Guidance

DfT register of business critical models – April 2021

Updated 12 January 2022

A list of all business critical models held within the Department for Transport (DfT), as of April 2021.

The Macpherson Review of the quality assurance of government models classed a model as business critical where:

• the modelling drives essential financial and funding decisions
• the model is essential to the achievement of business plan actions and priorities
• errors could engender serious financial, legal, reputational damages or penalties

The table provides a list of the business critical models held and used within DfT and its arm’s length bodies in April 2021.

Model number	Model name	Brief description
1	A303 Stonehenge SWRTM DCO Traffic Model	The model is a traffic model created to generate the forecasts of traffic that will use the A303 Amesbury to Berwick Down scheme upon opening and during the design life of the scheme. It supports the scheme through Statutory Consultation, the Development Consent Order application and the production of the Full Business Case.
2	A428 Black Cat to Caxton Gibbet DCO Model	The model is a traffic model created to generate the forecasts of traffic that will use the A428 BC-CG scheme upon opening and during the design life of the scheme. It supports the scheme through Statutory Consultation and Development Consent Order application.
3	Active Mode Appraisal Toolkit (AMAT)	The toolkit estimates the benefit-cost ratio for cycling and walking schemes following the assumptions and methods set out in TAG Unit A5.1 active mode appraisal.
4	Air Travel Trust (ATT) Fund – Cash Flow Model	This model tracks and forecasts the balance of the Air Travel Trust Fund.
5	ALCRM	All Level Crossing Risk Model (ALCRM) is a risk score calculator used as a basis for forming comparisons for Level Crossing on the Infrastructure.
6	Availability Workbench	Availability Workbench is specialist system availability modelling software that uses Reliability Block Diagram (RBD) to model system configurations for complex rail systems.
7	Aviation model	The model forecasts aviation passenger demand, air transport movements and carbon emissions. It can also output estimated user benefits attached to an airport capacity scheme.
8	Baseline Operational Cost Model (BOCM)	Provides a robust estimate of the operational costs of HS2.
9	Bentley LEGION	The software is used to assess passenger flows in stations, test network change scenarios at individual stations, support the development of better station designs and undertake safety validation of station layouts. This analysis is then used in economic appraisals and strategic cases for change.
10	Biofuels Model	The model is used to assess the impacts of an increase in the use of renewable fuels in transport, including the cost on suppliers and motorists and the benefits from reduced GHG emissions.
11	Bridges Tier 1 Model	The model forecasts the future work requirements and condition of Network Rail’s 25,000 underline and overline bridges. Applies degradation at component level and performs work interventions within given budgets at either national or individual route level.
12	CBA Tool	NR tool for quantifying safety benefits of a decision (CBA). The tool does not make the decision; it helps users to review the issues and factors that influence the decision.
13	Cobalt	Software calculating the impact on accidents as part of an economic appraisal of a road scheme in line with transport analysis guidance.
14	Common Consequence Tool	The tool provides a method for estimating the potential safety consequences (fatalities and injuries to train occupants) arising from a train derailment, independent of the cause of derailment.
15	Common Risk Scoring Matrix for Safety (CRSM4S)	CRSM4S can compare the various assets, functional and operational event risks on a constant basis. The tool does not make the decisions; it helps users to identify assets and events of high safety risk that can influence their decisions.
16	Concessionary Travel Reimbursement Tool	The model is used by independent adjudicators acting on behalf of the Secretary of State for Transport in arbitrating disputes between Travel Concession Authorities and operators.
17	Consolidated Funding	A model used for financial modelling and HS2 funding consolidation.
18	COVID Arrivals Policy Testing Simulation (CAPTS)	The model tracks a cohort of travellers through their journey, from pre-departure to arrival in the UK and eventually into the community. The outputs measure the effectiveness of the policies in place stopping infected individuals from entering the community.
19	COVID Bus Service Support Grant (CBSSG) Model	The tool allows users to estimate the funding gap between operating costs and revenues for the bus sector in England, outside of London, to produce estimates of funding support. The estimated funding support is used in the CBSSG calculator to estimate the CBSSG rate paid to each operator.
20	COVID Forecasting Tool	Creates 3 scenarios of potential rail demand in the short, medium and long term. The projected demand is in response to both the spread and impact of COVID, behavioural changes and economic factors.
21	Crossrail Greater London Authority (GLA) Tranche one interest model	Interest and principal repayment model in spreadsheet format for tranche one of the GLA Loan. The objective is to understand: 1. When and how much to invoice to GLA in terms of principal and interest payments 2. The impact on budgets for finance
22	Crossrail Investment Model	The CIM assembles cost outturns and estimates for different components of the Crossrail project.
23	Crowding Model	The crowding model is used to estimate the socio-economic impacts of changes to crowding and capacity in line with DfT TAG.
24	Cycling and Walking Investment Strategy (CWIS) model	Projects the number of cycling, walking and walk to school stages generated by different levels of active travel spending.
25	DCF Appraisal Template	The discounted cash flow model is used for calculating benefits and costs for a business case appraisal.
26	DCF Investment Model (Property)	Model is used to appraise property investment appraisals relating to arch and retail refurbishments and other related opportunities. The report also generates incremental cashflows by year for a maximum period of 25 years.
27	Demand Driver Generator (DDG) network of models	This network of models is a series of spreadsheet tools used to come up with a standard set of exogenous inputs to be used in rail elasticity based forecasting.
28	Departmental Pay model	This model is used to cost the annual pay award for staff in the central DfT and its executive agencies.
29	DfT CTRL Model Master Sheet	Calculates cash and non-cash movements on financial instruments issued by CTRL Section 1 Finance plc.
30	DIADEM (Dynamic Integrated Assignment and Demand Modelling)	A generic software package that enables practitioners to easily set up variable demand models in accordance with the advice provided in TAG. This tool provides a simple way to link highway assignment models to a variable demand model.
31	Discounted Cash Flow Model	The model calculates appraisal outputs for rail enhancements.
32	DMRB Air Quality Model	Spreadsheet model used to undertake air quality modelling of roads.
33	Electric Car Cost model (ECCo)	The ECCo model is a tool used to produce projections of ultra-low emission vehicle costs and uptake to 2050.
34	Electrification and Plant Tier 1 whole lifecycle cost model	Forecasts electrical power asset renewal costs, volumes and outputs (sustainability) over 35 years. Output informs electrical power renewal strategy and sustainability.
35	Engineering Safety ALARP (As Low As Reasonably Possible) Model	The model discounts safety benefits and costs of safety measures according to well established methods for comparison and decision making.
36	Exogenous Demand Growth Estimator (EDGE)	EDGE is a rail demand model used to calculate estimates for rail growth rates using any relevant demand driver. Typical drivers include GDP, population and employment. These growth rates are using in rail modelling and the forecasting of demand.
37	Finance Budget Model	Handles the Vehicle Certification Agency’s (VCA) diverse portfolio of business-related activities. Based on spreadsheets which track VCA’s current position and predict future income and costs.
38	General Lighthouse Fund Long-Term Forecast Model	The model produces a 10 year forecast of the General Lighthouse Fund cash reserves. It is used to predict the performance of the fund, sensitivity test the fund’s resilience to changes in external factors and achieve DfT’s strategy of maintaining stability in light dues rates.
39	Greater London Authority (GLA) Loan for Crossrail Model - Commitments 2 and 3	Interest and principal repayment model in spreadsheet format for tranches 2 and 3 of the GLA Loan. The objective is to understand: 1. When and how much to invoice to GLA or TfL in terms of principal and interest payments 2. The impact on budgets for finance
40	Greener Bus Model	The tool allows users to estimate the cost benefit cost ratio (BCR) of different bus models (hybrid, zero emission) compared to diesel. The model takes into consideration differences in upfront capital costs, infrastructure, operating costs, and environmental benefits.
41	Highways England Regional Traffic Models	Consists of 5 strategic SATURN highway models covering the entirety of England. The models focus on the strategic road network.
42	Highways England VOC and VOT Spreadsheet	Converts the various data provided by DfT’s TAG data book into standard travel cost inputs (pence per km, pence per minute) for traffic models. The purpose is to ensure a standardised approach to a series of complex calculations used by a range of different users in the supply chain.
43	Highways Maintenance Funding Needs Element Formula model	The model is used to allocate highways maintenance funding between local authorities.
44	HS2 Economic Case Capex Model	The primary purpose of the model is to take HS2 capital expenditure (capex) cost data and apply transformations such as discounting to produce economically transformed capex cost forecasts for HS2.
45	HS2 Enterprise Data Platform	Data platform used to process and structure project controls and other delivery system data to enable automated performance reporting and business performance decisions.
46	HS2 landscape appraisal model	This model aims to estimate the monetised impact of landscape changes from large rail schemes.
47	HS2 Property Cost Model	The model is used to forecast the financial cost to DfT arising from discretionary property compensation schemes along the consulted HS2 line of route.
48	Imperfect Competition Airline Model (ICAM)	The core of this model is constituated by a standard monopolistic competition framework that tries to predict individual airlines’ responses to changes in market structure and their cost base or demand. The model covers the air passenger market only (no freight).
49	Indirects Allocation Model	Financial model allocating all forecasted indirect and corporate costs to each phase of the project to inform indirect cost element of baseline costs
50	Infrastructure Cost Model (Buildings)	The model allocates capital renewal expenditure between assets, according to short-term requirements (based on current condition) and asset management policy (prioritising more critical assets). Renewals are estimated for the medium term (next 5 years) and the long-term (whole life cycle).
51	Infrastructure Cost Model (Signalling)	The model takes inputs of signalling asset data, condition and plans for current work, and estimates the impact of the plans on future condition, capital spend and work volumes and forecasts maintenance, reliability, safety and spend on signaller heads. Allows NR to establish their most preferred plans for investment and provides assurance to the rest of the business and industry regarding the necessity and sufficiency of those plans.
52	Infrastructure Cost Model (Telecoms)	Telecoms Tier 1 model for calculating future costs from telecoms renewals and estimate residual life of telecoms assets for the next 35 years.
53	Integrated Transport Block Formula model	The model which underpins the integrated transport block allocations for 2015 to 2022.
54	Local Bus Model	A policy simulation model for economic cost benefit analysis of the bus market. Capable of estimating impacts of policy interventions, such as subsidies. This is used to inform policy decisions related to the level Bus Service Operator Grant (BSOG), such as the rate.
55	Lower Thames Area Model (LTAM) traffic model	This is a traffic model created to generate the forecasts of traffic that will use the Lower Thames Crossing scheme upon opening and during the design life of the scheme. It is supporting the scheme through statutory consultation and the Development Consent Order application.
56	Matrix Charging Model	The model is used to calculate the core Police Service Agreement (PSA) charges for the Network Rail, Amey Keolis Infrastructure Limited, train operating companies and train freight companies that fund the British Transport Police (BTP).
57	MOIRA	MOIRA is an industry-standard model, used for analysing changes in timetables and rolling stock initiatives and the monetisable impact of these changes on train loads and revenue allocation between train operating companies. The model is an assignment of demand to trains tool and is often a core model used to construct revenue models for franchise operations.
58	MOIRA (Network Rail version)	MOIRA is a rail timetable model which calculates generalised journey times and can compare the demand and revenue impacts of different rail timetables.
59	MOIRA 2 (Network Rail version)	Passenger demand forecasting model capable of assessing the impact of timetable changes, modelling of crowding and calculation of economic benefits.
60	MOIRA2	MOIRA2 has been developed jointly between DfT and the rail industry as a replacement to the current MOIRA model. This model is aimed at analysing timetable-related changes but also undertaking crowding calculations which MOIRA does not do.
61	MOIRA2.2	This is an industry-wide accepted rail model used in analysing demand and revenue changes from rail timetable changes.
62	National Transport Model (NTM)	This is a series of sub-models covering different aspects of travel demand, including a demand model, a road capacity model and LGV forecasting model
63	National Transport Model Cost Benefit Analysis Tool	To apply cost benefit analysis to scenarios modelled in the National Transport Model (NTM). Outputs are an analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits (AMCB) table for the scenario modelled versus the baseline.
64	Network Rail Cash Flow Model	Model to record actual daily cash flows and to forecast future cash flows. This enables Network Rail to request the appropriate amount of grant from DfT.
65	No Net Loss in Biodiversity Calculation	Measures the habitats present pre-and post-construction of HS2 to compare the likely losses and gains in biodiversity units as a consequence of the scheme, in order to measure progress towards HS2 Ltd’s objective of seeking to achieve no net loss in biodiversity at a routewide level.
66	Observed Data Analytics Tool	Uses timing data from the Control Centre of the Future (CCF) to analyse real-world running data against current values within the Timetable Planning Rules (TPRs) and produces change recommendations to the TPRs based on the real-world outputs.
67	Performance Target Setting Models - including CRM-P setting process	Process for collating regional performance plans and setting performance targets.
68	PLANET Economic Appraisal (PEA) Tool	A spreadsheet model used to calculate benefits and revenues over the full appraisal period of the HS2 scheme. The model draws together inputs from the PFM and the TAG databook.
69	PLANET Framework Model (PFM)	The model is used to forecast demand for journeys, both with and without HS2. This is used for appraisal purposes, the key output being the benefits for the HS2 Economic Case. The model is also used for other purposes requiring HS2 demand forecasts. This includes transport assessments and route development work.
70	Port freight traffic forecasts	Model for producing national forecasts of freight traffic at major UK ports covering 2017 to 2050.
71	Port Simulations - Short Straits	Discrete event simulation to analyse freight flow and queues through short straits ports.
72	Property Management Model	The model is used to help inform property management decisions relating to properties acquired by the Secretary of State for Transport as a result of the HS2 programme.
73	Rail Emissions Model (REM)	REM calculates and monetises the amount of carbon generated by passengers and freight for a rail scheme. This is used to support business case development.
74	Rail finance Long-Term Forecast (LTF)	The model produces a long-term (greater than 10 years) forecast of the financial position for rail finances at the level of individual rail franchises and projects
75	Rail Uncertainty Model	The model predicts uncertainty around rail demand forecasting.
76	RailSys	Used to develop and analyse timetables on infrastructure layouts (with associated manual analysis and interpretation of infrastructure constraints).
77	RoCaFF (Road Carbon and Fuel Fleet model)	Projects road transport fleet average emissions and fuel / energy consumption per km, alongside the split of mileage by electric, petrol or diesel vehicles.
78	Rolling Stock Tender Evaluation Models	Model used to evaluate tenders for the HS2 Phase One rolling stock contract
79	SCAnNeR (Earthworks Tier 1 Model)	SCAnNeR is a strategic decision support tool which offsets degradation against a number of intervention strategies, thereby assisting asset managers in finding the optimal volumes of work.
80	Schedule 4 ACS and Compensation model	This model estimates the likely Schedule 4 compensation expenditure by Network Rail Route and Operator based on expected levels of renewals and maintenance expenditure. Its primary purpose is to estimate the funding requirements for Control Period 6 for Schedule 4 and the Access Charge Supplement.
81	Signal Berth Offset Schedule 8 Model - Ready Reckoner	The model is used to re-calibrate Schedule 8 performance points as a reuslt of changes to berth offsets
82	SORAT (Signal Overrun Risk Assessment Tool)	SORAT software provides the functionality to record all signal overrun risk assessments and forms the formal Network Rail record of a signals overrun risk.
83	TAG Data Book	The TAG data book contains all the values in DfT TAG to be used in transport modelling and appraisal applications.
84	Technical Test Reports	Captures the mathematical and engineering aspects of automotive Type Approval legislation. Helps VCA to complete test reports and determine whether a manufacturer is meeting the legislative requirements.
85	TFL Loan Model	Interest and principal repayment model in spreadsheet format for the TfL Loan. The objective is to understand: 1. When and how much to invoice to TfL in terms of principal and interest payments 2. The impact on budgets for finance
86	The highways maintenance appraisal tool (HMAT)	This model allows local highway authorities to assess the economic costs and benefits of proposed asset management strategies. It also allows them to compare different options.
87	The National Trip End Modelling suite (NTEM)	This model is used to input travel demand forecasts into the National Transport Model and other transport models.
88	The Trip End Model Presentation Program (TEMPRO)	A software package that presents the National Trip End Model data set (NTEM) in the public domain.
89	Traction Electricity Costing Model	Traction Electricity price locks are recorded and train operator Electric Current for Traction (EC4T) tariffs are calculated.
90	TRAIL (Transportation, Reliability, Availability and Integrated Logistics) Model	TRAIL is a discrete event simulation software tool that is used to evaluate the performance of a railway by simulating the ability of a railway system to support the movement of trains as per a pre-defined operating timetable. The model provides a moving annual average equivalent view of performance.
91	TUBA (Transport Users Benefit Appraisal)	TUBA takes transport model outputs and converts the cost and demand matrices into monetisable user benefits for use in appraisal.
92	UK Civil Aircraft Noise Contour Model (ANCON)	A model used for aviation noise mapping.
93	Values of travel time savings and reliability	This model is an implementation tool used to estimate the values of time to be used in appraisal. The model was developed as part of the value of time study with ITS Leeds in 2015.
94	Vegetation Management Whole Life Cost (WLC) Model	This model is used to assess the future cost of maintaining vegetation along the track in order to be compliant.
95	VISION	Simulation software for carrying out deterministic calculations of the railway to determine capacity and the effects that renewals, upgrades and enhancements may have on this.
96	VTISM (Track Tier 1 Model)	This is a cross-industry supported modelling tool that forecasts the whole-life costs and outputs arising from track renewals and maintenance and train wheel-set maintenance, for various user-specified asset management policies and future traffic projections.
97	Western Rail Link to Heathrow Economic Appraisal Model	The model used for the economic appraisal of the Western Rail Link to Heathrow (WRLtH) Outline Business Case. This brings together the estimated costs and monetised benefits of the scheme.
98	WITA (Wider Impacts Transport Appraisal)	The WITA software allows analysts to estimate the wider economic impacts of transport schemes in line with methodologies set out in TAG.