Research and analysis

ONS: Reasonable worst-case scenarios adjustment workbook, 4 August 2020

Paper prepared by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

• From: Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies
• Published: 5 February 2021

Documents

ONS: Reasonable worst-case scenarios adjustment workbook, 4 August 2020

PDF, 954 KB, 176 pages

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Details

Adjustment workbook prepared by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on the reasonable worst-case scenarios. This was presented at SAGE 50 on 6 August 2020.

This paper should be read alongside the paper estimating additional deaths to expand the RWCS, released under SAGE 50. It should also be considered in the context of the papers SPI-M-O: Update on planning and reasonable worst-case scenarios and SPI-M-O Expert narratives for potential Autumn and Winter Events statements, as released under SAGE 49.

These outputs should not be interpreted as a forecast of what is most likely to happen, but rather scenarios to inform planning at the time. Reasonable worst-case scenarios are considered for planning to ensure that we are able to respond to a range of scenarios. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly. You can find the most recent analysis from ONS in collaboration with other departments here.

These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.

Published 5 February 2021