Guidance

Science Board Requirements for Phase III of the Events Research Programme

Updated 8 September 2021

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This publication is available at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/events-research-programme-science/science-board-requirements-for-phase-iii-of-the-events-research-programme

Primary research question for Phase III

What is the impact on risk of transmission of events held indoors or outdoors at or close to full capacity, without social distancing?

Phase III provides an opportunity to address the primary research question identified for Phase II[footnote 1] and to meet the objectives of the Events Research Programme[footnote 2], conducted in accord with scientific and other principles detailed in the Science Framework for the Events Research Programme[footnote 3].

Phase III is required to generate more evidence to answer the Phase II question, given the limited scope of included events and the study designs used in Phase II:

  • only three multiday outdoor events were included

  • none were conducted at full capacity (but in some spaces within events 100% capacity occurred)

  • none of the studies included a comparison group

  • post-event PCR test results will likely only be available for a minority of attendees given incentives for test returns were not implemented.

Criteria for events in Phase III

Given the events pre-selected for inclusion in Phase III, we propose the following criteria for their inclusion in the study protocols being prepared for Phase III

  • Identifying information of each person attending an event – including all attendees, not just ticket-purchasers and staff at the event – is recorded in a form that can be linked to NHS T&T

  • Appropriate consent to participate in the ERP – as approved by an ethics committee – has been obtained from all those attending

  • Details of the mitigating measures in place for each event are recorded including Covid status entry requirements such as test-negative results on an LFT, and wearing of face coverings

  • All individual events, and the ERP initiative as a whole, are accompanied by a well-resourced and high profile programme of public engagement to ensure that events are presented as and broadly understood to be components of a research programme and not a return to ‘;business as usual’;

All those attending all events in Phase III that meet the criteria above will be included in a self-controlled case series study in order to estimate the risk of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection associated with attending an event, and whether this varies with the venue and type of event (e.g. outdoor vs indoor) (PI Ian Douglas LSHTM).

Additional priority questions may be superimposed on this study design including those that assess the impact on risk of transmission of different (a) covid status entry requirements, and (b) mitigation measures at indoor events. These are most effectively addressed by comparing groups, allocated by randomisation.

Data Monitoring and Ethics Committee

As with Phases I and II of the Events Research Programme, the mitigations in place for each event require approval by local authorities with advice from Directors of Public Health. Such approval should have taken due consideration of the potential impact on the health of the local community, and the risk to health posed to event attendees.

Phase III of the Events Research Programme is taking place against a background of rising community prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 associated with the emergence of the Delta variant which is more transmissible than pre-existing variants. In addition, the events are taking place at or near full capacity and with fewer mitigations in place to answer the primary research question. The health of the public remains a priority including those attending events, the communities where the events are held and those where attendees live. To achieve this, a Data Monitoring and Ethics Committee, independent of The Science Board has been set up to receive and investigate any safety concerns about events included in the ERP. Details of the DMEC including its membership will be published separately.

  1. Phase II research question – What is the impact on risk of transmission of events held at full capacity, without social distancing, with entry conditional upon pre-event negative lateral flow test (LFT) results? – includes entry conditional upon a pre-event negative test result. Phase III events may require different entry requirements. ↩

  2. The objectives of the Events Research Programme (ERP) are to build evidence on the risks associated with Covid-19 transmission routes, the characteristics of events and surrounding activities, and the extent to which mitigation measures can effectively address these risks.https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-response-spring-2021-reviews-terms-of-reference ↩

  3. Science framework for opening up group events https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/emg-and-dcms-science-framework-for-opening-up-group-events-16-march-2021 ↩

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