Guidance

Events Research Programme: Science Board Statement and conflicts of interest

Updated 8 September 2021

Science Statement

Below is a summary of the evidence likely to be generated by the ERP by the end of Phase I.

1. At current levels of prevalence, very large numbers of attendees and comparable comparison groups would be required in order to estimate epidemiologically meaningful differences in risk of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 across event types and mitigation measures (Science Framework 16.03.21).

2. The initial events within the Events Research Programme (ERP) are currently insufficient in scale, scope and study designs to generate any direct evidence based on transmission data on how opening events might be done to mitigate risks of transmission, by the end of Phase I.

3. The initial events within ERP will, however, provide evidence on the potential effectiveness of i. ventilation systems, assessed using CO2 measurements as a proxy for flow rate per person; and ii. organisation of events and venue design assessed using video footage of attendee behaviour (see 5c below).

4. By pooling data across events, the ERP might provide an indication of risk of transmission by comparing rates of infection in attendees post-event, with rates of infection based on surveillance data in similar populations.

Any such estimate will be extremely tentative given (a) none of the planned studies includes a comparison group and (b) post-event test results may only be available on a small and unrepresentative sample of attendees.

5. The ERP will generate important evidence to inform a further phase of the ERP in which direct evidence of mitigating transmission could be generated including:

• feasibility and acceptability of pre- and post-event testing, including:
  • proportion (and demographic representativeness) of those expressing interest in attending an event who undergo testing and attend;
  • proportion of those attending who return a post-event test kit (and demographic representativeness)

• impact of incentives on post-event test return rates

• feasibility of using video footage to measure attendees’ behaviour at events:
  • movement (to estimate aerobic levels)
  • interpersonal distances and interactions
  • wearing of face coverings

The evidence generated by ERP will be supplemented by results from an ongoing rapid review of evidence, being undertaken by PHE, and by summaries of mass gatherings, prepared by the International Comparators Joint Unit, FCDO.

Conflicts of interest

Professor Dame Theresa Marteau

• None

Professor Tom Rodden

• Professor of Computing at the University of Nottingham

Professor Paul Monks

• Professor of Chemistry at the University of Leicester (1996 – present) for period of BEIS appointment 0.2 FTE salary.
• Fellow of the Royal Society of Chemistry
• Fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society
• Co-I on active research grants from BBSRC and NERC
• Wife is an employee of the University of Leicester
• Member of National Space Centre (Visitor Attraction) Operations Board, Leicester

Dr Shaun Fitzgerald

• Member of SAGE EMG and Transmission Group
• Director of Centre for Climate Repair at Cambridge University
• Shareholder and founder 2006-2016, CEO until June 2018 of Breathing Buildings
• Co-I on AIRBODS grant, and involved with TRACK (University of Cambridge)

Professor John Edmunds

• Partner was an employee at GSK until May 2020
• Unpaid, ad-hoc advice to help reduce the risk of infection of COVID-19 at various sporting and cultural bodies. A number of these have been organised via Department for Digital Culture Media & Sport (DCMS)

Professor Michael Parker

• Professor of Bioethics, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford (employer)
• Chair, Genomics England, Ethics Advisory Committee Non-executive director, Genomics England
• Member of WHO Ethics Working Group on 2019-nCoV (coronavirus) - involved in advising WHO on ethical issues arising in response to and research on COVID-19
• Chair of ‘Our Future Health’ Ethics Advisory Committee
• Director of Ethox Centre and Wellcome Centre for Ethics and Humanities, University of Oxford
• Recipient of several bioethics research grants from Wellcome Trust
• Member of DSHC Moral and Ethical Advisory Group (MEAG), which advises DHSC on ethical questions, with particular emphasis on infectious diseases
• Provided unpaid ethics advice to NHSX on development of COVID-19 mobile contact tracing App

Jennet Woolford

• None

Professor James Calder

• Professor at Dept Bioengineering, Imperial College London
• Founder and shareholder of Fortius Clinic London
• ERPC grant investigating aerosol in singing, wind instruments and exercise

Dr Jenifer Smith

• Senior member of the COVID response team at PHE

Dr Matthew Boulter

• None