Research and analysis

Strategic foresight in the US Government Accountability Office

Published 29 August 2024

The US Government Accountability Office has embedded foresight in the way they work, providing policymakers with the information, resources and tools required to make informed decisions, anticipate future challenges, and ensure the efficient and effective use of public resources. 

What was the challenge? 

The Government Accountability Office (GAO) is an independent, non-partisan agency within the United States legislative branch of the federal government that provides oversight and auditing services to ensure the efficient and effective use of public funds, accountability, transparency, and good governance.  

Considered the “Congressional watchdog”, GAO was founded in 1921 to investigate the spending of federal dollars. Initially, the GAO focused on financial auditing, but it has since expanded to performance auditing, investigating outcomes and output of government, and promoting best practices to improve performance.  

In the 1970s, the GAO began to change the composition of its workforce, bringing in social scientists who conducted sophisticated work related to forecasts and projections. While the GAO had a history of conducting future-oriented studies, in the mid-2000s, David Walker, the head of GAO –  the Comptroller General of the US from 1998 to 2008 – addressed the World Futures Society to state that foresight was formally part of the GAO’s portfolio to better prepare for challenges and to understand the implications of policies. 

He argued that, “in the 21st century, the government needs to reexamine and evaluate both its strategic and tactical approaches” to various matters. Accordingly, he sought to empower the GAO to support Congress through “oversight, insight, and foresight”. Government agencies, lawmakers, and the White House typically focus on short-term thinking and planning. 

The GAO’s methodology group then began work to further delineate foresight methods by developing conceptual frameworks to ground foresight in various studies, such as an assessment of technology trends affecting highway safety as well as combining scenarios with other methods in a technology assessment of climate engineering research.  

While the GAO had a longstanding history in conducting oversight and insight work, the challenge for the agency was to strengthen its ability to identify emerging issues that federal agencies and Congress might face and help to prepare for them. The GAO needed to adopt more of a foresight practice in its strategic planning, using scenarios, trends, and external experts to improve the accuracy and scope of its audits. 

Moreover, the agency wanted to ensure that its foresight efforts supported its mission of providing non-partisan, independent, and fact-based analysis to Congress and the American people.  

What was the approach? 

The GAO’s approach to incorporating more strategic foresight involved: 

• Setting up the Center for Strategic Foresight to identify emerging issues 

• Establishing Science, Technology Assessment, and Analytics (STAA) 

• Incorporating foresight and emerging issues into its reports more broadly 

• Coordinating with the accountability community at the federal, inter-governmental and international levels. 

For decades, the GAO has also incorporated foresight and trends analysis into the development of its strategic plan. Most recently, in March 2022, the GAO published its Strategic Plan for Serving the Congress and the Nation for 2022 to 2027. This document utilised work shaped by foresight and futures thinking that had involved external experts, focus groups, and foresight tools and methodologies.  

To create the plan, the GAO took a forward-looking approach that included input from its own internal experts and its Center for Strategic Foresight, to help identify emerging issues which Congress and federal agencies would likely confront. The Center for Strategic Foresight was launched in 2017 and provides expertise and knowledge that is used to inform the quadrennial strategic planning effort. 

The GAO also established the Center for Audit Excellence initiative to provide training to strengthen their capabilities in foresight and other areas. To further enrich the culture of foresight within the agency and to spread its influence far beyond, since the mid-2000s the class of executives at the GAO have participated in a foresight boot camp as part of their training. 

An organisational culture attuned to foresight has built confidence in the GAO’s expertise. For instance, Comptroller General Dodaro created a specialist team, Science, Technology Assessment, and Analytics (STAA), and greatly expanded GAO’s cybersecurity workforce. STAA provides deep-dive research into topics related to emerging technology and science, providing Congress with technical assistance when they need it the most. In recent years, the STAA has developed reports and toolkits to help drive policy decisions and accountability in light of various emerging trends, such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and climate change. For example, STAA worked with the GAO’s foresight team to produce the first-ever AI accountability framework for government. 

By using this approach to inform decisions and shape strategy, and with the support of the Comptroller General, the GAO has built upon its reputation across the US and the world for being able to be good partners and helping to build foresight capacity. The agency has coordinated with the accountability community at the federal level, including the inspector generals across different federal agencies, officials from state and local audit organisations in the US, and the International Organization of Supreme Audit Institutions (INTOSAI), the largest non-political organisation of its type in the world. 

What was the impact? 

The GAO’s commitment to foresight has positively impacted government strategy by providing policymakers with the information, resources and tools required to make informed decisions, anticipate future challenges, and ensure the efficient and effective use of public resources. 

Notably, STAA’s output indicates how forward-thinking the GAO’s thinking is currently. Recent deep dives include synthetic biology, securing data for a post-quantum work, digital twins, and workforce challenges in a world of generative AI. 

Although it is hard to measure the success of foresight, the agency has used it for the following: 

• Strategic planning – to set its priorities, identify emerging trends and potential future challenges, and ensure it can fulfil its mission of providing objective and reliable information to Congress. 

• Technology assessment – as part of its work to assess the effectiveness of federal programmes and policies, the GAO has increasingly focused on nascent technologies and their potential impact on government operations. With foresight, it can recommend how the government could prepare for and adapt to these changes.  

• Risk management – for example, the GAO has used horizon scanning to identify potential risks and opportunities in areas such as cybersecurity, climate change, and demographic shifts. 

• Performance auditing – by identifying areas for improvement and recommending corrective actions, the GAO takes a prospective approach in helping federal agencies enhance their performance and achieve strategic objectives. It does this alongside producing long-term fiscal projections, which amplify the GAO’s core mission regarding efficient and effective use of public funds. 

A progressive, foresight-led culture has emboldened the GAO’s unique non-partisan position, enabling it to stand apart from – yet work alongside and influence – other government agencies while becoming increasingly important in an uncertain, volatile and fast-changing world that demands agility and expertise. 

Ultimately, the GAO has recognised the importance of foresight in its work and has developed a range of methods to help identify and anticipate emerging trends and challenges. By doing so, the GAO is better able to fulfil its mission and provide valuable information and insights to Congress and the American public. 

Written by the non-profit company School of International Futures for GO-Science, 2023.