Research and analysis

Escalation in the severity of offending behaviour

This study identifies the previous offences that were more frequently committed by criminals who ‘escalated’ to very serious offending.

Applies to England and Wales

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This study examines whether particular past offences are more frequent amongst criminals who ‘escalated’ to very serious offending than other repeat offenders, controlling for broader reoffending risk. Escalation to sexual and nonsexual homicide are studied, and to serious sexual assault (SSA) for those with and without prior sexual offending. Prior serious violence is associated with all homicide escalation, and coercive sexual behaviour with sexual homicide and SSA. Some violent offences are associated with SSA for those without sexual history. Additional analyses cover escalation to adult and child SSA offending, and adult nonsexual homicide of female partners, male strangers and male family/acquaintances.

Updates to this page

Published 30 March 2023
Last updated 25 April 2023 + show all updates
  1. Report updated.

  2. First published.

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