SPI-M-O: Consensus statement on COVID-19, 20 May 2020
Consensus statement from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group (SPI-M-O) for the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE).
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Consensus statement from SPI-M-O, on COVID-19. It was considered at SAGE 38 on 21 May.
It should be viewed in context: the paper was the best assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. The picture is developing rapidly and, as new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.
Therefore, some of the information in this paper may have been superseded and the author’s opinion or conclusion may since have developed.
This paper contains agreed SAGE estimates for the reproduction number (R) in the UK, as published by SAGE at the time.
It also contains estimates of R for nations and regions of the UK. Please note that these are estimates from individual modelling groups, and not agreed consensus estimates from SAGE.
R is an average value that can vary in different parts of the country, communities, and subsections of the population. It cannot be measured directly so there is always some uncertainty around its exact value. Regional estimates are subject to greater uncertainty given the lower number of cases and increased variation.
Different modelling groups use different data sources to estimate R using complex mathematical models that simulate the spread of infections. Some may even use all these sources of information to adjust their models to better reflect the real-world situation. There is uncertainty in all these data sources, which is why R estimates can vary between different models, and why we do not rely on one model; evidence is considered, discussed and R is presented as a range.
Given wide uncertainty ranges, it should not be concluded from estimates in this paper that R is higher or lower in different regions or nations.
These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.
Redactions within this document have been made to remove any security markings.