Guidance

Science Board Statement on evidence from Phase II

Updated 8 September 2021

The Science Board identified one primary research question for Phase II, building on the evidence generated during Phase I:

What is the impact on risk of transmission of events held at full capacity, without social distancing, with entry conditional upon pre-event negative lateral flow test (LFT) results?

Phase II comprised five events that took place during a 10 day period between 10th and 20th June 2021. Three comprised multi-day outdoor events – cricket, horse racing and a music festival. Two comprised one-off football matches. See Protocol 1 for details.

Summary of the evidence likely to be generated by Phase II events

1. Risk of transmission from attending events

This is estimated from the proportion of attendees receiving a post-event PCR positive test results and a negative pre-event result (Protocol 1).

PCR tests – pre- and post-event – were requested from those attending three multi-day outdoor events covering a study population of between 37,000 and 106,000 people, depending on how many attended over multiple days.

Evidence being collected from these events cannot provide direct evidence of transmission at full capacity given low prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 at the time of study, the scale and design of the study, and an expected low PCR return rate.

The results will be pooled with data collected as part of Phase I which may provide an indication of risk of transmission by comparing rates of infection in attendees post-event, with rates of infection based on surveillance data in similar populations.

Any such estimate will be extremely tentative given (a) none of the events studied were conducted at or near full capacity although in some spaces within events 100% capacity occurred (b) none of the studies included a comparison group and (c) post-event test results are expected to be available on a small and unrepresentative sample of attendees^{[footnote 1]}.

2.Indirect evidence of risk of transmission from attending events

This is estimated by direct observation of crowd behaviour (Protocol 2), measures of CO2 as a proxy for exhaled breath and poor ventilation (Protocol 3) and self-report measures of behaviour (Protocol 4).

The data collected will add to the evidence generated as part of Phase I including

• Quantification of crowding and occupancy time (Protocol 2) linked to measures of CO2 (Protocol 3)

• How crowding, occupancy time and CO2 levels vary with mitigation measures in place at events and with the weather.

• A description of attendee experience of events and factors associated with behaviours associated with higher and lower risk of transmission (Protocol 4).

Protocol 1: Descriptive study of risk-mitigation with SARS-CoV-2 antigen rapid lateral flow testing to reopen live events

Protocol 2: Study of attendee behaviours and crowd densities associated with transmission risk at events that simulate full capacity

Protocol 3: An environmental study on assessing the risk of airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 at live events using CO2 measurement

Protocol 4: Factors associated with self-reported attendee adherence to COVID-19 guidance during the 2021 DCMS Events Research Programme

1. Incentives could not be used in Phase II due to data protection requirements on sharing PCR test data with events; organisers which had not been covered in the consent given by attendees at Phase II events. More reminders to return PCR tests were sent to participants in Phase II than those in Phase I. It is therefore reasonable to expect a higher return rate of both PCR tests from Phase I but, without incentives, this is unlikely to come close to the aspired rate of 80%. ↩