Research and analysis

Position statement on future of flight

Published 18 September 2018

Overview

The Department for Transport’s Science Advisory Council (SAC) met on 14 June 2017 to explore how the aviation sector (including government and industry) could identify which emerging technologies and disruptive business models might impact the increasing demand on aviation for short and long-haul travel.

The SAC also considered other impacts that could arise from adapting existing infrastructure and explored the issues around public acceptability.

Background

Globally, aviation is one of the fastest growing sectors with travel demand increasing. There were 268 million UK terminal passengers in 2016 — 7% greater than 2015 and over 8 times as many as in 1970.

Civil aviation has made enormous strides in safety, environmental impact, speed, range and cost. In the last 20 years, aircraft fuel consumption has been reduced by 15% and noise levels halved. The industry must continue to innovate to meet targets agreed by the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO), namely reductions of 75% in CO2, 90% in NOx and 65% in noise by 2050 relative to a new aircraft in 2000.

The UK has a strong aerospace and aviation industry, at the heart of which is innovation and emerging technology development.

The aviation sector is undergoing a revolution. Rapid advances in technology and new business models are driving fundamental changes to the way in which we get around. It is therefore becoming increasingly important for government and industry to consider other technologies beyond aircraft, such as computing power, connectivity, internet of things, data and artificial intelligence to ensure the future of flight.

In light of this, the Department of Transport welcomes this timely discussion on the future of flight, particularly with the publication of the Aviation Strategy call for evidence response in which the department is considering the needs of the emerging aviation technologies market, as well as how and where government should intervene.

New technologies, such as hybrid electric flight, are likely to gain momentum in the near future. In particular, the drones sector has seen significant growth in recent years with applications varying widely beyond leisure use. We are already seeing small, innovative SME companies in the UK using drone technology to great effect in the energy sector, agriculture and media industries. This is now being scaled up with ambitions to implement last mile delivery from companies such as Amazon.

Revolutionizing commuter passenger air transport using short take-off and landing (STOL) and vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) applications is also on the horizon as these require a significantly smaller infrastructure footprint and are being developed with autonomy in mind.

Notwithstanding this, there are still a number of challenges facing the aviation sector: competitiveness, performance and sustainability while working to meet challenging eco-efficiency goals.

Key considerations

The key drivers for new aircraft technology include: environmental regulations and targets; airlines demanding ever more fuel-efficient aircraft; and the maintenance of the UK’s competitive position in a growing market. Although existing airport infrastructure can be used for personal air transport, a key bottleneck for this technology will be ground infrastructure.

SAC members emphasised that a combination of closer working with the academic community, social intelligence gathering with the public, and horizon scanning capability from bodies such as the Aerospace Technology Institute could support government and industry to identify which emerging technologies are likely to have a place in the market.

The SAC also reflected on the need for the UK to take a more proactive approach in considering demonstrator style studies to support the UK in maintaining its strong position and encourage new technologies that could influence the future of aviation to benefit the UK as a whole. This will mean better collaboration between aircraft, airspace, airports and airlines.

The SAC highlighted that unmanned aircraft, in particular, have the potential to create a national centre of excellence in the UK. Drones offer vast opportunities in service industries and air taxis. However, one of the greatest challenges is operating alongside aircraft and beyond visual line of sight so there is a need to carry out further work in this area.

The SAC outlined that regional air transport has the potential to carry large volumes of passengers and would be cost-competitive in comparison to personal air mobility vehicles that are likely to attract the upper end of the market. As a consequence of these new modes of transport, there will be a need to ensure that regulations are able to adapt to support these developing technologies.

Challenges

Although significant advances have been made, the aviation sector faces a number of challenges such as reducing emissions, noise, carbon dioxide and oxides of nitrogen (NOx). We need to ensure that air travel demand can be managed while balancing the need to reduce the environmental impact. Currently, pure electric flight is constrained by electrical storage capacity, presenting a significant challenge for the aerospace and aviation industry.

At the SAC meeting, a number of key future challenges were discussed around cyber security, regulation and infrastructure. The government needs to consider whether regulatory frameworks are agile enough to take account of emerging technologies to quickly realise the benefits.

The point was made that the benefits of UK developed disruptive technology may not be felt through direct application or use in the UK, but through its export potential to other countries.

Personal air mobility vehicles are likely to be fully autonomous and this will present challenges around public acceptance, as is the case with autonomous road vehicles. Different groups in society respond to technology differently and the rate of adoption varies accordingly. Involving people in the design of new transport services is likely to help public acceptance.

There is also a challenge around integrating disruptive technologies with existing frameworks and the SAC advised that some amendments to current legislation will be likely as the use of light aircraft shifts from leisure to mass transit.

With disruptive technologies, such as vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) on the horizon, autonomy is not the difficult part as aircraft are already partly autonomous to some degree. Air traffic control, regulation (not just aviation regulation) and infrastructure (for example real estate and energy requirements) present greater challenges. Trials can help to understand these issues as well as customer acceptance, future demand and the measures that need to be taken to address them.

Conclusions

Rapid advances in technology and new business models are driving fundamental changes to the way that we get around. This has the potential to lead to aviation transport systems that are safer, more responsive to user needs, more accessible, and more efficient. However, the SAC agreed that there are also potential downsides and challenges to manage.

Globally, congestion is becoming an increasing problem and this means that, if personal air travel is to become a reality, we have to keep pace with demand and new patterns of travel. Government and the regulator have a role to play in facilitating innovation for new technologies to work in an open environment.

Recommendations

• The SAC notes that, whilst the technical and engineering challenges around low occupancy autonomous flying vehicles are substantial, there is a large degree of uncertainty around the timelines of the evolution of that technology. This is balanced by the substantial societal impact and potential for change (economic and mobility-wise) that autonomy in the air could bring. The SAC recommends that the department keeps a careful watching brief on the technical aspects of this topic and that the SAC revisits it in due course
• It is recognised that different groups in society respond to technology differently and the rate of adoption varies according. The SAC recommends that the department explore the current level of public acceptance around ‘flying taxis’ and the role that government and industry should play in addressing public perception and potential behavioural changes required for these technologies to be accepted.
• Any accident arising from use of new technology has the potential to result in a decline of the industry so it was recommended that work should be carried out to develop an evidence-base on public acceptance.