Exploratory sea level projections for the UK to 2300

This project has developed new projections of extreme sea levels to the year 2300.

• From: Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management Research and Development Programme and Environment Agency
• Published: 25 February 2021

• Category: Understanding risks from all sources of flooding
• Topics: Asset monitoring, Asset performance, Big data, Climate change, Coast, Coastal erosion, Decision making with uncertainty, Deterioration, Flood risk assessment, Modelling, Resilient infrastructure, Sea level rise, Understanding physical processes
• Project status: Completed
• Project code: SC150009A
• Date of completion: 29 August 2019

Documents

Exploratory sea level projections for the UK to 2300 - summary (155 KB) PDF

Rhagamcanion archwiliadol o lefel y môr ar gyfer y DU hyd at 2300 - Welsh summary (154 KB) PDF

Exploratory sea level projections for the UK to 2300 - report (3 MB) PDF

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Details

This project has developed new projections of mean and extreme sea levels (the combined height of mean sea level, tide and surge, but not including waves) to the year 2300. This information is critical for long-term planning and the UK’s adaptation response to increasing sea levels.

Flood and coastal erosion risk management authorities, developers and infrastructure operators all need information about the likely impacts of climate change on sea levels to incorporate appropriate levels of protection into their designs. Some assets have expected life spans that go beyond the end of the 21st century. These schemes need information about how extreme sea levels and waves may change over longer timescales.

The Met Office was commissioned to develop new projections of sea level rise for the UK out to the year 2300. The work complements the updated projections of mean and extreme sea level rise to 2100 developed under the UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) project. The project also carried out a literature review of past and future expected impacts of climate change on waves.

This project was completed August 2019.

Published 25 February 2021