SPI-M-O: Consensus statement on COVID-19, 17 June 2020
Consensus statement from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group (SPI-M-O) for the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE).
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Consensus statement from SPI-M-O, on COVID-19. It was considered at SAGE 42 on 18 June 2020.
It should be viewed in context: the paper was the best assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. The picture is developing rapidly and, as new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.
Therefore, some of the information in this paper may have been superseded and the author’s opinion or conclusion may since have developed.
Please note that the footnote on page 3 should read: “The growth rate, λe^λt is the slope of the exponential curve y=e^λt, where y is the number of new infections, and t is time, given in days. This approximates to λ at small values of t.”
This paper contains estimates of the reproduction number (R) and growth rate for the UK, 4 nations and NHSE England regions.
R is an average value that can vary in different parts of the country, communities, and subsections of the population. It cannot be measured directly so there is always some uncertainty around its exact value.
Estimates of R and growth rates for Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and NHSE England regions are subject to greater uncertainty given the lower number of cases and increased variation.
Different modelling groups use different data sources to estimate these values using mathematical models that simulate the spread of infections. Some may even use all these sources of information to adjust their models to better reflect the real-world situation. There is uncertainty in all these data sources, which is why estimates can vary between different models, and why we do not rely on one model; evidence from several models is considered, discussed, combined, and the growth rate and R are then presented as ranges.
Given wide uncertainty ranges, it should not be concluded from estimates in this paper that R is higher or lower in different nations.
Find the latest R number and growth rates and further background.
These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.
Redactions within this document have been made to remove security markings.