SPI-M-O: Consensus statement on COVID-19, 18 November 2020
Consensus statement from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group (SPI-M-O) for the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE).
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Consensus statement from SPI-M-O on COVID-19. It was considered at SAGE 69 on 19 November 2020.
The paper is the assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.
This paper should be read alongside the paper ‘Notes on the festive period’, also tabled at SAGE 69, and the earlier paper ‘Key evidence and advice on celebrations and observances during COVID-19’ from SAGE 66.
This paper contains estimates of the reproduction number (R) and growth rate for the UK, 4 nations and NHS England (NHSE) regions.
Different modelling groups use different data sources to estimate these values using mathematical models that simulate the spread of infections. Some may even use all these sources of information to adjust their models to better reflect the real-world situation. There is uncertainty in all these data sources, which is why estimates can vary between different models, and why we do not rely on one model; evidence from several models is considered, discussed, combined, and the growth rate and R are then presented as ranges.
See latest R number and growth rates, and further background.
This paper also contains medium-term scenarios. These are not forecasts or predictions.
These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.
Redactions within this document have been made to remove any security markings.