Estimating pupil numbers (EPN): how to complete your return for 2025 to 2026
How to complete the estimating pupil numbers (EPN) form for academic year 2025 to 2026
Applies to England
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The estimating pupil numbers form is now available for institutions to provide estimated pupil numbers for the academic year 2025 to 2026, where the funding agreement allows for estimate funding.
Please submit your form by 5:00pm on Friday, 18 October 2024. Your final budgets may be delayed if we do not receive your pupil number estimates by the deadline.
For multi-academy trusts (MATs), a return is required for each estimate funded academy in your trust. Once logged into the form, you will be able to see details for all academies within your trust that are in scope of this process.
We appreciate that estimating pupil numbers is not an exact science and can prove challenging. For most schools, a reasonable starting point to determine your estimated pupil numbers for the academic year 2025 to 2026 is your current actual intake. Where schools are expecting new year groups to be occupied within academic year 2025 to 2026, these should be reflected in the return.
Where estimates of pupil numbers are not provided, we will use the most recent census data to calculate your funding. If you are a growing school that is still adding year groups, this can result in a funding shortfall.
Moderation of estimated pupil numbers
We will review all estimated pupil numbers to ensure they are reasonable and well-evidenced. We will consider the October 2024 school census return, trends in pupil numbers, retention rates, the accuracy of previous estimates and any information you provide. If we have not accepted your figures, we will explain why, and you will be given the opportunity to provide further evidence to support your estimates.
Where necessary, we will contact institutions in early December 2024 to request additional evidence. Following this, there will be a further moderation before we confirm final outcomes in late January 2025.
Pupil number adjustments (PNA)
Inaccurate estimates can cause significant and problematic adjustments to funding allocations. Each year we reconcile estimates with actual pupil numbers, through the PNA exercise. Where this adjustment is positive (for instance, where funded numbers are less than those recorded in the census) it is made in the same academic year. Where funded numbers are higher than those recorded in the census, we will recover funds in the 2026 to 2027 academic year.
Trusts that have met the conditions in their funding agreement to move to census funding
It may be that the basis of funding for your academy will change to the census for 2025 to 2026. This is because, for most estimate funded institutions, determining the pupil number basis for funding requires meeting certain conditions. These conditions are set out in the funding agreement and, in most cases, relate to occupancy levels and/or that there are pupils in all expected year groups. We will use the autumn 2024 census to establish if these conditions have been met.
If the conditions have been met, the academy will move onto the lagged basis of funding methodology which will use the autumn 2024 census to determine the pupil numbers in the general annual grant (GAG) allocation. There is no pupil number adjustment with the lagged methodology.
Prior to the EPN process taking place, we do not have the census data to determine whether your basis of funding will be census or estimates. It is, therefore, important that you provide your pupils estimate now as it would be too late to request estimates in time to inform this funding allocation round, after the census has taken place.
There may be some institutions that will move to lagged census funding after providing estimated pupil numbers via the EPN. We will confirm whether the basis for funding will be lagged or estimates for all academies within your trust that have these clauses, in December 2024.
Important dates
The timeline for gathering and confirming 2025 to 2026 estimated pupil numbers is as follows:
| Date | Activity |
|---|---|
| 7 October 2024 | Estimating pupil numbers process launches – academies and trusts submit estimated pupil numbers |
| 18 October 2024 | Closing date for submitting the estimating pupil numbers online form |
| November 2024 to January 2025 | ESFA reviews estimated pupil numbers – with possible follow up questions for academies |
| Early January 2025 | ESFA will notify any academies that will no longer be funded on estimates in academic year 2025 to 2026 |
| End of January 2025 | ESFA will confirm agreed estimated pupil numbers – academies and trusts will have 14 days to raise any queries |
| End of March 2025 | ESFA will issue academic year 2025 to 2026 funding allocation statements |