Guidance

DfT register of business critical models – April 2020

Updated 12 January 2022

The Macpherson Review of the quality assurance of government models classed a model as business-critical where:

• the modelling drives essential financial and funding decisions
• the model is essential to the achievement of business plan actions and priorities
• errors could engender serious financial, legal, reputational damages or penalties

The table provides a list of the Business Critical Models held and used within DfT and its Arm’s Length Bodies in April 2020.

Model number	Model name	Brief description
1	A303 Stonehenge SWRTM DCO Traffic Model	The model is a traffic model created to generate the forecasts of traffic that will use the A303 Amesbury to Berwick Down scheme upon opening and during the design life of the scheme. It is supporting the scheme through Statutory Consultation, the Development Consent Order application and the production of the Full Business Case.
2	Active Mode Appraisal Toolkit (AMAT)	The tool allows users to estimate the cost benefit ratio (BCR) of cycling or walking investment proposals, which indicates value for money and can help prioritise investment.
3	Air Travel Trust (ATT) Fund – Cash Flow Model	This model tracks and forecasts the balance of the Air Travel Trust Fund
4	ALCRM	All Level Crossing Risk Model (ALCRM) is a risk score calculator used as a basis for forming comparisons for Level Crossing on the infrastructure.
5	Annual report and accounts	Model is used to produce DVSA financial statements from the finance system
6	Atlas Data Platform	Data platform used to process and structure project controls data to enable automated performance reporting
7	Availability Workbench	Software tool used to develop Reliability Block Diagrams and Fault Trees for complex railway systems.
8	Aviation model	The model forecasts aviation passenger demand, air transport movements and carbon emissions. It can also output estimated user benefits attached to an airport capacity scheme.
9	Baseline Operational Cost Model (BOCM)	Provides a robust estimate of the operational costs of HS2.
10	Bentley LEGION	The software is used to assess passenger flows in stations.
11	Biofuels Model	A model used to generate cost benefit estimates for biofuels policy and wider renewable energy policy decisions.
12	BL 7.1 Cost Assurance Process	Cost Model for assurance process of the Capital Cost Baseline 7.1 for HS2 Phase 1.
13	Bridges Tier 1 Model	The Bridges Tier 1 model forecasts the future work requirements and condition of Network Rail’s 25,000 underline and overline bridges. The model applies degradation at component level and performs work interventions within given budgets at either national or individual route level.
14	C2C Financal Model Suites (Franchise Agreement start date: 09/11/2014)	The Financial Model Suites are the source of the financial numbers used to populate the Franchise Payment tables (Schedule 8) in the Franchise Agreement. These tables form the basis of payments between the DfT and the TOC.
15	CBA Tool	This tool helps to support decision making about safety-related enhancements.
16	Cobalt	Software calculating the impact on accidents as part of an economic appraisal of a road scheme in line with transport analysis guidance. See: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/cobalt-software-and-user-manuals.
17	Common Consequence Tool	The Common Consequence Tool (CCT) provides a method for estimating the potential safety consequences (fatalities and injuries to train occupants) arising from a train derailment, independent of the cause of derailment.
18	Common Risk Scoring Matrix for Safety (CRSM4S)	CRSM4S compares the various assets/functional/operational event risks on a constant basis.
19	Concessionary Travel Reimbursement Tool	The model is used by independent adjudicators acting on behalf of the Secretary of State in arbitrating disputes between TCAs and Operators.
20	Consolidated Funding	A model used for financial modelling and HS2 Funding consolidation.
21	Cost & Value Planning Model	The Cost and Value Planning Model takes financial and non-financial inputs from across Highways England and uses them to produce clear dashboards for decision makers.
22	Covid Bus Service Suport Grant Model	Estimates the funding gap between operating costs and revenues for the bus sector in England outside of London. It uses published 2018/19 stats on operating costs and revenue and adjusts for key inputs and assumptions, such as service levels, variable costs, and fare revenue, to produce estimates of funding support. The estimated funding support is used in the CBSSG calculator to estimate the CBSSG rate paid to each operator.
23	Covid Forecasting Tool	Forecasts rail revenue under different possible covid scenarios
24	Cross Country (Franchise Agreement start date: 16/10/2016)	The Financial Model is a model that underpins the Franchise Agreement, and is a contractual reference point for formulating Franchise Payments.
25	Cross Country Franchise Comparator Modelling Suite	A series of spreadsheet models designed to forecast costs, revenues and economic benefits of the franchise and to test options (across a range of policy areas) for inclusion in the Cross Country Franchise specification. The full modelling suite consists of operating cost models, demand and revenue model, performance model, fares model, financial model and an appraisal model. Together this forms the compactor modelling suite. The comparator model suite also draws on inputs from several sources, including the Department’s Cross Country MOIRA 2.2 model.
26	Crossrail GLA/TFL Loan interest model	Covers two loan interest and principal repayment models in spreadsheet format. The objective is to understand: 1. When and how much to invoice to GLA or TfL in terms of principal and interest payments 2. The impact on budgets for finance
27	Crossrail Investment Model	The CIM assembles cost outturns and estimates for different components of the Crossrail project.
28	Crowding Model	The crowding model is used to estimate the socio-economic impacts of changes to crowding and capacity in line with DfT WebTAG guidance.
29	Cycling and Walking Investment Strategy (CWIS) model	This model is used to understand the impact of current and future investment in cycling & walking interventions on the level of active travel. Outputs include the amount of additional active travel generated from national investment scenarios.
30	DCF Appraisal Template	Contains all the relevant generic values and assumptions in line with DfT WebTAG guidance and requires the input of investment scheme specific assumptions. These are combined to calculate the BCR and NPV of the scheme and any options/sensitivities to allow like for like comparison with other schemes.
31	DCF Investment Model (Property)	Model is used to appraise property investment appraisals relating to arch/retail refurbishments and other related opportunities.
32	Demand Driver Generator (DDG) network of models	This network of models is a series of spreadsheet tools used to come up with a standard set of exogenous inputs to be used in rail elasticity based forecasting.
33	Departmental Pay model	This model is used to cost the annual pay award for staff in the central Department and its executive agencies.
34	Design Manual for Roads and Bridges Air Quality Spreadsheet Model	The DMRB air quality spreadsheet model has been developed to enable HE to assess the impacts of its schemes allowing for changes in traffic conditions over the course of the day at a wide range of receptors. The model is capable of accounting for different traffic conditions including free flow and congestion. The model has been validated against wide range of local air quality monitoring.
35	DfT CTRL Model Master Sheet	Calculates cash and non-cash movements on financial instruments issued by CTRL Section 1 Finance plc.
36	DIADEM (Dynamic Integrated Assignment and Demand Modelling)	A generic software package that enables practitioners to easily set up variable demand models in accordance with the advice provided in TAG. This tool provides a simple way to link highway assignment models to a variable demand model.
37	Discounted Cash Flow Model	Calculates appraisal outputs for rail enhancements.
38	East Anglia Financial Model (Franchise Agreement start date: 16/10/16)	The Financial Model is used to calculate the franchise payments between the TOC and SoS under the East Anglia Franchise Agreement and to calculate changes to those payments when Changes occur.
39	East Midlands Railway_18-08-2019	The Financial Model is the source of the financial data used to populate the tables in the Franchise Agreement which are in themselves the basis of the payments/ income between the Dft and the TOC (EMR).
40	Electric Car Cost model (ECCo)	The ECCo model is a tool used to produce projections of ULEV costs and uptake to 2050. The central part of ECCo is a consumer choice model.
41	Electrification & Plant Tier 1 whole lifecycle cost model	Forecasts electrical power asset renewal costs, volumes and outputs (sustainability) over 35 years. Output informs electrical power renewal strategy and sustainability.
42	Engineering Safety ALARP Model	Outline engineering safety ALARP tool for performing ALARP engineering design calculations.
43	Exogenous Demand Growth Estimator (EDGE)	The model estimates growth in demand for rail travel based on exogenous factors such as employment, population and GDP. It implements the industry accepted (PDFH) methodology for forecasting demand based on forecasts of demand drivers and elasticities.
44	Finance Budget Model	Handles VCA’s diverse portfolio of business related activities. Based on spreadsheets which track VCA’s current position and predict future income and costs.
45	First Greater Western Financial Model (Franchise Agreement contract signature date: 22/03/2015)	The Financial Model is a model that underpins the Franchise Agreement, and is a contractual reference point for formulating Franchise Payments and Target Revenue in line with Appendix 2 & Appendix 8. Model effective from 20th September 2015.
46	Forecasting of Approximate Revenue Model (FARM)	FARM is used to test the impacts of key demand drivers (including fare policy) on demand and revenue.
47	General Lighthouse Fund Long-Term Cash Reserves Forecast Model	The Model produces a 10-year forecast of the General Lighthouse Fund cash reserves. It is used to predict the performance of the Fund, sensitivity test the Fund’s resilience to changes in external factors and achieve the Department’s strategy of maintaining stability in Light Dues rates.
48	Great Western DA3 Financial Model (Franchise Agreement contract signature date: 27/03/2020)	The Financial Model is a model that underpins the Franchise Agreement, and is a contractual reference point for formulating Franchise Payments.
49	Highways England Regional Traffic Models	The Highways England Regional Traffic Models consist of five strategic SATURN highway models covering the entirety of England. The models focus on the strategic road network.
50	Highways England VOC & VOT Spreadsheet	Converts various data provided by DfT’s TAG data book into standard travel cost inputs (pence per km, pence per minute) for traffic models. The purpose of the spreadsheet is to ensure a standardised and error free approach to a series of complex calculations used by a range of different users in the supply chain.
51	Highways Maintenance Funding Needs Element Formula model	The model is used to allocate highways maintenance funding between local authorities.
52	HS2 Economic Case Capex Model	The primary purpose of the model is to take HS2 capex cost data and apply transformations such as discounting to produce economically transformed capex cost forecasts for High Speed 2 which comply with DfT WebTAG & HM Treasury Green Book guidance. The model also develops cost estimates for infrastructure renewals over the whole appraisal period.
53	HS2 landscape appraisal model	The model is used in the assessment of landscape impacts of HS2 including the monetisation of the landscape impacts using the TAG guidance.
54	HS2 Property Cost Model	The model is used to forecast the financial outlay to the Department arising from discretionary property compensation schemes proposed on the line of the consulted HS2 route.
55	Imperfect Competition Airline Model (ICAM)	The core of this model is constituted by a standard monopolistic competition framework that tries to predict individual airlines’ responses to changes in market structure and/or in their cost base or demand.
56	Indirects Allocation Model	Financial model allocating all forecasted indirect and corporate costs to each phase of the project to inform indirect cost element of baseline costs
57	Infrastructure Cost Model (Buildings)	The Buildings Tier 1 model allocates capital renewal expenditure between assets, according to short-term requirements (based on current condition) and asset management policy (prioritising more critical assets). Renewals are estimated for the medium term (next five years) and the long-term (whole life cycle).
58	Infrastructure Cost Model (Signalling)	The Signalling Tier 1 model uses plans of major signalling renewals to forecast cost, volume, condition, maintenance, reliability, safety, and operations cost for the medium term (50 years).
59	Infrastructure Cost Model (Telecoms)	Telecoms Tier 1 model for calculating future costs from telecoms renewals, and estimate residual life of telecoms assets for the next 35 years.
60	Integrated Transport Block Formula model	The Integrated Transport Block funding totals £1.5bn over 6 years from 2015/16 to 2020/21. This model is used to allocate this funding between authorities. For a full explanation of the model please refer to: http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20120606202955/http://assets.dft.gov.uk/publications/local-transport-capital-block-funding/it-block-formula-explanatory-note.pdf
61	Intercity Express Programme East Coast Main line financial model	Analyses the financial impacts of the contract for Intercity Express trains on the East Coast Mainline.
62	Intercity Express Programme Great Western Main line financial model	Analyses the financial impacts of the contract for Intercity Express trains on the Great Western Mainline.
63	Local Bus Model	A policy simulation model for economic cost benefit analysis of the bus market. Capable of estimating impacts of policy interventions, such as subsidies. This is used to inform policy decisions related to the level Bus Service Operator Grant (BSOG), such as the rate.
64	Long Term Financial Forecast	Calculates the future forecast net income and expenditure of DVSA.
65	Lower Thames Area Model (LTAM) traffic model	The Lower Thames Area Model (LTAM) is a traffic model created to generate the forecasts of traffic that will use the LTC scheme upon opening and during the design life of the scheme. It is supporting the scheme through Statutory Consultation and Development Consent Order application.
66	LSER (Franchise Agreement start date: 01/04/2020)	The Financial Model is the source of the financial numbers used to populate the Franchise Payment tables (Schedule 8) in the Franchise Agreement. These tables form the basis of payments between the DfT and the TOC.
67	Matrix Charging Model	The matrix charging model is used to calculate the Police Service Agreement (“PSA”) charges for the Network Rail, train operating companies and train freight companies that fund the British Transport Police (“BTP”).
68	MOIRA	The model is an assignment of demand to trains tool. It is used to analyse the impacts of changes in timetables and rolling stock initiatives. It is also often a core model used to construct revenue models for franchise operations.
69	MOIRA (Network Rail Version)	MOIRA is used to provide revenue, journeys and passenger miles by arc, flow or service group. It also provides train loadings for the modelling of crowding. This can be done for a number of base timetables or for timetables specified by the user. Specified timetables can be compared to the base to understand the implications of the timetable change in terms of the factors described above. Outputs from MOIRA are used within the crowding template and the DCF Appraisal template.
70	MOIRA2 (Network Rail Version)	Passenger demand forecasting model capable of assessing the impact of timetable changes, modelling of crowding, and calculation of economic benefits.
71	MOIRA2	MOIRA2 has been developed jointly between DfT and the rest of rail industry, as a replacement to current MOIRA model. This model is aimed at analysing timetable-related changes but also undertaking crowding calculation which MOIRA does not do.
72	MOIRA2.2	This model is a rail-industry widely accepted and used model for rail demand forecasting and allocation of demand to train services on the rail network.
73	MOIRA2.2 (HS2 version)	Uses passenger forecast model (PFM) demand projections to break down demand into service by service allocations.
74	National Transport Model (NTM)	This is a multi-modal model of land based transport in Great Britain. It is used for strategic policy analysis and to provide the Department’s road traffic and emissions forecasts.
75	National Transport Model Cost Benefit Analysis Tool	To apply cost benefit analysis to scenarios modelled in the National Transport Model (NTM). Outputs are an analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits (AMCB) table for the scenario modelled versus the baseline.
76	Network Rail Cash Flow Model	Spreadsheet based model developed to monitor short-term and rolling annual cash requirements. The model is used to manage Network Rail’s monthly requests for cash grants from the DfT.
77	Network Rail Financial Model	Model that uses business plans and other assumptions such as WACC, RPI, working capital, and interest rates to derive financial projections and scenarios across multiple control periods.
78	No Net Loss in biodiversity calculation	Measures the habitats present pre-and post-construction of HS2 to compare the likely losses and gains in biodiversity units as a consequence of the scheme, in order to measure progress towards HS2 Ltd’s objective of seeking to achieve no net loss in biodiversity at a routewide level.
79	Northern_ARRIVA_Financial_Model_v3 CH02-file 1 of 1 (Franchise Agreement start date: 01/04/16)	The Financial Model is the source of the financial numbers used to populate the tables in the Franchise Agreement which are in themselves the basis of the payments between the DfT and the TOC.
80	Observed Data Analytics Tool	Uses timing data from the Control Centre of the Future (CCF) to analyse real-world running data against current values within the Timetable Planning Rules and produces change recommendations to the TPRs based on the real-world outputs.
81	Performance Target Setting Models - including CRM-P setting process	Provides input into the setting of performance targets for NR and the Train Operating Companies.
82	PLANET Framework Model v9 (PFMv9)	The model is used to forecast demand for journeys, both with and without HS2. This is used for appraisal purposes, the key output being the benefits for the HS2 Economic Case. The model is also used for other purpouses requiring HS2 demand forecasts. This includes transport assessments and route development work.
83	Port freight traffic forecasts	Model for producing national forecasts of freight traffic at major UK ports covering 2017-2050.
84	Port Simulations - Short Straits	Simul8 Discrete Event Simulations to analyse flow and queues through ports.
85	Property Management Model	The model is used to help inform property management decisions relating to properties acquired by SoST as a result of the HS2 programme.
86	Rail Emissions Model (REM)	For given user defined years and rail timetables, REM produces estimates of rail energy for traction, carbon emissions and associated social costs for passenger and freight services on the GB rail network.
87	Rail finance Long-Term Forecast (LTF)	The model produces a long-term (>10 years) forecast of the financial position for Rail finances at the level of individual rail franchises and projects.
88	Rail Uncertainty Model	The model predicts uncertainty around our central rail demand forecasts.
89	RailSys	Used to develop and analyse timetables on infrastructure layouts (with associated manual analysis and interpretation of infrastructure constraints).
90	RIOC (Rail Industry Operating Costs)	Model for assessment of rolling stock costs. Aims to calculate all capital (lease) and operating costs for various types of rolling stock.
91	RoCaFF (Road Carbon and Fuel Fleet model)	An Excel model containing large matrices breaking down the car fleet in each year (and its fuel efficiency performance) by vintage.
92	Rolling Stock Tender Evaluation Models which consists of the WLV model and Financial Proforma Template model	Model used to evaluate tenders for the HS2 Phase One rolling stock contract
93	SACAM (Surface access cost apportionment model)	The model applies the cost apportionment formula to allocate the upfront costs associated with a surface access scheme between Government and an airport operator.
94	SCAnNeR (Earthworks Tier 1 Model)	SCAnNeR is a strategic decision support tool which offsets degradation against a number of intervention strategies, thereby assisting asset managers in finding the optimal volumes of work.
95	Schedule 4 ACS & Compensation model	This model and underlying analysis estimates the likely Schedule 4 compensation expenditure by Network Rail Route and Operator based on expected levels of renewals and maintenance expenditure. It’s primary purpose is to estimate the funding requirements for Control Period 6 for Schedule 4 and the Access Charge Supplement.
96	Securitisation master- Model master#2 -2003-11-04 as trad_2012_live.xls	Calculates cash payments and interest on the Secretary of State’s liabilities in respect of the notes issued by CTRL Section 1 Finance plc
97	Service accounts	Calculates the profitabality of each group of services provided by DVSA.
98	Signal Berth Offset Schedule 8 Model - Ready Reckoner	Model to neutralise the financial impact of berthing offset changes in the Schedule 8 performance Regime to ensure that changes to offsets, and therefore more accurate train reporting, can be implemented with no financial impact on access parties.
99	SORAT	SORAT software provides the functionality to record all signal overrun risk assessments and forms the formal Network Rail record a signals overrun risk.
100	SoSERAS and SoSERASe	SoSERAS is a mode choice model that produces mode split air passenger demand forecasts for surface access to and from Heathrow and Gatwick. A parallel model, SoSERASe, provide a similar function for airport employees.
101	South West Trains First MTR Financial Model v13	The Financial Model is the source of the financial numbers used to populate the Franchise Payment tables (Schedule 8) in the Franchise Agreement. These tables form the basis of payments between the DfT and the Train Operating Company (TOC).
102	TAG Data Book	The Data Book provides recommended values for modelling and appraisal referred to in WebTAG
103	Technical Test Reports	Determines whether specific Type Approval legislative requirements have been met. Over 70 models or variants associated with the legislation have been developed at VCA and are combined into one single item on this register.
104	The highways maintenance appraisal tool (HMAT)	The highways maintenance appraisal tool (HMAT) is a spreadsheet based model. It allows local highway authorities to assess the economic costs and benefits of proposed asset management strategies. It also allows them to compare different options.
105	The National Trip End Modelling suite (NTEM)	The model is used to input travel demand forecasts into the National Transport Model and other transport models.
106	The Trip End Model Presentation Program (TEMPRO)	A software package that presents the National Trip End Model data set (NTEM) in the public domain.
107	TOC Revenue Model (TRM) v1.1	Uses HS2 MOIRA2.2 inputs to profile PFM incremental revenues between HS2 Ltd. and other train operating companies. This model was formerly known as the SRC (Streamlined Revenue Calculator).
108	TPE First Financial - Financial Model v8 (Franchise Agreement start date: 01/04/16)	The Financial Model is the source of the financial numbers used to populate the tables in the Franchise Agreement which are in themselves the basis of the payments between the DfT and the TOC.
109	Traction Electricity Costing Model	Traction Electricity price locks are recorded and train operator Electric Current for Traction (EC4T) tariffs are calculated.
110	TRAIL	TRAIL is a tool used to assess Railway System Performance. It uses discrete event methods to dynamically simulate the operating railway for 50+ years and output journey lateness. Built models reflect the timetable, infrastructure, system reliability, and delay impacts upon running services.
111	Transport Energy Model (TEM)	Provides estimates of energy consumption and pollutant emissions for a range of vehicle technologies covering cars, vans, HGVs and buses.
112	TSGN (Franchise Agreement start date: 11/06/2014)	The Financial Model is the source of the financial numbers used to populate the Franchise Payment tables (Schedule 8) in the Franchise Agreement. These tables form the basis of payments between the DfT and the TOC.
113	TUBA (Transport Users Benefit Appraisal)	TUBA undertakes economic appraisal for multi-modal transport study.
114	UK Civil Aircraft Noise Contour Model (ANCON)	A model used for aviation noise mapping.
115	Values of travel time savings and reliability	Models developed to estimate values of travel time savings, reliability and other related factors.
116	Vegetation Management WLC Model	Forecasts cost and volumes to perform vegetation management.
117	VISION	This software accurately simulates the interaction of trains with one another and with the signalling system on complex networks.
118	VTISM (Track Tier 1 Model)	The Vehicle Track Interaction Strategic Model (VTISM) is a cross-industry supported modelling tool. It forecasts the whole-life costs and outputs arising from track renewals and maintenance, and train wheel-set maintenance, for various user-specified asset management policies and future traffic projections.
119	West Midlands Trains 2017	The Financial Model is the source of the financial numbers used to populate the tables in the Franchise Agreement which are in themselves the basis of the payments between the DfT and the TOC.
120	Western Rail Link to Heathrow Economic Appraisal Model	The model used for the Economic appraisal of the Western Rail Link to Heathrow (WRLtH) Outline Business Case. This brings together the estimated costs and monetised benefits of the scheme.
121	WITA (Wider Impacts Transport Appraisal)	WITA (Wider Impacts in Transport Appraisal) is a software tool used to estimate the wider impacts of transport schemes that are not part of conventional transport user benefit appraisal.