Policy paper

UK Resilience Forum fourth meeting: 19 July 2023

Updated 13 February 2024

This was published under the 2019 to 2022 Johnson Conservative government

Meeting held in-person - Wednesday 19 July 2023

Representatives from the following organisations were in attendance:

• British Red Cross (BRC)
• Cabinet Office
• Citizens Advice
• Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities
• Energy Networks Association
• Government Office for Science
• Maritime and Coastguard Agency
• Ministry of Defence
• National Emergencies Trust
• National Fire Chiefs Council
• National Police Chiefs Council
• Northern Ireland Executive
• Scottish Government
• SOLACE
• VCSEP
• Water Industry Platinum Group (WIPG)
• Welsh Government

Invited organisations unable to attend:

• Electronic Communications – Resilience & Response Group (EC-RRG)

The Deputy Prime Minister, The Rt. Hon. Oliver Dowden CBE MP welcomed attendees to the fourth meeting of the UK Resilience Forum (UKRF). He highlighted that the Forum is a valuable asset for obtaining expert insight from organisations across the resilience landscape to inform policy-making across-Government.

The Director of the Cabinet Office Briefing Rooms (COBR) Unit presented a Risk Forward Look of significant risks which could occur over the next six months. The potential risks included severe weather and flooding; the compound impacts of seasonal illnesses and public sector strikes on the healthcare system; increased prevalence of outbreaks of animal disease such as avian influenza; protest action; and general disruption related to widespread industrial action across public services. It was noted that the weather outlook was more benign than previously anticipated, but the risk of wildfires remained. There was increasingly less of a direct impact from COVID-19 and the Russia/Ukraine conflict owing to a better understanding of the ramifications of the crises, for example on supply chains. The international landscape more broadly remained challenging in terms of a possible sudden materialisation of risk.

Forum members were invited to share their views on the risks facing the UK. In discussion the following points were made:

• Members commented that they had been horizon scanning within their organisational contexts and thinking seasonally about risks.
• Members recognised the risk profile described, including the effects of avian influenza, protests, industrial action and the cumulative impacts on the health sector; sharing the assessment that the risks to water supplies and of wildfires was improving.

The Head of Resilience in the Cabinet Office summarised recent policy developments in respect to the UK Government Resilience Framework and strengthening UK resilience, including the introduction of a new Ministerial sub-committee of the National Security Council to oversee resilience; the revised National Security Risk Assessment and planning assumptions; the National Exercising Programme and its recent major national exercise; and the launch of the Emergency Alerts system in April 2023. The Head of Resilience then highlighted the immediate next stage deliverables, including the upcoming publication of the digitised National Risk Register to ensure greater transparency around risk; the Lead Government Departments List to set out different Departmental responsibilities in leadership of the risk cycle; and the announcement of pilots for the ‘Stronger Local Resilience Forum’ Programme. In addition, a number of related strategies including the Biosecurity Strategy, Third National Adaptation Programme and National Cyber Strategy had been published underlining the UK Government’s commitment to resilience.

The Head of Resilience then presented on the theme of Winter Energy Resilience in the context of the National Grid’s most recent published report. Broadly, the situation was positive and a programme of work to strengthen resilience against potential disruptions was in place. The Head of Resilience invited attendees to share what their organisations were doing to ensure resilience for that winter and, in particular, to support vulnerable people. 

The Deputy Prime Minister confirmed that there was a reasonable level of confidence in power scenarios, but emphasised the need for continued preparations and the strong exercising taking place between partners.

In discussion, the following points were made:

• Work had been progressing across sectors on winter preparedness, including the development of communications plans and campaigns to improve the preparedness of citizens across the nation.
• The cumulative effect of cascading risks increased the number of those less resilient to further shocks. Improvements have been made to data sharing between organisations to support vulnerable people. Attendees acknowledged the complexities of this (for example with regards to GDPR) and shared initiatives underway to further strengthen the timely sharing of information to support those most vulnerable.
• There was general support for the ‘Stronger Local Resilience Forum’ programme and interest in further work on local assurance.
• The UK Government Resilience Framework had ushered a genuine transformation in how Governments and organisations had thought about resilience. The people-centred approach of the Framework was welcomed and a call was made for all relevant stakeholders to be involved in the ongoing design of policy to enable policy-making that would meet the needs of the whole of society.

The Deputy Prime Minister ended the meeting by thanking members for their attendance, noting their valuable contributions, and affirmed the Government’s commitment to continued engagement with stakeholders on resilience matters. It was agreed that cyber security and resilience would be on the next agenda in approximately 6 months’ time.