Transparency data

Restart Programme Accounting Officer Assessment (July 2022)

Updated 21 October 2024

Applies to England, Scotland and Wales

It is normal practice for accounting officers to scrutinise significant policy proposals or plans to start or vary major projects, and then assess whether they measure up to the standards set out in Managing Public Money. From April 2017, the government has committed to making a summary of the key points from these assessments available to Parliament where it involves a project within the Government’s Major Projects Portfolio.

This Accounting Officer Assessment considers the Restart Programme which the Department for Work and Pensions launched in June 2021.

Background

The Restart employment programme was launched in June 2021 to support long-term claimants in the Intensive Work Search Regime of Universal Credit. An initial Assessment was published on 23 March 2021 and has been updated following a change in the expected position in live running.

Based on the trends observed in the first months, I expect that the volume of eligible and suitable claimants that will start on the programme will reduce significantly from the initial estimate of over 1 million over the programme life.

There are two main reasons for the reduction in volume. Firstly, this reflects a decrease in the expected number of claimants reaching 12 months plus on Universal Credit Intensive Work Search, due to the quicker than anticipated recovery from the pandemic and unemployment levels being lower than expected. Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) forecasts of the number of people that could be potentially eligible for the three-year programme, decreased from 2.4 million based on 2020 Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) autumn budget forecasts to 1.4 million based on 2022 OBR Spring Statement projections. Secondly, of those in the Intensive Work Search regime that fall into the Restart target groups, a smaller proportion than anticipated are being found suitable and eligible when considered by their work coach and starting on the scheme.

To ensure that DWP maximises the opportunity to support long-term unemployed claimants, the eligibility requirements for Restart have been expanded to include those who have been out of work for at least 9 months which will increase the number of people benefitting from the service and still maintain good value for money from the programme.

This means that those who are more than 9 months unemployed on the Universal Credit Intensive Work Search will be referred to the programme. This change, along with some smaller areas of expansion, means that we now anticipate that the number of people starting the programme will be around 700,000, though this number will continue to depend on the future labour market. The revised spend is expected to be around £1.7 billion from an initial budget of £2.9 billion. This is predominantly through lower volumes alongside commercial activity.

As this contract is in part based on payment by results, the final amount has some uncertainty and will crystallise over time.

Assessment against Accounting Officer Standards

Regularity

DWP is uniquely placed to deliver the objectives of the Restart Programme. It has the necessary legal powers, and it is aligned to the department’s ambit.

The commercial process has been subject to Cabinet Office and HM Treasury controls, as well as DWP Major Programme governance and assurance.

The assessment is unchanged, and the regularity test is met.

Propriety

The payment controls for the programme are built on the model developed for the Work and Health Programme.

Providers are paid based on their results supporting programme participants into sustained employment. Payment by results incentivises providers to deliver results. As a payment by results programme, the cost will depend on the performance of the providers relative to their performance. If providers deliver more outcomes than in their contracts then the cost will be higher than expected, and if providers deliver fewer outcomes than in their contracts then the cost will be lower than expected. The risks associated with provider over and underperformance will be managed in live running.

The assessment is unchanged, and the propriety test is met.

Value for Money

Whilst the programme is still expected to deliver value for money, the return on investment has reduced since the initial assessment, due to the reduced volumes increasing the overall unit cost. Expanding volumes are expected to deliver value for money for the additional groups and to improve the overall value for money of the programme as the additional volumes lower the overall unit cost, compared to what it would be if no changes were made. However, even with the action taken to increase volumes, the unit cost is expected to be higher than at the initial assessment, and the additionality benefits are likely to be lower as claimants who have not been out of work as long are brought into the programme.

I am still confident that the programme will deliver value for money, based on the strong evidence from The Work Programme and other contracted provision. On this basis, accounting for the higher unit cost and lower expected impact, the programme is expected to deliver a fiscal benefit (benefit savings and taxes to the Exchequer) of more than £1.40 and a social benefit of more than £1.70 for every pound spent. An impact evaluation will be undertaken to confirm the planned benefits generated by the Restart Programme.

On the basis of the positive fiscal benefit, the value for money test is met.

Feasibility

Delivery confidence for the remainder of the programme to the revised profile is high. Providers have been engaged and the revised profile does not substantially impact on the financial feasibility of contracts or the delivery models of suppliers. As over 250,000 claimants have started on the programme to date, there is lower volatility risk in the revised estimate.

The feasibility test is met.

Conclusion

In conclusion I have prepared this summary to set out the key points which informed my decision.

My overall assessment is that the Restart Programme continues to meet the requirements of the 4 accounting officer tests of regularity, propriety, value for money and feasibility.

If any of these factors change materially during the lifetime of this programme, I undertake to prepare a revised summary, setting out my assessment of those factors.

This summary will be published on the government’s website (GOV.UK). Copies will be deposited in the library of the House of Commons and sent to the Comptroller and Auditor General and Treasury Officer of Accounts.

Peter Schofield
Permanent Secretary