Transparency data

Chief Regulator's report: 11 October 2023

Updated 31 July 2024

Applies to England

Date

11 October 2023

Title

Chief Regulator’s report

Report by

Dr Jo Saxton, Chief Regulator

Paper for information and discussion 

Recommendations

1. The Board is asked to note the matters reported.

Overview

2. As the Board is aware, I have tended my resignation to Sir Ian and, as Ofqual’s legislation requires, the Secretary of State. My 2 years here as Chief Regulator have been fascinating and rewarding. The opportunity to work with the brilliant Ofqual team and with you, the Ofqual Board, is a real privilege. Being part of an expert organisation, which speaks directly to my passion to help all students, made my decision to resign a difficult one. I will leave Ofqual in December and start as Chief Executive of UCAS in January 2024.

3. The summer series of exams and formal assessments was delivered successfully, despite novel security challenges alongside the typical range of issues arising. The second step of the return to pre-pandemic grading was implemented effectively across General Qualifications (GQs). Critically, public confidence in the results was upheld, with students generally accepting the approach to awarding. At this time, challenges to grades in respect of GQs appear to be lower than at the same point in time in 2019. This is the early indication from exam boards as we have sought to understand the risks in this area, but full official statistics will be published later this year.  The Higher Education sector showed flexibility by accepting students whose A level grades had fallen short of entry requirements.

4. The Action Plan to ensure the timely delivery of Vocational and Technical qualifications (VTQs) was successful, and features of it will become permanent parts of the summer series, contributing to vital parity of treatment.

5. A new Awarding Organisation Chairs’ Forum has now been convened by the sector, initiated in response to Ofqual’s focus on good governance, which we will attend in October.

6. Recruitment to fill the final key vacant leadership posts is progressing well. Ash Dobrock has now taken up post as Director of Communications, and Matt Trimmer as Executive Director for Strategy and Communications. Recruitment to fill permanently the post of ED of Standards, Research and Analysis, which Dr Ian Stockford is currently serving in, is underway, with interviews planned for November.

Corporate Plan Tracking

• Ofqual made 46 commitments across the 4 strategic priorities in the Corporate Plan 2022 to 2025. Delivery of many of the commitments is multi-year and accordingly will take place cumulatively across the full 3-year period.

Delivery of the 2023 summer series of exams and formal assessments

General Qualifications

• Exam boards’ marking of GCSE, AS and A level scripts was completed on time, supported by close scrutiny by and reporting to Ofqual. Exam boards successfully delivered the agreed approach to grading, implementing the policy of reinstating pre-pandemic standards, with a policy of protection to prevent headline national results falling below those of 2019, necessitated to uphold public perception of fairness given the disruption students had experienced. I spent a full day observing an exam board’s awarding (boundary setting) meeting and was reassured to see for myself how the approach we had determined was implemented.

• Ofqual’s National Reference Test (NRT) results (those from our longitudinal study of underlying performance of 16-year-olds in England in English and in maths), were published on GCSE results day, as they have been every year since the NRT began in 2017.  While the data confirmed that outcomes of the 2023 national reference test in English were statistically significantly lower than in 2017 at grade 4, as Chief Regulator I decided not to implement a downward direction to exam boards, because this would be counter to the wider policy intent of providing protection for students. There were no statistically significant changes in English at grades 5 and 7 compared with 2017, or at any grades in maths.

• Colleagues are closely monitoring exam boards’ post-results services. All priority reviews were completed by the UCAS advisory deadline of 6 September.

Students unable to sit exams due to disability

• For the second year, exam boards made a number of GQ awards based on alternative evidence, as a reasonable adjustment, to students unable to sit exams and assessments due to disability.

Vocational and Technical Qualifications 

• On 17 August we confirmed that, thanks to the collective efforts of everyone in the sector, Level 3 VTQ results had been delivered on time this year. Over 378,000 Level 3 results were issued to students across more than 575 vocational and technical qualifications, enabled by the new processes we piloted and monitored extremely actively this year.

• On 24 August Ofqual confirmed that more than 390,300 certificates across 131 Level 1, Level 1/2 and Level 2 qualifications had been awarded since March 2023.

• Unlike the summer of 2022 there were no ‘late’ results, and in any case where a result would not be returned by the August deadlines, all centres were aware and in agreement.

• VTQ results were presented nationally in the main results presentations that open the 2 results days, a key symbolic step forward in respect of parity between qualification types.

• A formal evaluation, including public survey, has now taken place to inform delivery arrangements for VTQs in 2024 and beyond. The goal now is to refine and embed the system changes that were initiated this year, so that they stand in perpetuity. In October the refined arrangements will be published. AOs will continue to be monitored and held to account by Ofqual.

Communications on summer results

• As the Board is aware, exceptional cabinet office agreement was secured for us to undertake a paid-for social media campaign to increase public awareness and understanding of the 2023 grading approach and its fairness. In the end 2 campaigns (one for parents and carers and one for 16 to 18-year-olds), went live in August and achieved reach across 13 million people, with 169,000 click throughs to the underpinning Ofqual student guide and grading documents. This campaign, we think, was critical in helping retain public confidence.

• On A level results day I gave interviews to Sky News, the BBC, ITN, TES, Schools Week and the Press Association. Our Chair, Sir Ian, gave an interview to Radio 5 live. Danielle Cartwright appeared live on Talk TV that evening. On GCSE results day, I was interviewed by the BBC, TES, Schools Week and Press Association. Where the network agreed, I undertook these in a school or college having met with students receiving results and understood reactions, as well as those of leaders. Danielle Cartwright was interviewed by Sky News and did a series of 4 interviews with different BBC local radio stations. Michael Hanton was interviewed live for BBC Coventry and Warwickshire’s Drivetime programme.

T levels 

• This summer saw the second certification for the three Wave 1 T Levels and the first certification for the 7 Wave 2 T Levels. 3,448 candidates received results, of which 3,119 passed the programme.

Apprenticeships

• Ofqual now regulates over 140 organisations offering apprenticeship End-Point Assessments (EPA), 83 of which have been recognised since 2020. Together they offer around 1,500 different End Point Assessments. Ofqual has recently reviewed the regulatory approach to EPA to align with our regulatory strategy. This has ensured that the dedicated resource that Ofqual has committed to work on apprenticeships is targeted to best effect.

November 2023 series – GCSE maths and English resits

• To date, as we understand it, no exam board has received contact from a school impacted by Reinforced Aerated Autoclaved Concrete (RAAC) reporting that it will impact their ability to hold November exams.

• As I reported to the Board in June, for the November series Ofqual will be requiring the exam boards to maintain the standard from summer 2023.

Regulation of National Assessments

KS2 2023 Reading test 

• Ofqual has requested a range of qualitative and quantitative evidence from the Standards and Testing Agency (STA) to support an analysis of the concerns relating to the 2023 KS2 reading test. Our findings will be reported in the National Assessments Annual Regulation Report in early 2024.

Digital Reception Baseline Assessment (RBA)

• Ofqual is closely monitoring the delivery of the first digital RBA, due to be administered in September 2024.

Re-procurement of the National Reference Test

• Ofqual’s National Reference Test has been operated by NFER since April 2015. The initial term was renewed, and cannot be extended beyond 31 August 2024.

• Activity to re-tender this contract is well progressed. Market-warming activity has been undertaken. A supplier shortlisting exercise concluded in June and invitations to tender will be issued on 20 October 2023.

Long term resilience arrangements

• After a joint consultation with DfE on long term resilience arrangements for qualifications, final rules and guidance were published on 25 September. The arrangements include approaches to GQs and VTQs used for progression to further and higher study, and will apply should there be an event with such severe consequences that exams and formal assessments need to be cancelled by government. Guidance has been provided on gathering evidence for GQs; for other qualifications, awarding organisations are required to consider whether resilience arrangements are needed and provide guidance relevant to their specific qualifications as appropriate.

AI regulation 

• Further to the speech that I gave at Wellington College in the summer, in September I wrote to all AOs explaining that using artificial intelligence (AI) as the sole marker of students’ work is not permitted by Ofqual’s General Conditions of Recognition. The high stakes nature of the marking process means it is not appropriate for AI to be used in this way. This is part of the precautionary principle led approach to mitigating this new risk to qualifications discussed with the Board.

• At the same time, given our commitment to innovation, Ofqual also initiated AI-related events with awarding organisations, inviting those that offer the greatest volumes of high stakes qualifications to an in-person event in October. This will be followed by a webinar for all AOs in the sector. These events are important elements of our co-regulatory approach to the regulation of AI in assessment, and will inform the risks and opportunities from its application in the sector.

• Ofqual has joined the Bourne-Epsom protocol on AI and is a member of the examinations and assessment group chaired by Lord Putnam within it.

• We have also responded on AI to Lord Evans, Chair of the Committee on Standards in Public Life and to the Rt Hon Baroness Stowell of Beeston MBE, Chair of the Lords Select Committee on Communications and Digital.