Research and analysis

SPI-M-O: COVID-19: Preparatory analysis long term scenarios, 31 October 2020

Supporting document prepared by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group.

• From: Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies
• Published: 27 November 2020

Documents

SPI-M-O: Preparatory analysis long term scenarios - 31 October 2020

PDF, 231 KB, 3 pages

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Details

Paper from SPI-M-O on long-term winter scenarios. This explanatory paper provides some background information on the preparatory analysis conducted by SPI-M-O to support planning for the winter period.

It was not considered at SAGE, and is a supporting document to aid interpretation of long-term scenarios presented by the Government Chief Scientific Adviser on 31 October 2020.

Please note that these scenarios are not forecasts or predictions. They consider the preparatory work for one set of possibilities describing what might happen in a worst-case scenario, under the assumption of no further policy changes and increased seasonal contact patterns. Government requires estimates of the future epidemic that allow for short, medium, and longer-term planning for a range of operational and policy purposes.

These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.

Published 27 November 2020