SPI-M-O: Consensus statement on COVID-19, 3 June 2021
Consensus statement from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group (SPI-M-O) for the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE).
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Consensus statement from SPI-M-O on COVID-19. It was considered at SAGE 91 on 3 June 2021.
The paper is the assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.
This statement should be read alongside the following papers, also released under SAGE 91:
- University of Warwick: Estimating the transmission advantage for Delta variant (B.1.617.2), 3 June 2021
- Imperial College London: Delta variant (B.1.617.2) transmission in England - risk factors and transmission advantage, 1 June 2021
- LSHTM: Local area reproduction numbers and S-gene positivity, 1 June 2021
- LSHTM: Dynamics of Delta variant (B.1.617.2) in England NHS regions from importations, traveller-linked and non-traveller linked transmission, 1 June 2021
- JUNIPER: Estimates of R advantage at fine spatial scale, 2 June 2021
- JUNIPER: Comparing temporal trends in the demographics of S+ and S- COVID cases, 3 June 2021
This paper contains estimates of the reproduction number (R) and growth rate. See the latest R value and growth rates, and further background. The devolved administrations publish estimates for their own nations.
These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.
Redactions in this document have been made to remove any security markings.