Labour market participation and intra-UK migration of taxpayers
Analysis of long-term trends in intra-UK migration and the impacts of 2018 to 2019 Scottish Income Tax changes.
Documents
Details
The first report makes use of a new longitudinal dataset to track the movements of individuals and income declared to HMRC across Scotland, Wales and other parts of the UK over time based on administrative tax data. The analysis covers the period from 2009 to 2010 through to 2021 to 2022 and includes breakdowns by age and income band. The results show a gradual increase in net migration of taxpayers to Scotland and Wales from the rest of the UK from 2016 to 2017 onwards, with a larger uptick in 2020 to 2021 and 2021 to 2022.
The second report estimates changes in labour market participation and intra-UK cross-border migration of Scottish taxpayers following the changes introduced to Scottish Income Tax by the Scottish Government for the 2018 to 2019 tax year. The results are broadly in line with the academic literature on behavioural responses to Income Tax changes. While there is no evidence of changes in overall labour market participation, there is some evidence of a fall in net migration to Scotland for individuals earning over the Higher rate threshold, with the size of the fall increasing with income levels.
Contact Details
If you have any other enquiries about the analysis, please contact:
personaltax.statistics@hmrc.gov.uk
Knowledge, Analysis and Intelligence HM Revenue and Customs
100 Parliament Street
LONDON
SW1A 2BQ
Any media enquiries should be directed to the HMRC Press Office contacts listed on the front page of this release.
Media contact: HMRC Press Office, news.desk@hmrc.gov.uk