Policy paper

Meeting our future water needs: a national framework for water resources – accessible summary

Published 16 March 2020

Applies to England

The national framework explores England’s long term water needs for:

• public water supplies
• agriculture
• the power and industry sectors
• environmental protection

The organisations responsible for England’s water supplies have worked together to understand the water needs for England from 2025 to 2050 and beyond. This involved looking at each region and across all sectors.

The national framework focuses on England. However, Welsh Government and Natural Resources Wales (NRW) have been involved in the work and are members of the senior steering group.

The framework contributes to 2 of the pledges in the government’s 25 year environment plan. These are to:

• leave the environment in a better state than we found it
• improve resilience to drought and minimise interruptions to water supplies

Our findings build on these reports:

• Water resources long term planning framework, Water UK (2016)
• Preparing for a drier future, England’s water infrastructure needs, National Infrastructure Commission (2018)

The national framework report marks a move to strategic regional planning. It sets out the principles, expectations and challenges for 5 regional groups (made up of the 17 English water companies and other water users). These have been developed and agreed by the regional groups, other major water abstractors, government, regulators and stakeholders. This joined up approach is needed to:

• address the scale of challenges we face
• realise opportunities from water resources planning

We need regional planning because the statutory water company water resource management plans (WRMPs) alone are unlikely to provide the right strategic solutions for the whole nation. They address how the company will develop water resources for its customers’ needs only. The national framework puts aside water company boundaries and considers the needs of the whole region and of other water users. It looks at how these needs fit with the national water picture and how we can provide the resilience and environmental protection needed.

Regional groups

Regional groups bring together the water companies that operate in each of England’s regions and other major water users. Here are the 5 regional groups and the water companies that sit in them:

• Water Resources North – Northumbrian Water, Hartlepool (Anglian) Water, Yorkshire Water
• Water Resources West – Severn Trent Water, United Utilities, South Staffordshire Water, Dŵr Cymru (Welsh Water)
• Water Resources East – Anglian Water, Essex and Suffolk Water, Cambridge Water, Severn Trent Water, Affinity Water
• Water Resources South East – Affinity Water, Portsmouth Water, South East Water, Southern Water, SES Water, Thames Water
• West Country Water Resources – Bristol Water, Wessex Water, South West Water

Regional planning

The regional groups will each produce one plan. It must consider how the region will be resilient to a range of uncertainties and future scenarios. It must identify a set of options that provide the best value to customers, society and the environment rather than simply the least cost. Together the 5 plans must meet the national need.

The plans need to address the following.

Increasing resilience to drought

So that restrictions such as rota cuts and standpipes will be needed no more than once every 500 years on average by the 2030s.

Greater environmental improvement

Consider changes to water abstractions, beyond those the water companies have already identified in their WRMPs. These changes will achieve a sustainable abstraction regime across all sectors.

Reducing long term water usage

Adopt a planning assumption of achieving on average, 110 litres of water use per person per day by 2050, while also reducing non-household demand.

Reducing leakage

Meet industry’s target to reduce leakage by 50% by 2050.

Reducing the use of drought permits and orders

Understand the environmental risk of each drought measure (such as permits and orders) and use them less frequently, particularly at sensitive water sources or habitats.

Increasing supplies

Explore options to develop new supplies such as:

• reservoirs
• water reuse schemes and desalination plants
• shared supplies with other sectors
• catchment-based work to improve water management

Government, regulators and regional groups share the goal of improving the environment. This means addressing unsustainable water abstractions.

Our modelling assumes that around 700 million litres of water per day (Ml/d) comes from unsustainable abstractions and that these will need replacing by other means between 2025 and 2050.

This includes all the abstraction changes already in water company WRMPs, and many others which will be investigated over the coming years. These include changes to turn around the decline of our unique and highly valued chalk streams.

We recognise that the volume of water associated with unsustainable abstractions in the current water company WRMPs represents significant change. However, the longer term change may need to be higher still.

We have modelled a range of future scenarios for climate change and levels of environmental protection. This has shown that by 2050 we may need to reduce abstraction by between 1,200 Ml/d and 2,200 Ml/d. We know that more detailed investigations will be necessary to understand the complex local relationships between abstraction and the environment and refine these estimates.

The framework indicates that more needs to be done than is currently being planned for. And we know we need to allow time to understand and plan for alternatives.

We need a shared environmental destination with agreed steps to take us there. These will cover the short, medium and long term changes needed. To achieve this we will work with the regional groups, Natural England, NRW and environmental interest groups and organisations.

Developing alternative water supplies takes time and will change how water needs to be managed. This cannot be achieved through piecemeal changes in successive, individual water company WRMPs. The Regulators Alliance for Progressing Infrastructure Development (RAPID) has been established to support delivery of the strategic schemes needed.

Understanding England’s future water needs at 2050

Every day:

• water companies provide around 14,000 million litres of water for public water supply
• other sectors, such as industry, power and farming use around 1,000 million litres of water – this varies across the seasons and regions

The 1,000 Ml/d figure excludes public water supply, hydropower and aquaculture. The abstraction volumes are adjusted for consumptiveness – this represents the proportion of water taken from the environment that is not put back close to where it is taken.

If no action is taken between 2025 and 2050 around 3,435 million extra litres of water per day will be needed for public water supply. This includes:

• 1,150 Ml/d to make water supplies more resilient to drought
• 1,040 Ml/d to supply the growing population
• 720 Ml/d to replace unsustainable abstractions and improve the environment
• 400 Ml/d to address the impact of climate change on water availability – water companies have also allowed for 640 Ml/d in their plans to 2025 which is before the start date for this analysis

The south east requires around 50% of the national public water supply need.

England’s future water needs at 2050 by region

For public water supply the additional water need between 2025 and 2050 estimate is based on:

• increasing resilience to drought to a 1 in 500 year event
• high population growth
• high environmental improvement – the most ambitious abstraction reductions identified in water company WRMPs

How much water other sectors will use is based on our best estimate of demands for 2050. The figures provided are for the main sectors in the region.

Water Resources West

The estimated additional public water supply needs between 2025 and 2050 are 639 Ml/d:

• 237 Ml/d for population change
• 167 Ml/d for drought resilience
• 167 Ml/d for environmental improvement
• 68 Ml/d for climate change

The estimated total demand from other users is 283 Ml/d:

• 59% for industry – chemicals, paper and pulp
• 27% for agriculture – spray irrigation
• 12% for power generation

West Country Water Resources

The estimated additional public water supply needs between 2025 and 2050 are 227 Ml/d:

• 86 Ml/d for population change
• 71 Ml/d for drought resilience
• 47 Ml/d for environmental improvement
• 11 Ml/d for climate change
• 12 Ml/d for other needs

The estimated total demand from other users is 193 Ml/d:

• 63% for industry – manufacturing mineral products
• 23% for agriculture – livestock and spray irrigation

Water Resources North

The estimated additional public water supply needs between 2025 and 2050 are 233 Ml/d:

• 132 Ml/d for climate change
• 60 Ml/d for population change
• 41 Ml/d for drought resilience

The estimated total demand from other users is 192 Ml/d:

• 38% for power generation
• 33% for industry – extracting minerals and materials, navigation, food and drink, paper and pulp
• 23% for agriculture – spray irrigation

Water Resources East

The estimated additional public water supply needs between 2025 and 2050 are 570 Ml/d:

• 226 Ml/d for drought resilience
• 193 Ml/d for population change
• 76 Ml/d for climate change
• 75 Ml/d for environmental improvement

The estimated total demand from other users is 444 Ml/d:

• 64% for agriculture – spray irrigation
• 17% for power generation
• 14% for industry – food and drink, paper and pulp

Water Resources South East

The estimated additional public water supply needs between 2025 and 2050 are 1765 Ml/d:

• 640 Ml/d for drought resilience
• 459 Ml/d for population change
• 431Ml/d for environmental improvement
• 111 Ml/d for climate change
• 124 Ml/d for other needs

The estimated total demand from other users is 175 Ml/d:

• 30% for agriculture – spray irrigation
• 32% for industry – paper and pulp, golf courses
• 20% for power generation

Understanding regional needs

Having identified the main pressures on public water supplies in each region the national framework explores how much of the need could be met by:

• reducing demand for water
• new infrastructure, such as reservoirs, desalination plants and water transfers

The analysis is based on achieving:

• a higher level of drought resilience – 1 in 500 years
• greater environmental protection than included in current water company WRMPs

The aim of the work is to set the context of a much bigger water resources picture for each group. The groups will explore the options available to them in detail and develop a deeper understanding of all the needs of their regions.

The latest water company WRMPs have set out their targets for reducing household water use and leakage. We recognise the uncertainty around whether these targets can be met or even exceeded. They depend on many factors such as customer behaviour, technology and weather conditions.

To help understand future options we have considered 3 levels of water use by 2050. Here are the 3 levels.

High demand

Under this scenario we have assumed:

• 127 litres of water used per person per day
• no change to non-household consumption
• 30% leakage reduction

Central demand

Under this scenario we have assumed:

• 119 litres of water used per person per day
• no change to non-household consumption
• 50% leakage reduction

Low demand

Under this scenario we have assumed:

• 110 litres of water used per person per day
• 4% reduction in non-household consumption
• 50% leakage reduction

We modelled how much extra water could be provided by all the options selected in the individual water companies’ most recent WRMPs and through specific drought measures. For the drought measures each scenario assumes:

• those measures with higher environmental risks cannot be used and 70% of those with a lower risk can
• achieving 2% savings through temporary use bans during drought

The following graph shows 2 things. It shows how much additional water we estimate each region will need by 2050. It also shows how those needs could be met by:

• drought measures
• increased supply and transfers selected in the most recent WRMPs
• leakage reduction
• water efficiency in high, central and low demand scenarios

We have also estimated water need based on when a surplus is available and when it is not.

The future water needs are shown including and excluding any surplus water that may be available in the region. This could be water that’s over and above the actual abstraction but within the licence limits or water that’s held in reservoirs and not needed locally. The higher need estimate is where the surplus cannot be used. The lower need estimate is where it can be used. Having a surplus is not an automatic fix to meeting water need. It often cannot be used because of where it’s located or because using it may damage the environment.

Estimate of future water needs in each region and the contribution different options can make across the high, central and low demand scenarios

Each region faces pressures on water resources. The following sets out the relationship between the main pressures each face and the potential options available to them.

Water Resources North

The North has a significant surplus of water. If it could be made available, it could help offset the future water resource and environmental challenges we face and potentially be made available to other regions.

The options identified in the relevant water company WRMPs are enough to meet the higher need estimate. However, if water users in the region reduced how much water they use, even more water could be available to transfer elsewhere.

Water Resources West

The West will face pressures in the future. However, it has a significant surplus, the potential to reduce demand further and options to supply more water.

The options identified in the water company WRMPs are enough to meet the higher need estimate. If greater reductions in water use can be achieved or further options identified, there is potential to transfer more water to other regions.

Water Resources East

The East faces significant pressure and has little surplus water available. Our modelling shows that the amount of water needed is equivalent to all the new supply options selected in the water company WRMPs.

More ambitious reductions in water use and potentially additional capacity from water supply infrastructure is necessary to meet the higher need estimate.

Water Resources East’s focus will be on:

• reducing the demand for water by all users
• increasing the amount of water available through new water resource options and transfers

Exploring the potential for schemes that benefit other water users is also a priority given the high level of demand from other sectors, particularly agriculture.

Water Resources South East

The South East faces the greatest pressures on public water supplies. If surplus water can be made available, the region will still need to develop options to supply more water. This will need to be equivalent to all the new water resource options and transfers selected in the water company WRMPs, as well as achieving ambitious efficiency reductions.

If it cannot access the surplus water, then demand in the region will need to be reduced further or more resources developed. This regional group needs to track progress on demand management particularly closely because if savings are less than expected, it could develop a large shortfall. This may reduce resilience, limit progress on environmental improvements or lead to more frequent use of drought measures.

West Country Water Resources

The West Country sees relatively modest pressures. However, these are more significant when viewed as a proportion of the water supplied in the region. It has a significant surplus in parts of the region and if this can be used to meet the pressures faced by the region, the options in the company WRMPs will deliver the extra water needed.

This regional group’s priority is to make the region more efficient by achieving ambitious reductions in water use and leakage. It also needs to explore the potential to transfer water to other regions, in particular to the neighbouring South East.

Progressing strategic options

Work to explore a number of strategic options has begun, including infrastructure and transfers already identified in the latest water company WRMPs.

Up to £469 million of funding is available between 2020 and 2025 to progress this work which will be supported by RAPID.

Assessing regional plans

In summary a regional plan must include:

• an initial resource position – a resource assessment which looks at future scenarios and explores the main challenges and sensitivities
• a statement of ambition, including the regional policies and principles
• a list of the options considered – to meet the regional need and contribution to the national need
• the preferred plan – identifying the best value options to meet all future water needs across multiple sectors and users

Regional planning needs to be flexible. However, all the plans must be compatible even though the different regions face different pressures. Together they must make up the national water resources picture we need. Here are what the plans must, should and could include.

Must

The plans must:

• take account of the national framework and set out the region’s potential contribution to the national need
• be reflected in the water company WRMPs
• forecast supply and demand over at least 25 years and set out solutions to any deficits
• be a single strategic plan with a preferred solution – which can be adapted
• take a multi-sector approach
• look beyond regional boundaries and use technical approaches compatible with other regions
• include enhanced environmental improvements and demand management
• take a catchment-based approach
• consider wider resilience benefits, including reducing flood risk when developing options
• be open to market mechanisms
• take into account growth ambition
• comply with Strategic Environmental Assessment and Habitats Regulations Assessment legislation

Should

The plans should:

• engage widely with interested groups
• set out how the region will respond to drought and agree common scenarios for drought actions
• join up with drainage and wastewater management plans
• seek to improve resilience to events other than drought, particularly floods
• look ahead 50 years or more

Could

The plans could contain all the detailed information required for:

• water company WRMPs
• drought plans

Governance and decision making

We have set up 3 groups to:

• support development of the national framework
• ensure the co-ordinated regional plans are completed

Senior steering group

The members of this group are 40 representatives from:

• government
• regulators
• water companies
• water using sectors
• universities and environmental non-government organisations

Its role is to provide a strategic steer on key decisions and oversee ongoing work.

Regional coordination group

The members of this group are the:

• regional groups
• government
• regulators

Its role is to progress completion of the plans, encourage ambition and make sure the plans are compatible.

Modelling advisory group

The members of this group are technical experts from the regional groups.

Its role is to make sure the technical methods are aligned so that we can explore cross-regional options.

Next steps

The national framework sets the direction and expectations for regional groups. Following publication of the national framework we have set this timeline for regional groups:

• March 2020 – set out their initial statement of regional water needs
• July 2020 – publish the approach they will take to developing their plans
• February 2021 – update their statement of regional water needs
• August 2021 – share their draft plans to ensure they are aligned
• January 2022 – hold an informal consultation on draft regional plans
• August 2022 – publish their final draft plans
• September 2023 – publish their final regional plans

Future priorities

Our future priorities include:

1. Delivering long term environmental improvements by achieving a more sustainable abstraction regime; developing a natural capital valuation methodology to inform future investment decisions and reduce the use of drought measures in sensitive areas.

2. Developing our modelling to continue to build our understanding of future water needs.

3. Supporting reductions in water demand by introducing a new monitoring framework to track progress on demand reduction. And establishing a sub-group to recommend how daily water use targets can be achieved, such as through policy changes and public campaigns.

4. Working with RAPID to explore the strategic infrastructure schemes already identified and support the development of any other options that may be needed.

5. Enabling collaboration by removing barriers that currently prevent water companies and others working together. We will make our data on future water needs widely available so that more stakeholders can work with the regional groups.

We believe regional planning will identify the right strategic solutions for the future. We will monitor progress closely and will consider alternative regulatory approaches if regional plans do not deliver what is expected of them.