1. Introduction

This report outlines the methodology, revision policy and data quality information relevant to the ‘Market intelligence: estimates of defence exports from other countries’ report.

Before this year, the intelligence presented in this report were part of the UK Defence Export Official Statistics series. For this year and subsequent years, they are now separate reports due to methodological differences.

The aim of this methodological note is to support users in understanding the strengths and limitations of this research and to minimise the risk of misusing the data presented.

2. Methodology

2.1 Overview

This research collates data and information relating to global defence exports. It draws upon several publicly available international sources to give an indication of other countries’ defence exports. The Department for Business and Trade (DBT) and the UK Defence and Security Exports (UKDSE) collate the sources and produce a research report to give an indication of underlying trends in the global defence market.

The intelligence presented throughout the report are based on contract information from the United States, Australian and Canadian governments, the UK Ministry of Defence, and NATO.

This report also draws upon information from specialist providers of defence market intelligence and other media organisations. More information on the sources used to produce this report can be found in section 4 of this methodology report. The research covers the calendar year from January 2023 to December 2023.

The information in this report used to be presented alongside the UK Defence Export Official Statistics. As the Official Statistics rely on a survey carried out by UKDSE that gives greater coverage of UK exports than is possible for other countries’ exports, and comprises of a different methodology, the results are not comparable.

UK exports are not covered in this report. If you require UK export figures, please use the UK Defence Export Statistics 2023. 

2.2 Identifying a defence export

Exports are judged to be defence-related primarily based on the type of customer. For example, overseas ministries of defence and associated armed services, rather than on the type of products sold.

2.3 Defence orders and contracts versus revenue or earnings 

The data collected and used in this intelligence relates to defence export orders and announced contracts. The value of those orders and contracts represents the total payment agreed for the goods and services provided and is attributed in full to the year in which the order was reported. This is different to the true earnings or revenue generated by those orders, which may be spread over several years.

That spread cannot be accurately determined from the available data. As a result, order values may appear to show considerable variation from year to year, for example, an apparent decline in the years following a large contract. This does not necessarily reflect variation in demand for exports.

The different sources used to compile this market intelligence all use different methods of data collection and therefore cannot be compared with the UKDSE survey used for the UK Defence Exports Official Statistics.

Data in this intelligence is presented in United States dollars (USD), with most data sources reporting orders in USD. When this is not the case, orders are converted to USD in line with the Bank of England’s exchange rates.

2.4 Moving average

A moving average is a way of presenting time series data in which each presented value is an average of a set number of recent underlying values, with the selection of underlying values moving forward with each unit of time.

This method helps to reduce the visual impact of year-to-year variation and give a stronger impression of underlying trends. It has been used in this report because of the apparent variability in defence contract data.

Some charts provided in the report use 5-year moving averages, which means that each value shown represents the average of the values seen in the 5 years up to and including that year, rather than the actual value of contracts in that specific year. The 5-year moving average, therefore, accounts for all data from our 10-year time series.

This is different to where we have stated total values of contracts for countries over the previous 5 years (2019 to 2023). The total values of contracts for countries over the previous 5 years is more variable, so we recommend using the moving averages values over these, as these are just presented for information purposes.

The charts throughout the report are clearly labelled for where a 5-year moving average has been used and where it has not.

3. Data quality

This section provides information on the data quality and data processing methods used to produce this report.

3.1 Accuracy and reliability

As there is no single official record of international defence contracts, we are reliant on publicly available data sources to form the basis of this report. Between data sources, there is variation in how much information is made public by countries, therefore limiting the coverage of our research and impacting any figures presented in the report.

Due to this, the sources used to form this research mean that the figures presented are unlikely to be representative of the entire global defence export market.

Some data sources are likely to give greater prominence to exporting countries that have strong trading relationships with the importing nations, therefore underrepresenting nations whose exports are focused elsewhere.

Therefore, any figures throughout the report should be treated as indicative only, as they do not represent a full picture of global defence exports.

3.2 Data processing

Where data can be downloaded from the source in bulk (for example, AusTender and CanadaBuys), those data are processed in separate files where automatic calculations and checks are carried out.

This includes converting currencies using official Bank of England exchange rates and ensuring that the data relate only to defence exports and to the desired timeframe, as well as automatically converting the data into a consistent layout to reduce the risk of copying errors when the data are combined.

Data from all sources are then combined in a single spreadsheet, which is used as the basis for the charts, tables and headline figures provided in and alongside the publication. Automated lookups and checks are carried out in the combined spreadsheet to ensure that the names of countries are consistent across different sources and that all countries are allocated to the correct regions.

The list of which countries are in each region for the purposes of these statistics are published alongside the other published documents. Manual checks are carried out to identify and remove entries giving information about the same contract from multiple data sources.

3.3 Accessibility and clarity

In line with the government accessibility requirements, the Defence Export Statistics are provided in the HyperText Markup Language (HTML) which follows the AA accessibility standards for GOV.UK publications. In this HTML web page, we provide a narrative and charts. Data for these charts are provided in CSV files on the hosting page for ease of access and use. 

DBT continues to review the accessibility of these statistics prior to each publication, ensuring it adheres to the government accessibility requirements. This release is also reviewed by the DBT Digital team. For further information or additional requests, please refer to the contact details in this report.

4. Sources of defence data

This section provides information on the data sources used in this report and the quality and reliability of the data.

4.1 US Department of Defense contract listings

The United States Department of Defense publishes daily updates on awarded defence contracts related to various branches or agencies of the US military.

US Department of Defense is an official source and is considered likely to be accurate and reliable as a result.

This source provides information on both domestic and international defence contracts, and covers services, support and equipment. Contract information has good coverage across all different US defence agencies and military branches.

The source provides details about each contract, including information related to contract value, contractor, a description of the purchase, date of purchase, length of contract, and the agency which has agreed the contract. 

New information is released daily in an online HTML format.

View the latest US Department of Defense contracts.

4.2 Janes 

Janes is a news website which focuses on global defence and security issues. Published articles cover a broad range of defence and security issues and aren’t solely focused on contracts. However, Janes claims to have access to a wide range of open-source intelligence across global defence markets and is therefore a useful source of information for defence contracts across the globe. 

Data are primarily on a contracts/orders basis and originate from a variety of open sources, including government statements, or other forms of media engagement. Articles have included information such as: company name, date of contract, purchaser, and the contracted equipment.

View the Janes website.

News articles are accessible in online HTML format only.

4.3 DACIS from InfoBase Publishers

Defense & Aerospace Competitive Intelligence Service (DACIS) is a global defence intelligence service specialising in defence, aerospace, and government technology, published by InfoBase. InfoBase provides services for over a million different defence companies (primarily in the US).

Information from DACIS is mainly centred around US government defence contracts, which InfoBase retrieve through their own linkages with US government databases. InfoBase also report on international contracts awarded by Ministries of Defence (MoDs), Government Agencies, and Prime Contractors.

Contracts are published in regular monthly updates. Data can be downloaded according to a specified timeframe and is accessible in Excel format. Publications include detailed contract information including contract codes, date of contract agreement, equipment, and countries equipment is exported to. The contract values provided can sometimes reflect exports to multiple countries.

While it is sometimes possible to estimate the breakdown of the value by destination country by referring to other sources, sometimes this cannot be done and in those cases the destination country is described as “Unknown”.

View the DACIS website.

4.4 BBC Monitoring

BBC Monitoring is a news analysis service provided by the BBC. BBC Monitoring tracks, translates, analyses and summarises global media to help its customers make sense of world events. Part of this service includes providing regular news updates relating to developments in global defence, including the agreement of new contracts or orders.

View the BBC Monitoring website.

4.5 NATO Support and Procurement Agency (NSPA)

Contracts data for NATO are published by the NATO Support and Procurement Agency (NSPA). The NSPA brings together, in a single organisation, acquisition, logistics, medical and infrastructure capabilities including the related procurement functions to answer a variety of customer requirements across all defence domains including air, ground, maritime, cyber and space.

The NSPA’s primary customers are the 31 NATO nations, and they also serve Partnership for Peace (PfP) nations provided they have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Nato Support and Procurement Organisation (NSPO).

Data are published on a quarterly basis and cover the previous quarter. NATO datasets are often punctual and are made available for download at the end of each quarter. Datasets contain information on contractor’s name, country code, purchase order number, and a description of the purchase. The data can be downloaded in PDF format.

View the latest NSPA contracts.

4.6 CanadaBuys

CanadaBuys is the authoritative source of information about contracts awarded by Public Works and Government Services Canada, which are published online on behalf of Canadian federal departments and agencies. As an official government source, we consider it to be highly reliable and accurate.

CanadaBuys provides historical data dating back to the 2009 to 2010 financial year.

The historical contracts datasets are accessible and easily downloadable in CSV format, with a data dictionary published alongside the data.

View the CanadaBuys contract history.

4.7 AusTender

AusTender is the Australian government’s procurement information system, which provides centralised publication of Australian government business opportunities, annual procurement plans and contracts awarded where the value is over $10,000 Australian dollars (AUD).

AusTender is managed by the Australian Department of Finance. As a government source we consider it to be highly reliable and accurate. AusTender updates and amends published contract data on a quarterly basis, with currently available data dating back to the 2013 to 2014 financial year.

View AusTender contract information.

4.8 Supplementary data sources

Where there are instances of uncertainty around the specifics of a contract’s content, targeted research of available media will be undertaken to provide additional clarification on the agreement of the contract or other details such as its total value or date of implementation.

It is not always possible to be definite about the signing of a contract. In uncertain cases, judgements and estimations may be made based on collateral reporting. When the value of a contract is not published, an estimate of its value is made based on historical sales and other factors.

The total value of a contract published at the time of announcement is counted and does not account for when actual delivers are made. The value is not spread over the length of the contract.

Where there is a contract with several supplying nations but no indication of workshare, the value is equally divided between the suppliers. Likewise, where there is an export to several nations and no percentage split, the figure is divided equally.

5. Alternative defence export data sources

The following data sources are not used by this publication and are not comparable with it. However, they may provide additional information and context for users.

5.1 Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)

SIPRI is a major provider of defence export delivery data. It only reports on global arms deliveries, and not new orders/contracts that we require for our business purposes.

5.2 Congressional Research Service (CRS)

Another provider of defence export (arms transfer) data is the United States Congressional Research Service. The CRS, a component of the Library of Congress, conducts research and analysis for Congress on a broad range of national policy issues.

It tracks and reports on agreement and delivery data for US G2G foreign military sales (FMS) transactions, in addition to global arms transfer deliveries. Most reports can be retrieved from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) website.