Research and analysis

Potential effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on a COVID-19 epidemic, 25 February 2020

Paper prepared by Imperial College on the potential effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions.

• From: Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies
• Published: 12 June 2020

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Potential effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on a COVID-19 epidemic - 25 February 2020

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Details

Paper prepared by Imperial College on the potential effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on a COVID-19 epidemic. It was considered at SAGE 10 on 25 February 2020.

Alongside the SPI-M-O consensus view on school closures (SAGE 9) and a SPI-M-O discussion, this helped to inform the relative assessment of interventions in the published SAGE 12 (draft) and 14 (final) papers on “Potential impact of behavioural and social interventions on an epidemic of Covid-19 in the UK”.

These results should not be interpreted as a forecast, but rather illustrative outputs under a set of assumptions to inform wider discussion. These modelling outputs are subject to uncertainty given the evidence available at the time, and dependent on the assumptions made.

It should be viewed in context: the paper was the best assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. The picture is developing rapidly and, as new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly. Therefore, some of the information in this paper may have been superseded and the author’s opinion or conclusion may since have developed.

These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.

Published 12 June 2020