DSTL: Reliability of R estimates - progress report, 2 July 2020
Papers prepared by the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (DSTL).
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Paper and its update prepared by Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (DSTL) on reliability of R estimates. It was considered at SAGE 45 on 2 July 2020.
It should be viewed in context: the paper was the best assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. The picture is developing rapidly and, as new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.
Therefore, some of the information in this paper may have been superseded and the author’s opinion or conclusion may since have developed.
This paper partly informed the ‘SPI-M-O: Consensus statement on COVID-19’, as published under SAGE 45 and should be read in that context. The SPI-M-O consensus view summarises the main discussion points on a proposed framework for a publication threshold for R and growth rates.
These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.
Redactions within this document have been made to remove any personal details and security markings.