Research and analysis

Influenza vs COVID planning assumptions: update, 26 February 2020

Updated paper prepared for the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE).

• From: Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies
• Published: 5 May 2020

Documents

Current understanding of COVID-19 compared with NSRA pandemic influenza planning assumptions - 26 February 2020

PDF, 167 KB, 5 pages

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Details

Updated table comparing the reasonable worst case scenario in an influenza pandemic with the then-current estimate of the reasonable worst case scenario for the COVID-19 outbreak in the UK. Various characteristics are included, such as:

• case fatality ratio
• doubling rate
• duration of infectivity

View the original table.

The paper was discussed at SAGE meeting 11 on 27 February 2020.

This evidence was often complied very rapidly during a fast-moving response and should be viewed in this context. The paper presented here is the best assessment of the evidence at the time of writing, and the conclusions were formed on this basis. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly. Therefore, some of the information in this paper may have been superseded at a later date.

Published 5 May 2020