Transparency data

Chief Regulator's report December 2021

Updated 9 June 2022

Applies to England

Date

8 December 2021

Title

Chief Regulator’s report (Open Paper)

Report by

Dr Jo Saxton, Chief Regulator

Paper for information and discussion

Recommendations

1. 1. The Board is asked to note the matters reported.
2. 2. The Board is asked to confirm that it is content for future consideration of the proposed assessment arrangements for revised GCSE modern foreign languages (French, German and Spanish) to be carried out via electronic business (see paragraphs 23-27).

Overview

1. 3. The autumn GCSE, AS and A level exam series will finish on 3 December. At the time of writing, there have been no significant delivery issues.
2. 4. For summer 2022, adaptations and contingency arrangements have been confirmed for GCSEs, AS and A levels. The exam boards’ advance information is ready to release.
3. 5. In VTQ, we have started conducting evaluative reviews with awarding organisations and to gather their high-level feedback on the VTQ Contingency Regulatory Framework (VCRF) and associated guidance issued by Ofqual.
4. 6. VTQ set out further messages on contingency arrangements when announcements were made on GQ awarding for 2022.
5. 7. Evaluation of 2021 awarding remains on track.
6. 8. The Spending Review settlement Ofqual has received is positive.

General Qualifications

GCSEs, AS and A levels in 2021/22

1. 9. The autumn exam series has been safely and fairly delivered. Entry numbers for the autumn series were low (and lower than in autumn 2020).
2. 10. There were 8,800 entries for A level subjects – 44% of the total entries in the autumn 2020 series (20,100).
3. 11. There were 114,040 entries for GCSE English language and mathematics – a decrease of 13% compared to 2020 (131,300).
4. 12. There were 5,700 entries for other GCSE subjects – 31% of the total entries in autumn 2020 (18,450).
5. 13. We are continuing to monitor delivery – there have been no significant delivery issues. A level results will be issued to students on 16 December; GCSE results will be issued in the new year.
6. 14. We have announced that 2022 will be a transition year, to reflect the pandemic recovery period. We will aim, therefore, for grade standards to reflect a midway point between 2021 and 2019.
7. 15. Following joint consultations with the Department for Education (DfE), Ofqual has published guidance for centres on how they should gather evidence of student performance in case exams are cancelled and Teacher Assessed Grades (TAGs) must again be used. The guidance reflected consultation feedback and feedback from a number of teacher and school leader associations. It encourages centres not to over-assess students and, as far as possible, to use planned formative assessments to generate evidence. The exam boards have published information to support centres, including frequently asked questions.
8. 16. The exam boards are also planning to publish information before the end of term to help teachers and students know what to expect when the advance information is published. They will explain that the information is intended to support students’ revision. Ofqual has undertaken an exercise to review the framework for advance information tailored across 400 different specifications, and teams have engaged with proxy examples, given it is not possible for us to see actual papers pre-sitting.

GCSE modern foreign languages

1. 17. The revised DfE subject content for GCSE modern foreign languages qualifications (French, German and Spanish) has been approved in principle by the Schools Minister, following a public consultation which resulted in a number of amendments to the proposals. Target first teach date has now moved to September 2024.
2. 18. Following the Ofqual consultation on the proposed assessment objectives and assessment approach in relation to tiering and the use of non-exam assessment (NEA), we had planned to bring to the Board the consultation analysis report and recommendations. However, a joint statement published by the National Association of Language Advisors and signed by other subject associations, teacher representative organisations and the exam boards has been published, calling for a pause to the development work to allow further consideration of the proposed approach to teaching of languages reflected in the revised subject content.
3. 19. DfE will need to confirm whether it wishes to make any further amendments to the subject content before we can be confident that our proposed assessment arrangements are suitable for the final content requirements and for all students.
4. 20. In order that we can progress this work, we ask the Board to confirm that it is content for future consideration of the proposed assessment arrangements for revised GCSE MFL (French, German and Spanish) to be carried out via electronic business.
5. 21. The proposed content revision has a critical role to play in improving the fairness of MFL GCSEs, which do not have consistent requisite vocabulary requirements at present and, accordingly, favour those with greater cultural literacy.

Stakeholder engagement

1. 23. We are working with existing and new stakeholders to see how we can strengthen our student engagement. This includes opportunities to use stakeholders’ existing student groups to seek views and to help us communicate our messages to students as widely as possible.

Vocational and Technical Qualifications

1. 23. Evaluative reviews with awarding organisations have begun. The aim of these is to gather high-level feedback on the VTQ Contingency Regulatory Framework (VCRF) and associated guidance issued by Ofqual.
2. 24. Further messages on contingency arrangements were set out on 30 September when announcements were also made on GQ awarding for 2022. This builds on the updated VCRF which was published on 6 August.
3. 25. The timing of results days for 2022 was announced on 30 September.

T Levels

1. 26. Our work in relation to T Levels is progressing to plan. We have made decisions to accredit all six of the Technical Qualifications in Wave 3.
2. 27. In parallel, recognition decisions were made for six Wave 4 T Levels as planned.

Higher Technical Qualifications (HTQs)

1. 28. Fifteen qualifications for review were received on 17 September and we provided advice to the Institute on them all by 2 November as planned.
2. 29. The deadline for the next cycle of awarding organisation submissions has been confirmed as 29 July 2022, covering a much wider range of sectors. We anticipate providing our technical feedback on this cycle of awarding organisation submissions in November/December 2022.

Strengthening qualifications in KS4 Performance Tables

1. 30. Our final views regarding awarding organisation submissions for the 2024 KS4 performance tables have been provided to the DfE. They will announce their decisions in due course.

Digital Functional Skills Qualifications

1. 31. DfE published its subject content for these qualifications on 29 October. We launched our technical consultation setting out our proposed regulations in November.

Level 3 Qualifications Review

1. 32. The new team of Ministers has now had time to consider the Level 3 Qualifications Review proposals. Ministers have made the decision to put the whole programme back by a year, to allow more time for T Levels to bed in before other qualifications are defunded. We will continue to progress work on our policy proposals and consultation, so that the time gained can be given to awarding organisations and centres to prepare for the changes ahead.

Level 2 Qualifications Review

1. 33. We expect DfE to launch its consultation on the Level 2 and below Qualifications Review before Christmas.

Apprenticeship End Point Assessments

1. 34. The EQA Transition Programme continues at pace. The ESFA has announced that they are extending the deadline for EPAOs so that they all have the opportunity to submit twice to become Ofqual recognised before being removed from the ESFA’s Register. Reapplications will be staggered, with the next round submitted on 7 January 2022 at the latest. The ESFA will start to remove any organisation that has had two negative decisions, or has failed to reapply to these timelines, from 16 December onwards. Phase 1 should end by May 2022, with all EPAOs having had (at least) 2 submissions decided upon. At this point all 315 Apprenticeship Standards in Phase 1 will have transitioned to Ofqual.
2. 35. We continue to offer support and guidance to those EPAOs whose applications have been rejected and where they are working on resubmissions.
3. 36. The timelines for Phase 2 have also been adjusted. EPAOs now need to have submitted a first application by 14 May 2022 (back from 14 April) and will complete by 31 December 2022 (back from September). There are 39 new EPAOs on Phase 2, and 6 have already applied.

Monitoring, Enforcement & Incident Management

1. 37. The 2021 Statement of Compliance window was launched as planned.
2. 38. Through our work with Regulatory Compliance, we have identified strengths and weaknesses in the way in which awarding organisations manage their systems and resources to manage data collections, as well as opportunities for Ofqual to shape the way in which we gather data and engage with awarding organisations in future. We will continue to develop our VTQ Data Strategy as a next step to address these issues.

Stakeholder engagement

1. 39. There is extensive stakeholder engagement activity underway for all the aforementioned programmes, including a substantial programme of engagement with prospective EPAOs to support EQA transition, and with stakeholders more broadly to support VTQ awarding in 2022. We have improved the operations of engagement through the further enhancements to the Ofqual Portal and the deployment of CRM which is now well utilised and enabling us to better track and manage our engagement activity.
2. 40. We have made the decision to not progress with our AO Conference as planned. Instead, we have established a series of ‘knowledge base’ webinars which supplement established Induction programmes and ensure awarding organisations have the opportunity for a refresh and update on core aspects of our regulation.

Standards and Research

1. 41. The programme to evaluate 2021 awarding remains on track.
2. 42. Our research (survey and interviews) into the process through which Teacher Assessed Grades were determined is on track. Early drafts informed discussions about contingency arrangements for 2022.
3. 43. The public sentiment survey is now complete and the Board will receive a separate briefing on the survey in the 8 December meeting.
4. 44. Both perceptions surveys (GQ and VTQ) are being run this year, rather than moving to the previously-agreed position of running only one each year, alternating between GQ and VTQ.
5. 45. We have agreed arrangements for awarding in the autumn 2021 series, and have published our regulatory requirements. We have monitored autumn awarding, including observing some awarding meetings. We have published provisional entry data for the autumn series, and have undertaken some more detailed analyses of the entries to provide additional context for awarding.
6. 46. Our report ‘How CASLO qualifications work’, which describes the design principles underpinning a broad family of vocational and technical qualifications (including former QCF qualifications, and NVQs), was discussed at the Federation of Awarding Bodies Annual Conference in November, as well as at the Standards Advisory Group (SAG). Taking on board feedback, the report should be ready for publication in January.
7. 47. A range of our research was presented at Cambridge Assessment’s remote seminar in September, and a further seven papers at the international Association of Educational Assessment (AEA) conference in November.
8. 48. Meetings of SAG and the Research Advisory Group (RAG) took place in November. A number of research projects and standards-related issues were discussed at these meetings, including the future of the National Reference Test.
9. 49. A number of regular data collections regarding VTQs have been set up to give us a greater understanding of this sector. Work to understand what else needs to be done to increase understanding of the VTQs we regulate is currently ongoing. This includes engagement activity with awarding organisations to ensure the quality of the data submitted and with internal stakeholders to identify other areas that need to be explored.
10. 50. Four statistical releases were published in November.
11. 51. The work on the GRADE data-sharing project has now been disseminated. We have launched a campaign to raise awareness of the project, with the publication of a privacy notice for data subjects and engagement with key stakeholders, as well as to increase understanding of the data among external researchers, with the publication of data specifications and the organisation of a data-mining event based on dummy data. Clear governance arrangements are in place to approve research proposals by external researchers that are starting to be submitted.
12. 52. The Strategy, Risk and Research (SRR) directorate has been reformed and will be home to a new regulatory research team.

National Reference Test (NRT)

1. 53. Results of the 2021 NRT are due to be published later this month.

Strategy and Markets

1. 54. Discussions with DfE colleagues regarding potential opportunities for digitisation and the use of technology in high-stakes assessments taken by 16-19 year olds in schools and colleges have begun.
2. 55. Plans to assess the financial health of the awarding organisation market through the Statement of Compliance are being finalised in light of the challenging economic environment. We will use this to inform future approaches to monitoring financial viability.
3. 56. Work is progressing to plan on the third version of Ofqual’s Qualification Price Index (QPI). This work shines a light on price changes in the market. As in 2020, this work will also include a supplementary report detailing the categories of costs saved and incurred by exam boards in 2021, in light of the pandemic.

Regulatory and Corporate Services (RCS)

1. 57. The Finance and Human Resources Committee met in November to consider detailed Finance and People based matters. The Finance Report is included as part of this agenda under separate cover, amended for comments and recommendations from the Committee. Key highlights from the information considered in detail at the Committee included:
   1. Agreement with Her Majesty’s Treasury of a 3-year Spending Review Settlement in line with the submission approved by the Board.
   2. Financial performance in 2021-22 forecast continued to be within the 2% underspend target as agreed with the Board at budget planning. However, pressure is noted in terms of increased levels of underspend from vacancy levels over the forecast in April 2022. The main reason for this is due to the number of roles filled through internal applications. Replacement investment cases are currently in train to ensure resources are redeployed in year or agreed with HM Treasury to move to 2022-23.
   3. A number of our vacant senior roles have been filled, including the position of Deputy Chief Regulator (Julie Swan) – a role which involves oversight of operational delivery and deputising for the Chief Regulator as required. The only vacant SCS post at Ofqual is now the newly reformed Executive Director for Standards, Assessment Analysis and Research, where the recruitment process is currently underway.
2. 58. Ofqual has recruited to a total of 100 posts in 2021. This has resulted in a net increase in headcount of 50 posts.
3. 59. The Committee also received a presentation from the Director, Digital, Data and Technology on how Value for Money is delivered from our investment in technology.
4. 60. The Chair of the Finance and Human Resources Committee will confirm those matters that the Committee may want the Board to be aware of as part of their update.
5. 61. Our Regulatory Compliance Team are currently supporting three Incident Management Teams in relation to VTQ awarding organisations. The team have recently concluded a thematic review into Remote Assessment and Remote Invigilation (RARI) and presented their findings to a multi-disciplinary team and are in the final planning stages of the Centre Assessment Standards Scrutiny Thematic Review.
6. 62. Our Public Facing Services continue to experience increased levels of contact when compared to pre-pandemic times.
7. 63. The Digital, Data and Technology (DDaT) and Security workstreams are on track to complete work to the planned timescales.

Chief Regulator engagement with students, teachers, stakeholders and the public

1. 64. In addition to Ofqual’s stakeholder engagement set out above, the Chief Regulator has:
   1. (a). visited a number of centres (Oasis Academy John Williams and Venturers’ Academy in Bristol; Hereward College in Coventry; Walsall College).
   2. (b). delivered a keynote speech at the Federation of Awarding Bodies Conference, in which she heralded a new era of co-regulation.
   3. (c). participated in a panel session at the Association of Colleges Conference.
   4. (d). given a number of media interviews, both in broadcast (e.g. BBC News, ITN) and in print (e.g. Tes, Schools Week).