SPI-M-O: Consensus statement on 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19), 20 March 2020
Consensus statement from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group (SPI-M-O) for the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE).
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Consensus statement from SPI-M-O on the coronavirus outbreak in the UK as of Friday 20 March 2020, including:
- likely progression of the outbreak
- response in London
- critical care capacity
The paper was discussed at SAGE meeting 18 on 23 March 2020.
This evidence was often compiled very rapidly during a fast-moving response and should be viewed in this context. The paper presented here is the best assessment of the evidence at the time of writing, and the conclusions were formed on this basis. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly. Therefore, some of the information in this paper may have been superseded at a later date.