Research and analysis

Future of work in 2035: Horizon Scanning and Scenarios

Published 29 August 2024

Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Australia  

This 2015 study used futures tools to develop a set of megatrends and scenarios to 2035, looking at the future of work in Australia. The report has inspired policy and strategic initiatives to support the development of a digitally-enabled workforce in Australia.  

What was the challenge? 

A technological explosion followed the global financial crash of the late 2000s, impacting life in Australia and elsewhere. In the next decade, tech giants, including Amazon, Uber, and Airbnb, quickly grew in influence, disrupting numerous markets.  

Alongside nascent technologies reshaping established industries and impacting the local labour market in the short and longer term, greater globalisation, a shift to digitalisation, evolving consumer expectations, and social change increased the pressure on the status quo in Australia. 

Further, despite the country’s position as a significant global exporter of mineral and energy resources and products due to abundant raw materials and proximity to Asian markets, it was becoming clear that a business-as-usual attitude, without an eye on the future, would soon be outdated. So how could – and should – Australia soften the landing as it approached the post-mining boom era of its economic development? 

Additionally, although service sectors generated three-quarters of Australia’s economic output at the time, consternation was building around whether or not authorities were doing enough – at local and national levels – to develop the requisite skills and jobs for a prosperous and stable future economy. 

What was the approach? 

In the early 2010s, the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) – an Australian Government agency responsible for scientific research – began developing a generic strategic foresight process based on the delivery of multiple projects in diverse sectors.  

Canberra-headquartered CSIRO, which employs around 5,500 people and has over 50 sites worldwide, used this foresight process for a Future of Work project for the Australian Government Department of Employment from March 2015 for a calendar year.  

The project’s primary aims were establishing a long-term outlook for Australia’s resource and energy sector, determining likely scenarios in other industries by studying working trends, and predicting future jobs and the required skills. The idea was to describe jobs and labour markets in Australia up to 2035, representing a 20-year time frame.  

The project was designed and delivered by Data61, a digital science research agency in Australia, and funded by the Australian Government Department of Employment, the Australian Computer Society, and ANZ Bank. Boston Consulting Group also provided expertise and resource contributions.  

The study, which also drew on analysis from a range of labour-market and economic-forecast data sources, leaned on various foresight methods, including: 

• Horizon scanning 

• External expert consultations 

• Scenario planning 

The approach to the Future of Work project was as follows: 

1. An inception meeting held by Data61 with the CSIRO project team, representatives from the Australian Computer Society and other stakeholders – to understand the scope, potential challenges and opportunities. 

2. A review of relevant academic, industry, government and community sector reports relating to current and future changes in labour markets to identify patterns. 

3. CSIRO shared data gathered on work in multiple sectors and interviews with experts, which helped improve horizon-scanning capabilities and establish megatrends, megashocks, and scenarios. 

4. All Australian jobs were classified and rated using a structured scoring system to identify their vulnerability to replacement with digital technology and the types of task input – for example, manual dexterity, social interaction, creativity, and problem-solving. New types of jobs were suggested. 

5. Crafting and communicating a narrative, using evidence-based scenarios set at a certain point in the future. To revise the scenarios and hone the trends, around 70 stakeholders and experts, some of whom had been involved in the earlier horizon-scanning process, participated in a workshop. 

In January 2016, CSIRO published Tomorrow’s Digitally Enabled Workforce. It was formally launched a month later at the Sydney Opera House by Michaela Cash, then Minister for Employment. The 112-page research paper identified the key drivers and trends shaping tomorrow’s workplaces and the skills and capabilities required for the workforce to be efficient, effective and relevant in a digital world. The results were presented as a set of “megatrends” and scenarios for 2035. Although the report noted potential implications for government, industry and community, it did not make specific policy recommendations. 

What was the impact? 

Initially, the Tomorrow’s Digitally Enabled Workforce report and the Future of Work project gained widespread attention worldwide, generating more than 100 articles in newspapers and coverage on other media, such as radio and television.  

In addition to being foundational for subsequent reports, the study’s findings have inspired policy and strategic initiatives to support the development of a digitally-enabled workforce in Australia. The scenarios and suggestions explored in the study have been used to inform public and private sector organisations in their short- and longer-term planning. The report identified a range of emerging digital technologies that were likely to impact the Australian economy and workforce, including automation, robotics, artificial intelligence, and the Internet of Things.  

The document showed how humans and machines might best work together, rather than the latter replacing the former. It stressed the importance for business leaders to invest in their employees, to upskill and reskill workers to accelerate innovation and maximise the vast potential of nascent technologies.  

Further, the report remains a touchpoint for young and older Australians to help them plan their career path to 2035 and beyond. For example, one of the report’s most significant findings was how vital digital literacy and digital skills are for tomorrow’s workforce. Soft skills – such as creativity, problem-solving, and communication – were shown to be more valued in the coming years. These will be increasingly important given the development of generative artificial intelligence.  

Written by the non-profit company School of International Futures for the Government Office for Science, 2023. This case study looks at work going back to the 2010s, showing the impact up to the time of writing.