Guidance

Events Research Programme Phase III: Development of Research Protocols - Study of attendee behaviours and crowd densities associated with transmission risk at events that simulate full capacity

Updated 8 September 2021

Events Research Programme Phase III: Development of Research Protocols

Study name

Study of attendee behaviours and crowd densities associated with transmission risk at events that simulate full capacity.

Event locations for study

• Wembley Stadium (EURO 2020, England v Croatia) - 29 June
• Wembley Stadium (EURO 2020, Italy v Spain) - 6 July
• Wembley Stadium (EURO 2020, England v Denmark) - 7July
• Wembley Stadium (EURO 2020, Italy v England) - 11July
• Wimbledon (Wimbledon Tennis Championships)– 11July
• Leeds Playhouse (A Little Night Music) – 14 to 17 July
• Piccadilly Theatre, London (A Shot of Laughter) – 17, 20, and 23 July

Principal investigators

Dr Aoife Hunt and Simon Owen, Movement Strategies

Key research question(s)

The primary research question for Phase III is:

What is the impact on risk of transmission of events held indoors or outdoors at or close to full capacity, without social distancing?

This protocol addresses the following related questions:

1. What is the impact of full capacity events in different settings on crowd densities and attendee behaviours that could influence transmission risk?
2. To what extent do attendees adhere to behavioural guidance designed to reduce the transmission of COVID-19 during these events?
3. What are the effects on attendee behaviour of the risk mitigation measures or interventions put in place as part of the events?

Data and analysis generated by this study will also be used to address the research questions posed by the environmental research study:

1. What is the level of environmental risk of airborne transmission (as measured by CO2) in indoor and outdoor spaces, in relation to three mitigations: (a) occupancy, (b) poor ventilation, and (c) distribution of people around venues?
2. What mitigations can be put in place to reduce environmental risk of transmission, in relation to the operation of ventilation, occupancy and distribution of people around the venues?
3. Is the environmental risk of transmission reduced by communicating to venue operators how these mitigations can be implemented to improve air quality?
4. What is the impact of weather on environmental risk of airborne transmission, with specific reference to a) occupancy and distribution of people in outdoor venues which have some indoor spaces, and b) the effectiveness of natural ventilation?

Link to published protocols for Phase I and Phase II

Phase I

Phase II

Study design

The overarching approach adopted during this study will be a continuation of Phase I and Phase II, which can be read in detail in the published work plans.

Data collection and observations will focus on four aspects associated with crowd movement and behaviours:

• occupancy and clustering (number of people, queuing and time spent)
• social distancing (densities and change over time)
• mitigation measures (face coverings, hand hygiene)
• observed behaviours (seating vs standing, active vs passive audience behaviours, eating and drinking behaviours, event organisation and staff behaviours)

A range of quantitative and qualitative sources will be used to extract information on how these aspects vary between settings and across settings over the course of the event. A subset of these will be available at different events. The principal sources are:

• video capture and subsequent manual analysis of footage
• on-site measurements of key areas of interest, supplementing CAD plans, to understand the size and layout of spaces
• on-site observations by the Movement Strategies team at the event, in the form of videos, photos and written observations
• automated video counting software which extracts occupancies and volumes over time
• in-venue wi-fi networks or sensor networks deployed at the event, to provide data on attendee dwell times and itineraries
• ticket-scan data (if provided), to identify profile and distribution of arrivals
• concession/retail transaction data (if provided), to identify profile of demand and typology of purchases
• planning documentation supplied by the event organisers that defines their proposed operation

The data collected and analysed will be framed against the categorisation of venue locations and activity phases summarised below.

Venue location categorisation:

• arrival/departure areas
• dwelling areas (e.g. waiting areas/concourses)
• concessions/bars – standing
• bars/restaurants – seated
• main activity areas (structured)
• main activity areas (unstructured)
• toilets, lifts, stairwells

Event phase categorisation:

• ingress (zone ex)
• ingress (venue)
• event
• circulation (GA)
• circulation (hospitality)
• egress (venue)
• egress (zone ex)

Key outcome measures

The data collection will be closely aligned with other research teams from the outset, to facilitate cross-referencing and triangulation of movement data sets, and observations with other environmental and behavioural aspects.

A key output will be to produce data that can be cross-referenced with environmental data to build a cumulative picture of the risk of attendee exposure to factors associated with disease transmission across the different events. We will engage frequently with the environmental research team throughout the study, informing them of behavioural measures collected at the events in a rapid manner so they can evaluate the potential impact on airborne transmission risk.

The data produced will include the following, for each location type during different event phases:

• time spent by attendees in key locations
• population densities over time in the locations where environmental data is collected
• peak density in all location categories observed
• standing vs seated behaviour in seating areas, over time
• mask-usage where it is required (i.e. proportion of people wearing face coverings correctly, incorrectly, or not at all)
• hand-sanitizer usage (i.e. uptake of hand-sanitizer stations as attendees pass them)
• written summary of qualitative observations (i.e. behaviours observed during the event)

We will also seek to capture and feed back any location-specific advice which can support individual venues in their planning for future events, as well as any general findings applicable to guidance on risk management and venue operations.

NPIs being changed

The study is intended to capture metrics and observations on crowd movement behaviours and studies across each of the settings, and for results to indicate the variation by location and time. As such, the study will collect data that can allow for comparisons in behaviour to be captured with and without any given intervention in place.

The nature of these interventions will either be implemented by the event organisers themselves (in agreement with DCMS) or by recommendation from members of the wider research group. At the time of writing these were not yet finalised.

Engagement with participants and communications

The Movement Strategies study will not involve direct interaction with attendees at the pilot events. Any data collected will be done so in a passive way. The one exception to this would be with the deployment of any wearable technology intended to be used to understand movement within a clearly defined space. In this circumstance, the wearables will be directly handed out to attendees and at that time they will be free to decline to be involved in this aspect of the research.

For all data collection, Movement Strategies is committed to protecting the privacy of the personal data we process. We adhere to best practice across all of our functions and are compliant in accordance with the Data Protection Act 1988, and General Data Protection Regulation 2016/679.

Peer review

This protocol was reviewed and approved by the Events Research Programme Science Board on 23July 2021.

Ethics approval

For the studies undertaken by Movement Strategies no personal details are collected from attendees and the studies do not require human participation. Studies will draw on publicly collected data in line with the privacy agreements and terms and conditions of the event organisers.