Guidance

ERP Reporting Dashboard explainer

Published 20 August 2021

Applies to England

1. Introduction

The objectives of the Events Research Programme (ERP) are to build evidence on the risks associated with COVID-19 transmission routes, the characteristics of events and surrounding activities, and mitigation measures that can effectively address these risks. This dashboard includes the key management information from all three phases of the ERP, conducted between April and July 2021. Detailed findings from the Phase I pilots were published on the 1st July, including analysis from transmission, environment and behaviour studies. Research protocols for the studies have been published on the Science page for the ERP. Further detailed analysis of the Phase II and Phase III pilots will be published in due course.

2. What is included in the dashboard

The dashboard includes detailed management information about each event that took place as part of the ERP, including:

• Event information, such as the type of setting and any constraints on who could attend the event
• The Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) in use, such as reduced capacity, the use of testing or NHS App for entry and whether people had to wear face coverings
• Event day data, such as the numbers attending and the numbers of staff at the event
• The research studies which were in operation
• NHS Test and Trace data on reported cases which may be related to the event
• Contextual information on the underlying COVID-19 prevalence rate at the time of the event

3. How the data were collected

The background information on each event was compiled from the organisers of the programme and the event or event venue as well as management information from the ticketing and/or entry systems of individual events or event venues.

The NHS Test and Trace data were collected from individuals who had tested positive for COVID-19 and completed contact tracing either online or over the phone with an NHS Test & Trace agent. Cases have been associated with specific events using the following filters:

• date filter: event reported happened within the date range of the event AND
• geographical filter: either postcode of venue appears in the postcode field, or a keyword relating to location (e.g. ‘Wembley’) appears in the description AND
• activity filter: either a keyword relating to the event appears in the description, or the event was given a related category (e.g. ‘Football match’ or ‘Festival’).

The contextual information on underlying COVID-19 prevalence is taken from The ONS Coronavirus Infection Survey.

4. How to use the dashboard and interpret the data

A user should select an event of interest from the drop down box on the ‘Summary table’ tab. A more detailed dataset can be found on the ‘Data table’ tab. As well as providing detailed background information on each event this table can be used to see how many people who had attended an event had a positive COVID-19 test result (cases) reported through the NHS Test and Trace system.

Cases reported through the NHS Test and Trace system cannot be directly attributed to a specific event. While it is possible that transmission happened while the individual was at or near an event, the transmission location cannot be concluded from these data. Transmission could have occurred in or outside the event, for example on public transport or shared private transport to the event, within a household, or in a place unrelated to an ERP event. For more information on how Test and Trace data were gathered, please see Section 3.

Furthermore, this case data should be considered in the context of the factors that differ between events. This includes the prevalence within the community population at the time, the setting and activity undertaken, the Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions in place to mitigate transmission, the demographic characteristics of the attendees and many other factors such as at which step of the Roadmap the events were taking place, how people travelled to the venue (e.g. by public transport), and what they did before and after the event.

The total number of cases for a multi-day event cannot be inferred from adding together the number of cases associated with individual days. This is because of the risk of double counting which can occur when an individual who tested positive attended multiple days of a single event. Summarised totals of cases for multi-day events, which account for individuals attending on multiple days, are included in the dashboard. Summary totals for the attendance at multi-day or multi-session events provides the range of attendees from lowest to highest.

5. What the data tells us

As above, the NHS Test and Trace data cannot be directly attributed to transmission occurring at a specific ERP event or venue itself. Although the data may provide an indication of the number of cases associated with individual events, an estimate of the risk of infection associated with attendance at an ERP event will only be available when the analysis of the ERP is complete. This will include Phase II and Phase III studies outlined in the published research protocols. The final reports will be published in due course.

The number of positive COVID-19 cases associated with specific events has varied between events. Events earlier in the programme, which tended to be smaller in scale, had more restrictions in place, and were taking place at a time of lower community prevalence, have very low numbers of cases associated with them. Events in Phases II and III, which took place during a period of rising community prevalence, have higher numbers of cases associated with them, as would be expected.

Four events have been associated with higher numbers of cases (over 1,000). These are the EURO 2020 final (Italy vs England, 11 July) and one of the semi-finals (England vs Denmark, 7 July), Latitude Festival and Tramlines Festival. These events all took place during a period of higher underlying community prevalence with Latitude and Tramlines taking place during Step 4 of the roadmap. ​​It must be emphasised that it is not possible to attribute higher community prevalence as the sole reason for a high case rate, as other events (for example, Wimbledon’s final) were associated with lower than expected cases despite higher prevalence.

The final and the England vs Denmark semi-final of EURO 2020 were unusual events of national significance that encouraged people to come together to watch games and celebrate. The events attracted large numbers of people to the surrounding area that did not enter the venue itself (with significant crowd disturbances outside the stadium), as well as many who entered without authorisation, who are likely to be captured in the case numbers. This is likely to make comparisons with the official attendance of the events misleading.

Although useful for informing the approach to managing risks at major sports events these games are not considered typical of standard sporting events. A separate note published for public health purposes sets out more detail on the cases associated with EURO 2020, both at the events and nationally during the period. This notes that on the days of England’s EURO 2020 football matches, including the game that took place in Rome, there were subsequent spikes in cases across the country. Individuals that tested positive reported participating in a variety of activities including visiting bars, pubs, other households and eating out on match days. Transport to and from these events should also be considered. Attending sporting events themselves, including the games at Wembley stadium, contributed a small proportion of countrywide cases.

Many events in the ERP had attendees with a younger age profile and this is particularly the case for music festivals. Community prevalence has been higher for younger people during Phases II and III of the ERP. For example, during Latitude Festival and Tramlines Festival while national prevalence was estimated at 1 in 65 people, the prevalence for a 21 year old was estimated from the ONS Coronavirus Infection Survey at 1 in 35. It should also be considered that young people are less likely than older people to have been fully vaccinated ahead of attendance. Furthermore, these two festivals took place the first weekend after the relaxation of almost all legal COVID-19 restrictions, meaning that attendees will have been able to freely attend other venues ahead of (and in the case of Tramlines, during) these events. Therefore transmission could have occurred in a variety of settings outside the event.