Research and analysis

Future of environmental monitoring: policy stress-testing

Published 29 August 2024

Environment Agency 

This case study explores how futures tools were used to investigate how environmental monitoring can be made more resilient to future change. 

What was the challenge? 

The Environment Agency (EA) developed a vision statement for the future of environment monitoring. They produced ‘statements of intent’ (e.g., real-time data monitoring provided by networked sensors), for four requirements needed to implement the vision. The challenge was to explore how resilient these intent statements might be to alternative futures, to help prioritise them. This work used the future scenarios developed in the GO-Science Foresight Wireless 2030 report. 

What was the approach? 

A two-hour policy stress-testing workshop explored the robustness of the intent statements against four scenarios developed for the Wireless 2030 project (Figure 1):

Note: The following 14 sentences are an extensive explanation of the above diagram.

• 2x2 matrix, each cell represents a scenario developed from Wireless 2030 report. X-axis represents level of tech evolution & Y-axis uptake of digital living. Top left cell is scenario B: Unmet Promises; bottom left is scenario A: Slow Progress; bottom right is scenario C: Us & Them; top right is scenario D: Seamless Citizen.
• Scenario A: Slow Progress - Late 4G infrastructure coverage has expanded but the pace of tech adoption has plateaued. This slow-down provides space for companies to meet citizen demand in more conscientious and inclusive ways. Those that opt out of digital living aren’t able to access key digital services.
• Scenario B: Unmet Promises - Late 4G infrastructure coverage has expanded fuelling demand for advanced services and setting high expectations for access and delivery. However, innovation and commercialisation challenges mean the advanced 5G/6G connectivity is out of reach.
• Scenario C: Us and Them - Investment and innovation has been concentrated where the wealth is. Private companies set the agenda. Secure and high-quality connectivity is the privilege of those who have the money and the required digital skills. This leads to an uneven patchwork of demand for new digital services across society.
• Scenario D: Seamless Citizen - Citizens and industry embrace full digitisation and demand facilitates the rollout of advanced network infrastructure throughout the UK. This new quality and ubiquity of connectivity unlocks opportunities for prosperity but is demanding of people’s data, energy and mental health.

The workshop involved 21 participants across relevant government organisations, including EA and Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA). 

At the start of the workshop, participants were introduced to the overall vision and intent statements, as well as the descriptions and illustrative designs of the four scenarios published in the Wireless 2030 report. This was important to remind participants of the context and content of the intent statements and scenarios. 

Participants were then split into four break-out groups for the policy stress-testing exercise. Each group assessed two intent statements against two scenarios. For each statement, the enablers, barriers, success narratives and events that might trigger the need for modification of the statement were identified for the scenario. Participants then considered how likely the statement would be to succeed in that scenario, given the societal and technological context, and whether in the scenario the statement is robust (green), redundant (red), or in need for modification (yellow) (Figure 2). Participants were encouraged to suggest possible interventions that might enhance the statement, for instance, by unblocking barriers or building on opportunities. A virtual whiteboard was used for participants to add ideas on sticky notes to the relevant pre-prepared quadrants. 

Each break-out group was led by a facilitator and supported by a scribe to note down key discussion within the group. Facilitators summarised outputs for each group. This fed into a plenary discussion of the implications for environmental monitoring and key policy actions resulting from the discussion.  

Figure 2: Example template for policy stress-testing exercise. 

Statement of intent	Slow Progress	Unmet Promises	Us & Them	Seamless Citizen
Intent Statement A	Robust	Robust	Modify	Robust
Intent Statement B	Robust	Modify	Redundant	Redundant

What was the impact? 

The policy stress-testing exercise successfully enabled participants to consider the long-term implications of the scenarios for each statement of intent, and investigate ways of making environmental monitoring more resilient to future change. Following this workshop, the intent statements were categorised depending on whether the statements were robust in each scenario and prioritised for implementation or modification. The workshop also provided the opportunity to upskill EA and DEFRA staff in the application of scenarios to explore how different conditions might support or constrain policy development. This work and the Wireless 2030 report are discussed in a GO-Science blog here. 

Written in 2023.