/gdp-deflators-at-market-prices-and-money-gdp-march-2023-quarterly-national-accounts (Accessed: 13 May 2023). ↩

5. Inquest cost figures provided by Ministry of Justice and adjusted to 2021 prices (Manchester Arena: £3.5 million; Westminster Bridge: £1.2 million; London Bridge: £1.7m). The inquest into the death of the Manchester Arena attacker has not yet taken place and so has not been included. ↩

6. Manchester Arena Inquiry Finance Report, Available at: https://manchesterarenainquiry.org.uk/key-document-type/finance-report/ (Accessed: 13 May 2023). ↩

7. Cost per prisoner per year for male dispersal: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/prison-performance-statistics-2017-to-2018 ↩

8. For Manchester Arena: Manchester Arena Inquiry Volume 3: Radicalisation and Preventability (publishing.service.gov.uk). For Finsbury Park and Parsons Green: The 2017 Attacks: What needs to change? (independent.gov.uk) ↩

9. HM Treasury (2022). The Green Book, GOV.UK. Available at: The Green Book: appraisal and evaluation in central government - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) (Accessed 24 May 2023) ↩

10. Heeks, M. et al. (2018) The economic and social costs of Crime Second Edition, GOV.UK. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-economic-and-social-costs-of-crime (Accessed: 13 May 2023). ↩

11. Attacks in London and Manchester between March and June 2017 – Attacks in London and Manchester between March and June 2017 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk). For Parsons Green: injuries – The 2017 terror attacks review: 2018 report - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk). The casualty cost for the attacker has not been included. ↩

12. Department for Transport TAG Databook – ‘Fatal’ damage as a result of a road accident: TAG data book - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) ↩

13. For Westminster Bridge: Hyundai Tucson Estate 1.7 CRDi Blue Drive SE Nav 2WD 5d specs & dimensions - Parkers. For London Bridge: Renault Master LWB 2.3 dCi (170ps) LM35 Business M/R Window Van FWD Quickshift6 Valuation (from 2010) - Parkers. For Finsbury Park: Citroën Relay Conversions 2.2 HDi (108ps) 35 L2 Luton Valuation (from 2011) - Parkers. ↩

14. Economic and Social Cost of Fire (2023) ↩

15. London Fire Brigade Incident Report: for Westminster Bridge (Westminster terror attack - London Fire Brigade (london-fire.gov.uk); for London Bridge (Statement on London Bridge and Borough Market attacks - London Fire Brigade (london-fire.gov.uk)); for Finsbury Park (Finsbury Park – report of vehicle in collision with pedestrians - London Fire Brigade (london-fire.gov.uk)); for Parsons Green (Incident at Parsons Green tube station - London Fire Brigade (london-fire.gov.uk) ↩

16. Kerslake Report (2018). Available at: The Kerslake Report: An independent review into the preparedness for, and emergency response to, the Manchester Arena attack on 22nd May 2017 - Fire Brigades Union (fbu.org.uk) (Accessed: 2nd June) ↩

17. London Fire Brigade Incident Report: for Westminster Bridge (Westminster terror attack - London Fire Brigade (london-fire.gov.uk)) ↩

18. Economic and Social Cost of Fire (2023) ↩

19. Pay Settlement - Fire Brigades Union (fbu.org.uk) ↩

20. Prime Minister’s Office Press Release (2018), GOV.UK. Available at: Government sets out £24 million for Greater Manchester following 2017 terror attack - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) (Accessed 24 May 2023) ↩

21. European Parliamentary Research Service and RAND (2018). The fight against terrorism: Cost of Non-Europe Report. Annex B: Page 120 – 131. EAV assessment (europa.eu) ↩

22. The Home Office has converted the RAND figure to Pounds Sterling using the ONS average Euro/Sterling exchange rate for when this report was published in 2018: Office for National Statistics (2023). Average Sterling exchange rate: Euro XUMAERS Average Sterling exchange rate: Euro XUMAERS - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk). This has then been adjusted from 2017 prices to 2021 prices using the April 2023 GDP deflator https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/gdp-deflators-at-market-prices-and-money-gdp-march-2023-quarterly-national-accounts. ↩

23. HM Treasury Green Book (2022): The Green Book: appraisal and evaluation in central government - GOV.UK ↩