Research and analysis

SPI-M-O: Medium-term projections, 23 March 2022

Medium-term projections prepared by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group (SPI-M-O).

• From: Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies
• Published: 8 April 2022

Documents

SPI-M-O: Medium-term projections, 23 March 2022

PDF, 912 KB, 7 pages

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Details

Medium-term projections from SPI-M-O. These were considered by the deputy Government Chief Scientific Adviser on 24 March 2022. The paper is the assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.

These are not forecasts or predictions, and cannot reflect recent changes in transmission that have not yet filtered through into surveillance data, such as hospital admissions and deaths. They do not account for the impact of future policy or behavioural changes that might affect transmission, nor seasonal effects that may affect transmission. The potential impact of vaccinations and school opening/closures is included. They are based only on the observable trends and data available at the time the projections were produced.

Projections are particularly uncertain during periods of transition, for example when significant interventions are introduced or relaxed.

See more information on the medium-term projections.

These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.

Published 8 April 2022