Research and analysis

SPI-M-O: Consensus statement on 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19), 3 February 2020

Consensus statement from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group (SPI-M-O) for the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE).

• From: Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies
• Published: 5 May 2020

Documents

SPI-M-O: Consensus statement on 2019 novel coronavirus - 3 February 2020

PDF, 120 KB, 3 pages

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Details

Consensus statement from SPI-M-O on the coronavirus outbreak in the UK as of Monday 3 February 2020, including:

• number of cases
• reproduction number
• doubling time
• case fatality ratio
• reasonable worst case
• other factors

The paper was discussed at SAGE meeting 4 on 4 February 2020.

This evidence was often compiled very rapidly during a fast-moving response and should be viewed in this context. The paper presented here is the best assessment of the evidence at the time of writing, and the conclusions were formed on this basis. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly. Therefore, some of the information in this paper may have been superseded at a later date.

Published 5 May 2020