SAGE return for COVID-19 strategy: sequencing of social distancing behavioural and social interventions, 6 May 2020
Paper prepared by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE).
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Paper by SAGE on assessment of options to impact the reproduction number (R). It was considered at SAGE 33 on 5 May 2020 and finalised on 6 May 2020.
The paper is the assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.
This paper should be read alongside the following documents:
- SAGE 33 minutes, 5 May 2020
- SPI-M-O: Consensus statement on COVID-19, 5 May 2020
- SPI-M-O: Consensus view on the potential relaxing of social distancing measures, 4 May 2020
- TFC: Modelling and behavioural science responses to scenarios for relaxing school closures, 30 April 2020
The modelling content described in this document is taken from these papers; these contain more detailed caveats and assumptions.
This paper contains estimates of the reproduction number (R) for the UK, 4 nations and NHS England (NHSE) regions. Please note that estimates for the 4 nations and regions are the range of estimates from individual modelling groups, rather than combined consensus estimates of R (as published weekly from 29 May 2020).
More information on these estimates can be found in the SPI-M-O: Consensus statement on COVID-19, 5 May 2020.
These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.